Daniel Boone Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: La Nina cold usually dumps in the northern plains so it makes sense. Lr uses enso greatly but, medium I don't think so. It's output does look nina though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Idk. I’ll take the cold dumping in the plains on Ops for now. I could care less about a trough centered over New England. The former has a much better chance of delivering with a block than the latter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 27 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Idk. I’ll take the cold dumping in the plains on Ops for now. I could care less about a trough centered over New England. The former has a much better chance of delivering with a block than the latter. I would normally agree with you but the past 3 or 4 winters have had a parade of storms cutting West of us with the SE Ridge flexing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, wncsnow said: I would normally agree with you but the past 3 or 4 winters have had a parade of storms cutting West of us with the SE Ridge flexing. The past 3 or 4 winters have had Oct/Nov temps in Jan for the most part as well, so idk if we really have any track record to go on in recent years as far as that’s concerned with low placement + the cold dumping into the conus. This side of the world has been devoid of cold since a 2 week period in 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: They’re out brining roads between here and louisburg. Don’t think they even touched the brine supply last winter. W 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago PAC is running the show. Until this changes, models are irrelevant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago GFS doesn't get cold through 16 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Positive trends on. The Euro ens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Positive trends on. The Euro ens There are some differences between the operational GFS and EURO long range with the EURO being a better set up for us. Unfortunately, when there are two options on the table, it's best to avoid disappointment and go with the less wintry solution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago If the EPS had moved towards the GFS solution then I'd be super worried, instead it doubled down and improved an already great look. Even on the GEFS it looks more delayed than denied. GFS has been wrong on long range warmth at least twice already this season. Long ways to go, enjoy the model watching roller coaster lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: GFS doesn't get cold through 16 days. Yeah, it's likely seeing the MJO stalling in Ph 6 and crawling into 7 later. That's what it's solution looks like. If it were to be right, it's shut the blinds for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, Bevo said: PAC is running the show. Until this changes, models are irrelevant. MJO Ph 6 stall. GFS keying on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago 16 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive. Hopefully the GFS is being GooFuS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago 15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all Lots are though, including BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 26 minutes ago Share Posted 26 minutes ago 18z GFS is a clinic of how to establish a semi-permanent SER. Ugly doesn’t even do that run justice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Lots are though, including BAM We’ll see. There are conflicting suites and it’s not locked in at all. GEFS is trending towards the Op. MJO staying in phase 6… I do not like what I’m seeing. Will it be 70s in January like the 18z gfs insists? No. But with all the cold dumping into upper Midwest and a SER entrenched I do not see winter weather chances at all through week 1 of the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 16 minutes ago Share Posted 16 minutes ago Maybe a change is coming but I see the can kicking beginning. To me, we can kick is past the first week in Jan now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago The EPS has been and is currently beating the drum. Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a really nice pattern.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago The Euro AIFS looks good in the extended period also.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted just now Share Posted just now Euro at 12z is dang cold!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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