StantonParkHoya Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: I was just thinking about the great lakes ice this morning. Am I wrong in thinking that 15-20 years ago it was normal for most of the lakes to be completely covered in ice? I feel like they used to talk about lake effect snow "until the lakes froze." But haven't heard of talk like that in a while. But maybe I'm remembering incorrectly.? They average 55% ice coverage. In 2014, they achieved 94% coverage and it was a big story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Not SE specific but this illustrates how bad February was for the east coast https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1760769133505863805?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Brian McNoldy - Unbelievable: the North Atlantic sea... | Facebook 4.5 Standard Deviations above normal for water temps in the North Atlantic. That is essentially unprecedented and certainly a factor in our SER. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 On 2/16/2024 at 10:55 PM, Upstate Tiger said: Cool story. Thanks for sharing. That’s the thing about big snowstorms, especially in the south, is we can connect them to some special people and times in our lives. The thing that I didn't mention is that the bust was due to an unanticipated fetch set up off of the Atlantic resulting in a moisture river flowing inland that dumped the aforementioned snow on the Scranton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Looks like we are about to transition into a soggy period. It's amazing how quickly it can switch to dry/wet. There have been a few fires burning again with it being dry for most of February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US. If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming. I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong. I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: Looks like we are about to transition into a soggy period. It's amazing how quickly it can switch to dry/wet. There have been a few fires burning again with it being dry for most of February. Didn’t it just rain like yesterday? I’m pretty sure it was pouring at my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 29 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US. If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming. I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong. I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close. Pretty much in line with what everyone else was saying: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty much in line with what everyone else was saying: Who can we trust??? (Bat signal seen in the skies over central NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 28 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Who can we trust??? (Bat signal seen in the skies over central NC) Trust the ops inside a week because I can assure you none them were consistently showing snow or cold in that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US. If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming. I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong. I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close. I find the CPC is usually pretty good on their 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. Getting accurate forecasts beyond 14 days out is just extremely hard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 A pretty strong CAD for the main CAD areas has been shown on some runs of the GFS, including the strongest version yet on the 18Z resulting in a very cold rain with only low to middle 30s during the day Fri 3/1. A few spots even have ZR or IP. The earlier 0Z GFS was similar though not quite as cold. However, the Euro and CMC as well as the 12Z and 6Z GFS don’t have anything like that for Fri. So, the 18Z GFS is very likely too cold with it being such an outlier and thus the worst scenario would probably be just a 40s cold rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The newest GFS (0Z) is similar to the 18Z. The 0Z GEFS has 11 of 30 with some ZR or IP in a portion of the main CAD areas on March 1 compared with 8 on the 18Z, 2 on the 12Z, and 4 on the 6Z. The 0Z Euro again says mainly nada with coldest upper 30s with the rain for the most part, similar to 12Z. Also, 0Z ICON/UKMET/CMC have no wintry. So, the GFS remains on its own. If you bet on it, you’re taking a big risk. And even so, it is only marginal in a portion of the main CAD areas. But it for outside the mtns is the only wintry game in town even if only barely. So, I think it is worthy of mention. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 17 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US. If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming. I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong. I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close. I'm down with OPP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6Z GFS likes March 8 for some snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: 6Z GFS likes March 8 for some snow! A full week before this, the 6Z and now the 12Z GFS is continuing for the 4th run in a row of at least the low threat for a wintry mix in a portion of the main CAD areas on Friday, Mar 1. Also, the 12Z ICON has cooled off and now has more of a wet wedge than prior runs with it as cold as upper 30s with rain in N GA on Fri. In addition, the 12Z CMC now has a cold rain on Fri (low 40s N GA) after previously having no precip and low 50s there. This is getting a bit more interesting with each run as it is getting more model support as we get closer (within 5 days). Could Mar 1 end up with the first wintry precip of the winter in especially some of the main CAD areas? That potential is looking to me to be somewhat less unlikely than when I first posted about it last evening. Edit: The vast majority of 12Z GEFS members (by far the most yet) have at least a little wintry mix in a portion of the CAD areas on Mar 1 fwiw. Edit #2: 12Z Euro still has for Mar 1 in the CAD areas the coldest with rain being upper 30s for the most part. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Since long term models are so accurate , I looked at them closely: -Euro Weeklies warmest yet through 3/24 -Recent CFS ensemble runs about coldest yet for 3/10-17 along with AN precip. -So, for 3/10-17, the Euro Weeklies have gone from cold a few days ago to NN now. That compares to recent CFS ens being BN to MBN. -So, huge disagreement mid March. Whereas I’d love for the CFS to be right, I’m for now going for the Euro to be closer based on how this winter has gone. But I’m going to watch the forecasted strongest major SSW of the season that’s predicted ~Mar 3 along with the PNA/NAO/AO possibly going +/-/- by 3/10 to hopefully cause the Weeklies to bust too warm in mid March. -Whereas Mar 3-9 is a high confidence period to average mild in the SE, Mar 10-17 is an extra low confidence period for whatever. And don’t forget that Mar 1 could have a bit of a wintry surprise for some of the CAD areas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 This is soo exciting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Since long term models are so accurate , I looked at them closely: -Euro Weeklies warmest yet through 3/24 -Recent CFS ensemble runs about coldest yet for 3/10-17 along with AN precip. -So, for 3/10-17, the Euro Weeklies have gone from cold a few days ago to NN now. That compares to recent CFS ens being BN to MBN. -So, huge disagreement mid March. Whereas I’d love for the CFS to be right, I’m for now going for the Euro to be closer based on how this winter has gone. But I’m going to watch the forecasted strongest major SSW of the season that’s predicted ~Mar 3 along with the PNA/NAO/AO possibly going +/-/- by 3/10 to hopefully cause the Weeklies to bust too warm in mid March. -Whereas Mar 3-9 is a high confidence period to average mild in the SE, Mar 10-17 is an extra low confidence period for whatever. And don’t forget that Mar 1 could have a bit of a wintry surprise for some of the CAD areas. I have zero faith in the weeklies. I'm not sure what to believe other than we just had a minor SSW and we are going to have a strong one in a couple days. This pattern will break just in time for Spring to be delayed. My opinion this winter we saw more of a NINA pattern than anything else. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 We finally reached the coldest normal mean of any day in the Arctic, Feb 25th. Compare that to mid Jan for much of the SE. For about the next two weeks, the daily mean normals only very slow warm and are still only near Jan normals. Only afterward (after Mar 10) the warming of normals accelerates. There have been many winters when the coldest Arctic day was in Mar, especially recently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Looks like the GFS backed way off any CAD related mixed precip. Definitely the winter theme. Probably a decent weekend in the 60s for most! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Looks like the GFS backed way off any CAD related mixed precip. Definitely the winter theme. Probably a decent weekend in the 60s for most! Warm it up! Hopefully, we keep the rain train. It's been a little dry lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 7 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Warm it up! Hopefully, we keep the rain train. It's been a little dry lately. February is likely going to end up below average with rain compared to a very wet January. Water levels are at mid summer levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 47 minutes ago, wncsnow said: February is likely going to end up below average with rain compared to a very wet January. Water levels are at mid summer levels February has sucked all the way around. Hopefully, March is wet. That, at least, looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I have no more words for the disaster of a winter this was. Today was a 10/10 weather wise though. Hopefully we keep a mild spring well into May and turkey hunting and fishing is pleasant. I plan to bring my daughter along to the turkey blind for the first time this year so I hope we get some weekend days just like today! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I have no more words for the disaster of a winter this was. Today was a 10/10 weather wise though. Hopefully we keep a mild spring well into May and turkey hunting and fishing is pleasant. I plan to bring my daughter along to the turkey blind for the first time this year so I hope we get some weekend days just like today! If we can just get to April 15, we’ve beaten it. 10 degree cold anomalies are then just 65 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 20 hours ago, ncjoaquin said: February has sucked all the way around. Hopefully, March is wet. That, at least, looks possible. Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 22 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol Ha! Ha! I have a well. It always makes me nervous when it gets dry. But, otherwise, I agree with you,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol Personally, I find that dry too easily turns to drought, then to seriously bad drought and temps over a 100 with a water bill to match. Let it rain baby, let it rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 hours ago, jpbart said: Personally, I find that dry too easily turns to drought, then to seriously bad drought and temps over a 100 with a water bill to match. Let it rain baby, let it rain. Agreed. A dry spring is a guaranteed drought a few months later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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