Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[kvegas-wx]

39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Just a lil run to run variability 

So somewhere between skiing and golf.  Got it.  

[BooneWX]

44 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

So somewhere between skiing and golf.  Got it.  

Fortunately no warm weather regardless. The last frame is a suppressive look with a monster 1045 high over the Ohio valley. No driving, chipping and putting, just nose bleeds and chapstick. 

[wncsnow]

Unfortunately the most likely scenario is cutters and lots of rain followed by a few days of cold then rinse and repeat

[stormwatcherJ]

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm preparing myself for. I refuse to get excited about any potential wintry weather anymore until I see it falling from the sky above me. 

[eyewall]

[strongwxnc]

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm preparing myself for. I refuse to get excited about any potential wintry weather anymore until I see it falling from the sky above me. 

Years ago I had a 24 hour rule of what models show vs excitement level. That has moved to zero hour and now time casting .


.

[olafminesaw]

Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS

[NorthHillsWx]

GEFS remained as cold as it’s been for the 21-24 period. Op has the storm but is actually much worse from an overall look with a quick breakdown of the western ridge allowing a very quick warmup around Christmas followed by cutters. Op runs are not to be trusted at all at range in this pattern. Are we going to see a 3-4 day cold shot followed by a major warmup or will we get several shots of cold after the initial one? Storm window remains centered around the 22nd (for any potential wintry). At least the timing remains very consistent 

[Upstate Tiger]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GEFS remained as cold as it’s been for the 21-24 period. Op has the storm but is actually much worse from an overall look with a quick breakdown of the western ridge allowing a very quick warmup around Christmas followed by cutters. Op runs are not to be trusted at all at range in this pattern. Are we going to see a 3-4 day cold shot followed by a major warmup or will we get several shots of cold after the initial one? Storm window remains centered around the 22nd (for any potential wintry). At least the timing remains very consistent 

At least we have something to watch and discuss this year instead of our favorite brand of rye grass.  

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

At least we have something to watch and discuss this year instead of our favorite brand of rye grass.  

Lol. I will point out GEFS ensembles do not have the storm at all. Snow mean hasn’t ticked up at all even with a few Op runs showing it. Still seems like a pipe dream at this point but there’s a chance 

[olafminesaw]

For a big storm,  fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going.

I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some  success this year with a similar system.

[olafminesaw]

Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)

[beanskip]

Much better, sharper 500mb look on the 12/21-22 system.

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)

Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming

I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.

The great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was like that.. that's what negative tilted Troughs can feature. Enough blocking upstream can cause it to tilt so much that it will be cold on the south side of a System and snowing while mild and rainy north side. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.

That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks.

From a cold air transport perspective that run was a thing of beauty. That would be a crazy north wind with temps crashing. Reminds me of that system a couple years ago around Christmas 

[NC_hailstorm]

The PNA is very positive,AO is negative let's see what happens.

[wncsnow]

Euro isn't particularly close to any winter weather through 15 days. 

[GaWx]

From FFC:

  WILL BRING FLOW AT 850MB FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A MASS   RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW. HOWEVER, SIMULTANEOUS TO THIS, STRONG   SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHICH   THE WEATHER WEENIES WILL KNOW BRINGS COLD AIR DAMMING (THE WEDGE) TO   OUR CWA.

[Shack]

This is interesting.  GFS now wants to close off a piece of energy in the southwest.  Big, longitudinally co-located surface high incoming from Canada. Squashes it into the Gulf, but, hey still a ways out.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

And… it’s gone. Onto January 

[wncsnow]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

And… it’s gone. Onto January 

Yep the long range looks like dog$#!+. 

December is pretty much toast. The odds of another snowless winter are increasing. 

[NorthHillsWx]

36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep the long range looks like dog$#!+. 

December is pretty much toast. The odds of another snowless winter are increasing. 

This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing 

[eyewall]

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing 

We were close with that clipper but the irony is I had to drive south to catch that lol. Might as well go for the RDU futility record at this point.

[BooneWX]

I think Jan is going to have to be our shot. That’s when the -EPO should be working in our favor the most. 

[Jonathan]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

That’s the power of the Aleutian Low/+PNA, the most efficient delivery mechanism of MB anomalies to the deep SE as opposed to New England. That’s why I always prefer an Aleutian Low/+PNA in the means, something we hadn’t had that much of the last few winters til the last 2 weeks.

And what has that gotten us? The same thing we get when the phases are flipped.  We got punk'd by the models yet again. December was our shot and we flopped. Christmas week is now warming up on the models then we absolutely BAKE after Christmas. So then, in mid December we're now chasing phantom cold for mid January after this post-Christmas "thaw" (more like bbq) BUT by then, the Nina will have strengthened and taken hold so it's ultimately too late at that point. It's warm and dry from here on out with these little 1-2 day cold spurts. But once the SE ridge takes hold in the next week or two we won't even have to worry about those little 2-day cold shots anymore.

It's ok though, I'm sure winter 25-26 will be rockin'. 

[PackGrad05]

December isn't over yet...   
Can't remember the last time we tracked a storm from 10 days out.  I think something will pop up and be a "within 5 day score" if we end up getting anything.
Don't need wall to wall cold... just the cold and moisture to link up at the right time.

[BooneWX]

We’re getting ready to traverse through a reasonably high amplitude phase 6. All is going as planned. Phase 7 isn’t all sunshine and roses either for the upper and mid south. Patience as we propagate into high amplitude 8 and 1. It’s still autumn on the calendar.