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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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16th/17th definitely a consistent threat both on OP and Ensemble runs at this point, but it's gonna be a tricky one to track given the uncertainty that these two anomalously strong storms between now and then are going to cause in the models. Particularly the 2nd one this weekend, as it appears likely to phase with the TPV lobe and exactly where that big low sets up ahead of our target wave will have big impacts. Ideally, we need it to trend east as close to the 50/50 region as we can get it, as opposed to further west where the 12z GFS showed it.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro drops the TPV close to home after which will likely suppress things until it moves away and we warm up for another rainstorm. 

sfct-imp.us_ma.png

Haha. You and I have seen this play out too many times to count. It's just another winter of cold and dry, followed by intense rain and warm. It's a dud.

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Yep that's the norm the past 5 years especially.. May have to root for a super clipper with the upcoming pattern. The trough orientation doesn't look ideal for a miller A, then the MJO goes into its warm phases later this month. This will probably be a pretty quick shot of cold air. Then we are already talking about a "relaxation of the pattern"

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus (1).png

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Essentially cold chasing moisture for the 16th is what I'm seeing model wise once the system gets cranking. "That ain't gonna work Jim"

***Actually it's cold not even chasing anymore. More like the cold decided to take a breather along the mountains and watch the light showers move out.

My one shot of hopefulness came with the storm this past weekend which didn't materialize outside of the mountains and foothills ice wise. I really don't see anything worth getting excited over for the next few weeks at all minus some below temps. 

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46 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would love to start seeing some promising runs soon... I know it's early but if we don't cash in with this pattern coming up then the clock will be ticking.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

There is no clock anymore. Only a dark, snow less void.

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