CentralNC Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: There is no clock anymore. Only a dark, snow less void. Just remember in this chaotic flow, don't trust any model outside of 7 days. Heck maybe even 5 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 00z GFS looks to be trending in the right direction for a little snow but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 00z Euro is north, rain for the coastal plains for next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 For RDU El Niños that were moderate or stronger: snowfall: -31 winters since 1888-9 -Nov avg SN: 0.2” -Dec avg SN: 0.9” -Jan 1-20 avg SN: 1.1” -Jan 21-31 avg SN: 0.9” -Feb avg SN: 2.4” -Mar avg SN: 1.7” -Apr avg SN: 0.4” -Nov-Jan 20 avg SN: 2.2” -Jan 21-Apr avg SN: 5.4” -So, only 29% of SN through Jan 20th & 71% Jan 21st+ -Thus, a very long way to go. -Regarding 6”+ storms, median date not til Feb 10-11 -More 6”+ events in Mar than Feb or Jan! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 How long did those nino's hold though? Isn't ours weakening fast? Read we are headed quickly towards a nina in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, CaryWx said: How long did those nino's hold though? Isn't ours weakening fast? Read we are headed quickly towards a nina in Spring. Next season we should be back in NINA I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GSP's morning AFD on next week'sa potential event. The forecaster put is about as good as you could... An interesting set up is showing up in guidance by D7, but still a lot more questions than answers this far out before going into the nitty gritty details as differences between model guidance suggests they don`t know what the heck is going to happen with the sensible weather beyond this upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to begin the period at or slightly above normal on Friday before below-normal values settle in through the rest of the medium range following Friday`s system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, CaryWx said: How long did those nino's hold though? Isn't ours weakening fast? Read we are headed quickly towards a nina in Spring. No, it is the opposite. The daily is still high end strong. That’s a good bit stronger than the average for being almost in mid January. My stats don’t even consider whether or not El Niño weakens quickly. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The Op Euro warms up quickly after the miss next week. Not a good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EPS mean is way SE of the OP with the low track. Members are all over the map, so no real consensus forming at this point. If you take the GFS progressive bias and the Euro's amplification bias, an in the middle solution might work for a light/moderate event for at least part of the forum. I'm not leaning one way or the other at this point, there's probably still big model shifts coming as these two big storms set the playing field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Op Euro warms up quickly after the miss next week. Not a good look Looks temporary. Blocks still in place and another shot on its way SE with PNA starting to push north. With that block and 50/50 in place, if the PNA can pump enough for a wave to dig I'd say that's a threatening look for around the 20th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 hours ago, CentralNC said: Just remember in this chaotic flow, don't trust any model outside of 7 days. Heck maybe even 5 days. 100% full proof weather model 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Looks temporary. Blocks still in place and another shot on its way SE with PNA starting to push north. With that block and 50/50 in place, if the PNA can pump enough for a wave to dig I'd say that's a threatening look for around the 20th. Will the cold make it over the apps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 30 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: model guidances suggests they don`t know what the heck is going to happen News flash 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Will the cold make it over the apps though Your guess is as good as mine. We're talking OP models at 10 days, we'd be just as well off throwing cans of blue and orange paint agaisnt the wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Your guess is as good as mine. We're talking OP models at 10 days, we'd be just as well off throwing cans of blue and orange paint agaisnt the wall. The threat next week is 7 days or less now though. Models are all jackpotting middle TN right now. Hopefully the cold push will be stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The threat next week is 7 days or less now though. Models are all jackpotting middle TN right now. Hopefully the cold push will be stronger. We get it. That storm is likely not going to give you what you want. But the winter/early spring in WNC is likely not hanging on it. There’s still a very long way to go, especially with it being a strong Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, GaWx said: We get it. That storm is likely not going to give you what you want. But the winter/early spring in WNC is likely not hanging on it. There’s still a very long way to go, especially with it being a strong Nino. We can't afford to keep wasting opportunities or getting close calls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Latest GLAAM forecast from CFS says El Niño like pattern returns late Jan til at least mid Feb: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 16 hours ago, CentralNC said: Just remember in this chaotic flow, don't trust any model outside of 7 days. Heck maybe even 5 days. 5 days is still too long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 z GFS is looking much improved for our 15th threat. The trend has been to bring the cutter further south and East which in turn has pulled the cold air further South and East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 36 minutes ago, Bevo said: 5 days is still too long. 12 hours out is to long . LOL 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 All of the 12Z runs so far have little to no snow for NC or SC for the next 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Euro is another swing and miss for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EPS again says it's too early at this point to give up on the threat. Mean low pressure track is south and east of the OP. Many members are establishing a defined low as early as the northern gulf/FL panhandle area. Then it's a mixed bag of inland and offshore tracks. Snow means increased a bit over the mountains from 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Euro is another swing and miss for most Good news is Euro is at least an ICE STORM up this way. I'll take that over a cold rain anyday.... also the EPS has many members of accumulating snows this run... hopefully the gfs tags along soon.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EPS has been ticking in the right direction with that storm. I guess im just glad there’s at least cold air in the vicinity this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now