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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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Today's ENSO update from IRI:

The CPC ENSO Outlook predicts a clear preference for La Niña onset in Sep-Nov (66% chances) with continuation until Jan-Mar, 2025 (57% chances), and then a return to ENSO-neutral state during boreal spring of 2025. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show late, weak and temporary La Niña conditions in Oct-Dec, and Nov-Jan. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions that remain dominant during the boreal winter and spring of 2025.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Today's ENSO update from IRI:

The CPC ENSO Outlook predicts a clear preference for La Niña onset in Sep-Nov (66% chances) with continuation until Jan-Mar, 2025 (57% chances), and then a return to ENSO-neutral state during boreal spring of 2025. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show late, weak and temporary La Niña conditions in Oct-Dec, and Nov-Jan. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions that remain dominant during the boreal winter and spring of 2025.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

Yeah it looks like the moderate or strong Nina many were forecasting is not going to happen. Have to think it doesn't hurt our chances for wintry weather. 

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4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Yeah it looks like the moderate or strong Nina many were forecasting is not going to happen. Have to think it doesn't hurt our chances for wintry weather. 

 

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Nope! I think finally having a weak neutral state will only help us. We need a different pattern driver.

It can't get any worse than what we've had the past couple of years :P  

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On 9/12/2024 at 6:15 PM, Met1985 said:

Nope! I think finally having a weak neutral state will only help us. We need a different pattern driver.

Nino, Nina, neutral, weak, strong, whatever: I don't think it makes any difference anymore.  We were a marginal snow environment.  Now we are beyond marginal. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
38 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Get your furnaces tuned up this week 

 

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If these folks will even have heat available. I’m thinking about those affected by Helene, especially in W NC. I’m sure they would rather not have the cold anytime soon.

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28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

If these folks will even have heat available. I’m thinking about those affected by Helene, especially in W NC. I’m sure they would rather not have the cold anytime soon.

You know I wanted to post something about late next week but conscience got the best of me.  Hard to root for cold weather right now or talk about leaves turning.  

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Its coming no matter what guys.  We can't stop it.  And just because there is misfortune elsewhere, that doesn't mean our lives stop.  We can enjoy it.  We SHOULD enjoy it.  But we can also continue to provide aid and support for others.  Both can happen at the same time.

Survivors guilt is creeping in a bit here because it hits so close to home.  If Helene never happened but Milton wrecks Florida tomorrow, I can promise you we would still be right here rooting for snow.  It's ok to seek normalcy, even when others close by are affected.

Let me be the first to say it....I am GLAD this summer is over.  I have been to so many scorching hot jobsites this year I'm DONE!  Happy to see the first hints of a cooler trend coming.

All of that said, I will find myself right back in Florida next week handling storm recovery efforts.  :cry:  These people are truly suffering!

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32 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Thank you. My family and I are good but I know a lot of people aren't.  It's devastating up here....

After just spending the weekend in Spruce Pine and Burnsville, I can't even imagine what you are going through Met in a much more remote area.  The search and rescue there must be overwhelming.  Are you getting aid sent in?  Some of the more frequented areas are declining aid and asking it to be sent to a central dispatch location because they can't manage the volume.  So I hope your areas are seeing similar support.  If not, please ask for help!

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5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

After just spending the weekend in Spruce Pine and Burnsville, I can't even imagine what you are going through Met in a much more remote area.  The search and rescue there must be overwhelming.  Are you getting aid sent in?  Some of the more frequented areas are declining aid and asking it to be sent to a central dispatch location because they can't manage the volume.  So I hope your areas are seeing similar support.  If not, please ask for help!

Thank you. We are doing well. We have a ton of support and some organizations are just rotating through to help out. The whole community is really just pitching in and doing what needs to be done. 

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