Upstate Tiger Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: November is almost definitely going to be way above average. This winter will likely follow suit. Any snow outside the mountains will be thread the needle type deals per usual. Most of the foothills and western piedmont of NC are already in their longest snow drought in recorded history. I think I’m going to go George Constanza and do the opposite this winter. In other words, I’m going to project no hope, and constantly reject any modeling that shows anything but AN temps. So, I agree with your post, November will be a torch. December and January likewise. There will be no snow south of the Mason Dixon line below 5,000’. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: November is almost definitely going to be way above average. This winter will likely follow suit. Any snow outside the mountains will be thread the needle type deals per usual. Most of the foothills and western piedmont of NC are already in their longest snow drought in recorded history. Probably right. With so many Climate Driver's lined up for warmth in the Eastern US , it has a shot of being one of if not The warmest Winter on Record particularly in the MA and SE.. maybe driest, God forbid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 3 hours ago, chris21 said: The 18z GFS is absolutely bonkers and involves the biggest North American ridge I can remember in November. Extremely unlikely to pan out that way given climo. This isn’t your fathers climate anymore. If you’re not a kid you may remember that from an Oldsmobile commercial, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 Absolute heinous torch pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 Absolute heinous torch pattern We had a little taste last week of some cooler weather. Had one morning at 32. Going to be a while before it happens again. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 2 hours ago, strongwxnc said: We had a little taste last week of some cooler weather. Had one morning at 32. Going to be a while before it happens again. . We haven't had a hard freeze yet. May not until Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 There’s a legitimate shot the mower doesn’t go into the garage for good until January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 It's been nice to not have to run HVAC for the most part at least... The 0z GEFS had less than .5" for the western Piedmont/mountains over the next two weeks. Don't think I've ever seen totals that low for that long of a timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 You could basically cut and past the image below from the past few winters. You would think the parade of storms crashing into the Pacific NW and BC would cease at least for 1 winter. This is for 11/13 but you can pick any date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Absolute heinous torch pattern This verifying in the near term as well as in the means through the winter would not be the least bit surprising in the SE. There are always occasional BN periods (like the period we had earlier this month) and thus there will be some this winter (cold periods will keep stepping down over the next couple of months), but I’m expecting AN to dominate over BN in the SE until further notice thanks to La Niña and the very strong -PDO/WPacific marine heatwave. In addition the solar peak, if anything, may tend to limit high latitude blocking in the means. There have been only 6 -NAO winters over the last 35 and all were during low mean sunspots (<35). Currently they are in the high 100s. Regardless, winter is always my favorite season as it is easily the coldest along with the lowest dewpoints in the means and is the most interesting due to major swings at times. The warmest winter on record is so much better to me than the coolest summer. I have much more hope for a change during 2025-6, when the CANSIPS has recently been suggesting a Modoki El Nino to get established next summer fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 4 hours ago, GaWx said: This verifying in the near term as well as in the means through the winter would not be the least bit surprising in the SE. There are always occasional BN periods (like the period we had earlier this month) and thus there will be some this winter (cold periods will keep stepping down over the next couple of months), but I’m expecting AN to dominate over BN in the SE until further notice thanks to La Niña and the very strong -PDO/WPacific marine heatwave. In addition the solar peak, if anything, may tend to limit high latitude blocking in the means. There have been only 6 -NAO winters over the last 35 and all were during low mean sunspots (<35). Currently they are in the high 100s. Regardless, winter is always my favorite season as it is easily the coldest along with the lowest dewpoints in the means and is the most interesting due to major swings at times. The warmest winter on record is so much better to me than the coolest summer. I have much more hope for a change during 2025-6, when the CANSIPS has recently been suggesting a Modoki El Nino to get established next summer fwiw. Should I just go ahead and start the Countdown to Winter 2025-2026 thread now? 3 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 On 10/28/2024 at 6:03 PM, buckeyefan1 said: He told the truth. Times were tough way back during the frozen golden years of my younger days Heck, it was so cold and snowy back in the day, that the Ohio river froze two winters in a row and I walked across it both times Was it uphill one way, or both... or maybe for you it was all downhill both ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 I'm moving out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Should I just go ahead and start the Countdown to Winter 2025-2026 thread now? It’s almost a lock RDU sets the record with our third straight snowless winter! (I’m taking your pessimistic approach this year maybe I’ll reverse jinx it) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 Probably no snow outside the mountains folks. Our climate has changed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Probably no snow outside the mountains folks. Our climate has changed. Heck even upslope folks who used to get 100+ seasons regularly are getting half that and less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Should I just go ahead and start the Countdown to Winter 2025-2026 thread now? CANSIPS (Sep 30th run): Modoki El Niño starting next summer? New run will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 Jeezeee the 18z GFS is one of the most ridiculous heat domes I’ve ever seen in November! 80’s through the run and not a single low in the 40’s here! Absolute craziest torch I’ve ever seen modeled in November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Jeezeee the 18z GFS is one of the most ridiculous heat domes I’ve ever seen in November! 80’s through the run and not a single low in the 40’s here! Absolute craziest torch I’ve ever seen modeled in November I seem to remember 2019 being similar and we all know what a shitshow that winter was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Moved to Lake Norman in 2015. Amazing how those first few winters were so climatological in terms of winter snowfall for the area. Even if it was one snow event. It was four to five inches of great powder. Have not had a drop of the good stuff here since 1/21/22. Please bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 On the bright side, a lot can change but it’s sort of clear what kind of pattern we’re likely looking at. I think it’s so much easier to head into winter with that in mind. Last year felt like a rug pull since we had an El Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 81.4 at the moment. More 80s than 40s here this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Logged on for the first time in months since today is November 1, and was excited to start talking about winter. "We'll try again next year" seems to be the theme already lol. May be a new record for earliest punt of a season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 70% of the state is now included in this weeks drought monitor, including the SW mountains of NC… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 70% of the state is now included in this weeks drought monitor, including the SW mountains of NC… La Niña climo once the tropics get quiet is not kind to especially the SE half of the SE US for rainfall with SE ridge typically pretty dominant and the lack of a strong ST jet. A general BN rainfall pattern is forecasted by the model consensus through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 New CANSIPS for DJF is similarly dry to recent runs and is drier in terms of both anomalies and especially absolutes the more SE one is like myself and @pcbjr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: La Niña climo once the tropics get quiet is not kind to especially the SE half of the SE US for rainfall with SE ridge typically pretty dominant and the lack of a strong ST jet. A general BN rainfall pattern is forecasted by the model consensus through December. 12z run of GFS drops 0.00” here through November 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: New CANSIPS for DJF is similarly dry to recent runs and is drier in terms of both anomalies and especially absolutes the more SE one is like myself and @pcbjr Yeah it's dry enough already, don't need it drier... not complaining about the warmth though, except that I'm stuck indoors at work and can't enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 6 minutes ago, gtg947h said: Yeah it's dry enough already, don't need it drier... not complaining about the warmth though, except that I'm stuck indoors at work and can't enjoy it After the 11” I got from Debby along with the very wet summer overall, I’ve been fine with the dry since and loved the lower RH of that cool period in Oct. But I agree that’s it’s now dry enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 RE the KRDU temp obs- I’ve noticed that my readings have been MUCH more in line with RDU since that June heat wave and honestly are probably 1-3 degrees above what the airport’s reading has been as of late! I wonder if the summer drought and peak sun angle heating was the culprit. I still don’t believe RDUs June readings that consistently beat out Fayetteville on a daily basis! It doesn’t make sense to be so high above other regional obs that consistently only to fall in line later in the fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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