Wow Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 With nearly 20 years of GFS (AVN/MRF) running out to 384 hrs, the Euro is finally ready to pull the trigger. This will be fun to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Now that's the kind of Hazard Map from the CPC that I like to see (11/22-11/28) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 The 360 hr Euro doesn't disappoint! That's an active STJ with arctic air diving south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze. November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU. The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 First fantasy storm of the season ! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 2 hours ago, Wow said: First fantasy storm of the season ! Start the thread (Its only a joke folks) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 On 11/16/2024 at 12:23 PM, PackGrad05 said: Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze. November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU. The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that. While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days. 30 just north of Kernersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 16 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: While RDU did not freeze this morning, many — if not most — rural areas nearby did hit 32. RDU is a heat island these days. I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet? Not at any of the long term climate stations. Probably some isolated stations have dropped to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Pattern is certainly more interesting to close the month. Could we see some snow in NYC for the parade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Pattern looks interesting the first week of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 That's it? Man the last few years have really ripped your spirits to shreds. The pattern looks f'ing AWESOME!! Where are my weenies at? 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Cross polar flow, +PNA, Greenland block…. I’m cautious but the vibes are improving for me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 In a general sense, I feel like winters that fire off like we may fire off usually end well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 May head to the Dec 2018 storm thread just to feel tingly again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Looks like a lot of cold rain for now. yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Looks like a lot of cold rain for now. yay While I’m hoping we score a coup, most ensembles have a little bit of SER action to counter the dump of cold. I’ll never bet against the SE ridge but I’m thinking the details are very far from being ironed out. A stretched PV would go a long way in squashing the ridge a bit more and it’s too early to resolve that. Albeit - it wouldn’t hurt to lay down some snowpack up north. It certainly helps our odds in the better climo months. Still think that 3rd/4th timeframe bares watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 25 minutes ago, BooneWX said: While I’m hoping we score a coup, most ensembles have a little bit of SER action to counter the dump of cold. I’ll never bet against the SE ridge but I’m thinking the details are very far from being ironed out. A stretched PV would go a long way in squashing the ridge a bit more and it’s too early to resolve that. Albeit - it wouldn’t hurt to lay down some snowpack up north. It certainly helps our odds in the better climo months. Still think that 3rd/4th timeframe bares watching. It bares watching but like you said- the SE Ridge has been killer recently and its going to be a problem all winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats. I’ve been posting in the main La Niña forecasting thread. However, these posts have been addressing changes from run to run of overall US temperatures/heating degree days (especially E US) on EPS but also some GEFS runs as opposed to narrowed to SE US temperatures or winter storm threats. As a part of that I’ve been following natural gas mkt prices, which are often a good gauge of E US ensemble HDD forecasts in week 2. Example: today’s NG high was the highest since Jan! I also in there post about various indices and ENSO SSTa’s. Looking forward to the cooldowns! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: It bares watching but like you said- the SE Ridge has been killer recently and its going to be a problem all winter. I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 hours ago, Wow said: I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it! My "negativity" has been right unfortunately for the past 3 years. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 0Z GFS has FIVE Canadian highs bring cold air down into the SE US! That’s a relative rarity even for the GFS. The NC mtns get 4 different NW flow accumulating events! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Ensembles look pretty good first week of December. Ops are showing SER and delayed cold over the mountains. Not a terrible pattern at least. STJ looks active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Ensembles look pretty good first week of December. Ops are showing SER and delayed cold over the mountains. Not a terrible pattern at least. STJ looks active Feels like the last time cold air made it over the mountains without moderating considerably was the 2022 Christmas arctic blast. Certainly nothing with any staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Ensembles showed cold coming all last season in the long range while the ops showed the Ridge hanging out. We all know which one won. Hopefully we actually see a true winter pattern for the first time since January 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 BAMWX: “On this note, I suspect the fail of La Niña is playing a major role in preventing the Eastern/SE ridge that has been so dominant to be prevalent. Stretched polar vortex also setting up in the right spot is a big key too. Fun pattern for #Winter lovers approaching.” https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1859555444592644424?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 The Euro was really close to something interesting for the forum next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 5 hours ago, wncsnow said: Ensembles showed cold coming all last season in the long range while the ops showed the Ridge hanging out. We all know which one won. Hopefully we actually see a true winter pattern for the first time since January 2022. ^^^This. If there’s even a hint of SER on an Ops model it needs to be taken seriously 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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