Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[LakeNormanStormin]

After 1,039 days without snow, this is a sight I never take for granted.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I would say this early December event overperformed Nicely.

[eyewall]

14 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

After 1,039 days without snow, this is a sight I never take for granted.

Congrats! That is a nice little treat! The RDU streak will close in on the record soon as there is nothing on the horizon for now.

Best I could do is:
https://fb.watch/weKgVBcDsF/

 

[LakeNormanStormin]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Congrats! That is a nice little treat! The RDU streak will close in on the record soon as there is nothing on the horizon for now.

Best I could do is:
https://fb.watch/weKgVBcDsF/

 

Thanks! Hope you all get yours soon!

After 1 AM, I was beginning to lose hope. None of the radar returns over us were reaching the ground. And then at 1:45, the bottom dropped out. These flakes were fat, and the accumulation was some of the softest snow I've experienced here. It was like touching cotton candy.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Thanks! Hope you all get yours soon!

After 1 AM, I was beginning to lose hope. None of the radar returns over us were reaching the ground. And then at 1:45, the bottom dropped out. These flakes were fat, and the accumulation was some of the softest snow I've experienced here. It was like touching cotton candy.

That’s awesome! Looks like 1/2”+ 

So jealous of all who got under that band. Accumulating Snow before Christmas and a cold week with multiple nights in teens… That’s a mega treat here 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

The futility streak keeps rolling at RDU.

I know you got excited when that band looked like it was moving this way… 

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1863927984136032677?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Snow cover visible from satellite! Definitely an over performer 

[eyewall]

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know you got excited when that band looked like it was moving this way… 

yeah and then it evaporated lol. I think we are getting the record.

[NorthHillsWx]

Snow reports showing up from Wilmington to ocean isle

[Met1985]

Congratulations to all those who saw snow! I know it's been a long time coming!

[eyewall]

This pattern unfortunately falls apart soon and we torch around the 10th.

[olafminesaw]

Merry Christmas 

[wncsnow]

We're on to 2025

[PackGrad05]

Way too early to be punting to 2025.  

[Upstate Tiger]

9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Way too early to be punting to 2025.  

Would seem there is a lot of sea surface and atmospheric variance leading to wild swings in the pattern for the next couple of months...

[strongwxnc]

28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Merry Christmas 

 

The tax is steep when the first days of a month and below normal. Lets hope, like with the cold, it backs off as is closer to normal...

[olafminesaw]

7 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Would seem there is a lot of sea surface and atmospheric variance leading to wild swings in the pattern for the next couple of months...

The analog that I've heard a lot is '13-'14 which also had some wild December swings before a snowy second half of the winter. It did not have a December cold snap to speak of like this year however.

[wncsnow]

[Upstate Tiger]

18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The analog that I've heard a lot is '13-'14 which also had some wild December swings before a snowy second half of the winter. It did not have a December cold snap to speak of like this year however.

I’ve seen some good analogs too.  

[Upstate Tiger]

55 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

The tax is steep when the first days of a month and below normal. Lets hope, like with the cold, it backs off as is closer to normal...

I volunteered to put a trampoline together for the grandkids on Christmas Eve.  I’m sure we will see record cold that night.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mid-winter cold tonight

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Thanks for posting. A bit of caution is advised because of the individual weeks generating that cold overall Dec map. The only reason it’s cold for the month as a whole in much of the E US is the very cold 12/2-8. The three weeks after that are all mainly near normal in much of the SE. I’d take NN though. Much better than AN.

Today’s run will be out pretty soon.

[GaWx]

1. The brand new Euro Weeklies (which start Dec 9th) are mainly warmer than yesterday’s run in the SE US in week by week comparisons. They are all mainly only slightly AN (~+2 to +3 vs 1991-2020 mean) meaning they’re not showing a blowtorch and still may not fully negate the very cold early Dec:

2. This 30 day map is reflecting a warmer last 3 weeks of Dec but also dropping a cold Dec 2nd:

[BooneWX]

The EPO isn’t definitively positive like I expected it to be considering the long range guidance. History says to expect the warmth and expect it to sustain but those Pacific patterns are awfully fickle and stagnant. All eyes on that signal the next few days because if it doesn’t go +, it’s hard to buy the sustained warmth theory. I feel like the warmth we have coming up will be more of a late autumn warm, not the typical heat miser (’tis’ the season) warm but of course, that’s very liable to be wrong. 

[Met1985]

Yeah we've already seen the models bust from super warm to what we have currently.  And I'll say things have been sneaking up on the models of late. I think this is a very fluid pattern that has already overachieved in a lot of ways. 

[wncsnow]

Christmas on the lawn? 

[NorthHillsWx]

Even if it warms up for a week or two looking like most areas will have had multiple nights in the teens (more than we had all last winter), most of two weeks with lows below freezing, and accumulating snow in parts of the piedmont before Christmas. Add in a very strong start to the ski season in the mountains and this is an excellent start to winter. My bar is exceedingly low but a period of sustained cold at least gives me hope after what we’ve been through