Daniel Boone Posted Saturday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Euro not even close Yeah, holding energy back in the SW like it always has. That apparently wasn't worked on during recent upgrade from the way it looks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:37 PM INCOMING (12z CMC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:39 PM Almost times up the northern piece of energy and the southern, but not quite. Ice ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:43 PM Trough east of HI = ridge over the SW. The baja low will kick east. We'll see some waffling with all models on this one for a little while but it's legit possibility. Way too slow and won't make in time with the cold and a complete dud. A little slow and more ice than snow as the mid level cold pulls out and all we have left is in-situ low level cold air. Just fast enough and could be a classic I-85 snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:46 PM Welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Saturday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:47 PM 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Welp That's a "too slow" option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM 12z Canadian looks ripe. I'll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM I’ll be curious to see what all of the ensembles say. We have a signal, and that’s good for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:37 PM 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: I’ll be curious to see what all of the ensembles say. We have a signal, and that’s good for now. Good compared to the last 2 winters but highly unlikely to produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:24 PM In ATL for the week and about to go walking with friends in beautiful upper 40s/light winds/sunny. This wx is fantastic. I hope it lasts for awhile. If not, I’m still glad we’re getting this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Best we can do is: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 05:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 11:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:16 AM Latest model consensus continues suggesting BN temperatures dominating much of the 1st half of December in the SE US. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:37 PM All I see is 4 or 5 more days of at or below average then warm up and rain. What happens after that TBD. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:35 PM The models keep showing the trough axis moving west to the lakes around that 10-12th timeframe. A Miller A before Christmas would feed families. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:19 PM Eric Webb: Ironically, 2 things that are normally associated with milder winters in the eastern US & were cited by some as reasons for a milder winter again this year (westerly QBO & a strong stratosphere polar vortex/NAM) are actually going to be working to try & keep it colder this winter via enhancing the -EPO/+TNH pattern. Every situation is different & interactions between most teleconnections are non-linear. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1863196442069754159?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:50 PM There’s a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM NWS Raleigh- “While model consensus favors generally just a couple or four tenths of an inch liquid equivalent, a combination of cold ground temperatures and high snow ratios may allow for a light coating of measurable snow favored over the srn Piedmont and wrn Sandhills.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Is anyone else not able to pull up a current potential snowfall map for RAH? The dates I keep getting are from April 2024: https://www.weather.gov/rah/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 02:26 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:26 AM Model consensus is actually very high of snow showers making it east of the mountains Tuesday morning. Obviously not much but it could wreck the snowless streaks at several reporting sites and I’m sure anyone would take a pre Christmas dusting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted Monday at 07:54 AM Share Posted Monday at 07:54 AM 9 hours ago, marsman said: Is anyone else not able to pull up a current potential snowfall map for RAH? The dates I keep getting are from April 2024: https://www.weather.gov/rah/winter I wasn't able to pull up any updated maps on that page either, but I was able to find the map below in the statewide maps section. https://www.weather.gov/rah/nc#snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 01:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:36 PM It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:02 PM 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: It would seem we are likely going to be in the wait for the January pattern change after all. Eric Webb seems a little more optimistic this time around at least, thinking there's about a 50/50 chance of extended cold periods in the long term, vs staying a more typical la Nina torch pattern Yeah, mid to long range is looking like crap again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:53 PM HRRR is pretty aggressive with the snow band tonight. Definitely could be interesting with extremely cold temps even with light amounts! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM 44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: HRRR is pretty aggressive with the snow band tonight. Definitely could be interesting with extremely cold temps even with light amounts! Part of me doesn't want our streak to end on a dusting. The Triad and Raleigh should be too dry to have any accumulation, but possibly a dusting for the East side of Charlotte and areas to the north and East (Albemarle, Rockingham, Salisbury) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Monday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:56 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Monday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:03 PM Allan Huffman: I think the area with the best chance to see flakes tonight will be bounded by I I-77 to the W, HWY 421 to the E, I-40 to the N and Hwy 74 to the S. So from CLT to say Pinehurst to Pittsboro to Yadkinville A dusting is possible. Best time for a flurry in Triangle probably 1-5 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Monday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:33 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:54 PM 19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: NAM and HRRR pretty much agree with it being centered on Albermarle or so. I am debating if it is worthwhile to head that way for such a minor event. The intriguing thing is a meso low could form to the south of that region which could enhance things a bit if that is true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:59 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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