Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[BooneWX]

Pacific jet retraction, blocking, west coast ridge, cross polar flow. We need one more thing.

[wncsnow]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Pacific jet retraction, blocking, west coast ridge, cross polar flow. We need one more thing.

Split flow with an active subtropical jet please 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Split flow with an active subtropical jet please 

YOULL TAKE THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM AND YOULL LIKE IT

[wncsnow]

36 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

YOULL TAKE THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM AND YOULL LIKE IT

Northern stream = brown ground 

[GaWx]

 Compared to the 18 cold ENSO Jans since 1991: the mean of the last 12 runs of the 4 member CFS ensemble has the SE at the 3rd coldest Jan 7-13 for cold ENSO behind only 2011 and 1996 with an avg of ~4.5-5F BN:

 

Just one week ago, this is how much warmer the 12 run CFS ens mean was: ~2F AN

 Getting a week to average 5F BN is not the least bit easy!

 Precip is ~normal, which is good because that is wetter than the majority of cold periods since cold is more often than not associated with BN precip in the SE. Also, Jan 7-13 normal precip is pretty significant, especially well inland. So, it appears that there would be a decent shot at wintry precip during this period if the last 12 CFS runs have the right idea (possible Gulf moisture):

 

[SnowDawg]

GFS suite slowly taking baby steps towards the EPS over the last few runs. Time will tell if it folds entirely or they meet somewhere in the middle.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Northern stream = brown ground 

We’re in the season of giving (to everyone else except us foothills folk)

[NC_hailstorm]

GFS is finally getting a clue and progressing things,no digging and dumping in the west this run.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS 360 hour has about as negative H5 anomalies as I can recall on any run at 360 centered in the E US. NYC is at 534 dm, which is a whopping 14-15 dm BN! Keep in mind that that is a 50 member ensemble mean out 15 days, a very difficult modeled anomaly to have.

[GaWx]

 How about this earlier in the 12Z EPS (at 270)? This has E NC H5 at 20 dm BN!

 

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 How about this earlier in the 12Z EPS (at 270)? This has E NC at 20 dm BN!

 

Yay cold and dry!

[BooneWX]

Euro snow ensemble mean was nice

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies for Jan 6-12 has the 3rd shade of cold covering most of the E US vs just a tiny area in the 3rd shade mainly in NC the last 4 days. The third shade is 3-6C BN or 5.4-10.8F BN averaged over a full week! That’s easily the coldest EW map that I have saved in my files (all from the last 3 winters) in the SE for a week that doesn’t even start for 13 days. Note how far out this 3rd shade goes offshore as well as deep into FL: @pcbjr

 

Precip anomaly map is similar to the CFS map I posted earlier: this has NN in the SE, which is as much as I’d ask for with it this cold. The green in the N Gulf suggests the possibility of a Miller A Gulf low:

 
 The following week (1/13-19) is also cold though it only shows the 2nd shade of blue so far (still 20+ days out).

————-

Edit: The only other EE map I have that is comparable (slightly warmer SE) with most of the SE US in 5.4-10.8F BN is closer in at 9 days out (11/23/24) preceding Dec 2-8. How did it verify?

Wilmington, NC (map: ~-6F): actual was -10.9F (so, it wasn’t nearly cold enough)

Savannah (map ~-5.5F): actual was -9.7 (so, it wasn’t nearly cold enough)

 If this verification were to happen to be an indication of what’s to come Jan 6-12, the SE (at the very least) would verify colder then what today’s map shows. Also, if the strong cold signal maintains itself, look for a portion of this going into the 4th shade of blue on a run within a few days. The 4th shade starts at -10.8F.

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[StantonParkHoya]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! 

I felt the same way when we went through the late 90s snow drought. Then Jan 2000 came.

[jburns]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! 

Don’t forget March 1960.  Good snows only 65 years ago.  I still hear about those three Wednesdays and that we get our biggest snows in March.