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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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Unless we have a big pattern change, I don't see a frost or freeze happening to us on the coastal plain this month. We have gone thru November before without a frost and freeze. I really hope we don't this year.

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14 hours ago, yotaman said:

Unless we have a big pattern change, I don't see a frost or freeze happening to us on the coastal plain this month. We have gone thru November before without a frost and freeze. I really hope we don't this year.

Don’t see it happening here either before thanksgiving week at least. 

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Interesting latter part of GFS run. Looks like a pattern flip. Super cold third week of Nov. usual caveat of it being an Op

It's possible. If the EPO is able to extend over the Top and dislodge the Cold and if timed right can drop into the Eastern States. Models are hinting at a -NAO to a degree as well. Odds are low because of the strongly negative PDO and +QBO however ,if you look at it historically. Of course, last Winter went against what would be expected much of the time so, who knows. Sadly, imo, the -PDO is what fouled it up.

We need strong cooling of those western PAC SST'S first and foremost and warming in the GOA. 

   In the Atlantic we need cooling of the SST'S off Newfoundland to help support a 50-50 and -NAO. Just this Antique Forecasters Opinion.

 

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2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

RDU looks to break the record for latest date of first freeze.  Record is November 28, set in 2009.  I don't see it happening before then.

I would agree. Another warm winter incoming.

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Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below:

Average snowfall : 8.23

Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49

Mid 20 Nov : 9.42

Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79

Top 20 Oct : 6.71

Mid 29 Oct : 9.93

Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06

 

October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year 

 

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3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below:

Average snowfall : 8.23

Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49

Mid 20 Nov : 9.42

Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79

Top 20 Oct : 6.71

Mid 29 Oct : 9.93

Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06

 

October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year 

 

This appears to be the new normal, snow is just getting to be a less frequent event over time.  I have stopped thinking about it and have just moved on.  Being in Columbia SC this seems like the best way to preserve my sanity.  I wish all of you snow people luck and maybe a miracle will happen and I get flurries this year while y'all get 18".

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