GaWx Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 The very inaccurate extended models fwiw suggest stupid cold vs late March normals to occur in the SE after midmonth similar to El Niños of 1881, 1885, 1906, 1914, 1915, 1926, 1940, 1983. This would be 2-3 weeks after the upcoming strongest of season strat 10 mb wind reversal. The SE is way overdue for Nino late Mar stupidity. Look how often it occurred through 1940. As the great philosopher once said, winter ain’t over til it’s over. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 It would not surprise me if we get a March snow. February was so bad something might happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Model consensus is suggesting a short chilly period in one week and a potentially colder period in about two weeks (near/just after St. Patrick’s Day). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 13 hours ago, GaWx said: Model consensus is suggesting a short chilly period in one week and a potentially colder period in about two weeks (near/just after St. Patrick’s Day). At which point a lot of this forum will average 65+ degrees 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 On 2/26/2024 at 1:40 PM, ncjoaquin said: Warm it up! Hopefully, we keep the rain train. It's been a little dry lately. I'm blaming you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 42 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: I'm blaming you lol Ha! Ha! I'll take responsibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 18 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Ha! Ha! I'll take responsibility. Looks like even long term it's gonna be a wet month. On a serious note, wouldn't be surprised if we do end up with a hot and dry summer if the La nina starts to form, so can't complain too much besides not being able to golf on my days off lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 On 3/4/2024 at 9:30 AM, GaWx said: Model consensus is suggesting a short chilly period in one week and a potentially colder period in about two weeks (near/just after St. Patrick’s Day). No change from the above. Ups and downs with a short chill early next week and a potentially longer and colder period starting around St. Patrick’s Day. The St. Patrick’s cold could be intense for mid to late March. Hard freezes in much of the SE wouldn’t be a shock as we will have a very weak SPV through the rest of the month favoring -NAO/-AO and mid to late March El Niños of 1881, 1885, 1906, 1914, 1915, 1926, 1940, and 1983 had hard freezes. This obviously could be overdone but the 12Z Euro (AI) has 850s WAY BN even based on 1981-2010 climo with below 0C well down into FL! Will stupidity become a reality? We could very well see the coldest (in the absolutes, not just in the anomalies) since Jan 21st-22nd! Stay tuned ITT for further updates as they become available. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Basically all that means is 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s with a dry NW flow. Yay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I thought this thread and others similar to it are supposed to be for forecast discussion of any aspect of wx that any poster wants to post about rather than being restricted to just discussion of wx a particular member reading the posts wants. Am I mistaken? Anyway, whether or not any particular member wants or cares about potentially the coldest period in 2 months near and just after St. Patrick’s Day, I’m going to continue to post about it, regardless, whenever I have the chance and feel like it. Otherwise, why does this thread even exist? I find many aspects of wx interesting. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I think that everyone is just past the point of rooting for snow — particularly in spring, when cold is not a positive. Note: end of OP GFS features another west coast trough mid-late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 March is going to end up above average like almost every month does. There will be a couple brief cool spells with frost but it will be back in the 70s quickly. Next week will be mostly 60s and 70s after the brief cool shot Sunday and Monday. St Patrick's day could be 2 or 3 days and a bit cooler than this one but nothing too anomalous and certainly not a snowy look. Just your typical NW flow. We can talk about it all we want but there's really nothing remarkable about the next 2 or 3 weeks (or since January 2022) except some slight flooding risk. If the trough digs enough around St Patty's there could be some minor NW flow snow about 3K. The rest is Bradford pears, daffodils, and pollen season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Here is a novel idea….if you don’t want to read/hear about, stay off the board. Good grief, the guy is just discussing what he sees, and what the models might be showing. This whole nonsense of ‘rooting for cold weather’ is utterly ridiculous. Guess what, the weather is going to do what it’s going to do, regardless of what we ‘root’ for. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 December was the 10th warmest in history for RDU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 https://www.cbs17.com/weather/nc-history-no-snow-this-winter-in-the-triangle-for-the-first-time/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&fbclid=IwAR0ju4RpMSU_R41OMfHTVUreLb4QA5IWOql3Bl4fKiS4UC-5CLWzxr5JrcA_aem_AZnd1ega6WbAOzKNxPuqYA5eqYB7UHwaM7xjCU2XIXJiVAcMSKk1U9cBR70C1QPmA3c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: https://www.cbs17.com/weather/nc-history-no-snow-this-winter-in-the-triangle-for-the-first-time/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&fbclid=IwAR0ju4RpMSU_R41OMfHTVUreLb4QA5IWOql3Bl4fKiS4UC-5CLWzxr5JrcA_aem_AZnd1ega6WbAOzKNxPuqYA5eqYB7UHwaM7xjCU2XIXJiVAcMSKk1U9cBR70C1QPmA3c Per this, this was the first year IN HISTORY without a trace of snow at RDU. Also the 5th warmest winter in history 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Yesterday’s was the coldest Euro Weeklies map for 3/18-25 since the first one issued. See image below. That doesn’t equate to wintry precip. even if it were to verify. It means a cool period overall would be on the way, including frost and freeze potential. In the meantime a short cool period is on the way prior to then early next week. In addition, the last week of this month has been looking cool on each run though it wouldn’t be as cool per how it is on the run. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 It’s actually incredible we’ve gotten this dumb cooldown every spring 5 years running. I remember when we used to commit to spring and do it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Plants are really putting out now and will do so even more next week. Some things are going to get killed for sure. Hopefully peaches and apples aren't too far along in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Plants are really putting out now and will do so even more next week. Some things are going to get killed for sure. Hopefully peaches and apples aren't too far along in the upstate. Yeah I've got trees in my area that are budding for green new growth. I feel bad for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 The new Euro model shows a really chilly late March. Lots of 20s in WNC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 41 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I've got trees in my area that are budding for green new growth. I feel bad for them. Dogwoods, maples, and lot of other are blooming here. It's amazing how the grass has went from brown to green and growing in days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Dogwoods, maples, and lot of other are blooming here. It's amazing how the grass has went from brown to green and growing in days. My weeds sure are happy! Haven't really had any significant drought here since moving here in 2018. I like the rainy periods this time of year. If nothing else, it keeps the house comfortable without having to run the AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Still somewhat skeptical we get another hard freeze this year Raleigh eastward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Still somewhat skeptical we get another hard freeze this year Raleigh eastward Weather has been awesome this spring. I don’t mind the wet especially knowing we’ll be begging for it in a couple months, nothing has been prolonged rains either. Honestly it feels like a normal spring, unlike these delayed “winters” of the last couple years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 RDU never gets below 40 on the 6z GFS through 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: RDU never gets below 40 on the 6z GFS through 384 The same GFS that showed it snowing on the 20th on the 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 17 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: RDU never gets below 40 on the 6z GFS through 384 Same with the 18Z GFS it appears. The Euro suites have generally been colder. We’ll see which comes closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 It looks quite dry over the next two weeks. 12z Canadian actually doesn’t have any rain for central NC through the entire run. Quite the change for the mid range compared to last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: It looks quite dry over the next two weeks. 12z Canadian actually doesn’t have any rain for central NC through the entire run. Quite the change for the mid range compared to last few days Let Nina begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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