Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 If it makes you feel any better the NE is having a rough winter also. A lot of them just went from a winter storm 8-12 inches to literally nothing in 24 hours.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 0Z ICON looks like a no for wintry in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, Met1985 said: If it makes you feel any better the NE is having a rough winter also. A lot of them just went from a winter storm 8-12 inches to literally nothing in 24 hours.... Some of the wildest last minute jumps you’ll ever see from models. I almost feel bad for them… almost… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0Z GFS has more IA and vicinity snow and a possibly related stronger push of cold. Let’s see whether this pushes moisture/storminess away from the SE or else it teams up with moisture and gets more interesting. Edit: the former though it gets close. We need the low/moisture to lag more/come in later to mix with the cold instead of riding along the cold front, which usually doesn’t work out (cold chasing moisture). Edit: This GFS is coldest in SE for 12Z on 2/18 in at least a week per TT old runs. *Corrected 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0Z CMC: no SE winter storm. Run not as cold as prior run as of 12Z on 2/17. That carries over later to not as cold NW of the offshore SE low and thus not as cold a rain/not as close a call. (actually 12Z had a little bit of wintry precip). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0Z GEFS: 12Z 2/17 Midwest/Plains and 12Z 2/18 SE 2m temps are both the coldest in at least a week’s worth of runs (per TT site…easy to compare). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 UK gave most of Virginia a decent snow this run More moisture in NC but rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0Z Euro: no SE wintry precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Maybe I'm crazy but I still think those in NE NC especially and VA could see an inch or two out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Definitely more organization in the central and western gulf on the Canadian and GFS 12z runs. Looks like the northern energy was weaker and allowed for more development of the southern energy, might just be noise at this point but something to watch over the next few days. ICON keeps a stronger northern piece and squashes any development in the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Definitely more organization in the central and western gulf on the Canadian and GFS 12z runs. Looks like the northern energy was weaker and allowed for more development of the southern energy, might just be noise at this point but something to watch over the next few days. It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need! Yeah it is close in that 2/18 timeframe. We shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 hours ago, GaWx said: If the CMC weren’t so cold biased, I’d be more excited about the potential for 2/18-9 wintry deep into the SE. Keep in mind that at 12Z on 2/17, this latest run has single digit temps in the NW 2/3 of MO associated with a 1044 mb high centered to the W. In contrast, the 18Z GFS is much less cold at ~20 with a much weaker high, 1030. The 12Z Euro is way up in the 25-27 range, 20 warmer than the CMC, along with a 1032 high. The NWS forecasts for MO are all in the 20s. So, the CMC is on its own there right now. To have a halfway reasonable shot for wintry in the SE, the colder and stronger the high (like what the CMC has) the better. Although I’m not betting on it due to cold bias, I’m still hoping the CMC somehow has the right idea. With the progged very strong -EPO ridge resulting in an EPO of ~-3 setting in for the next several days, my hope is that the non-CMC models aren’t fully seeing how cold the high will be. But the current lack of mid-US snowcover may still allow it to modify rapidly like the non-CMC models have. OTOH, the models all have new snow progged for much of the Plains and Midwest just in advance of this cold air with the CMC having it all the way down to MO. Perhaps how much/how widespread the snow this week will be crucial and thus something to follow. Compared to yesterday’s outlier cold 12Z CMC with its hard to believe single digits over NW 2/3 of MO for 12Z on 2/17 (cold airmass preceding potential GOM storm) with max SLP NW MO 1041 mb, today’s 0Z and 12Z are much warmer there with the 12Z 10-15 warmer with mainly 13-22 and max SLP only 1033 mb. Related to this later over the E portion of the SE to the coast, the rain isn’t nearly as cold with mainly 40-47 on today’s 12Z run instead of 33-37 of yesterday’s 12Z and the little bit of wintry precip it actually had. Still, the 2/18-19 period is not a done deal for SE wintry from any potential Gulf to offshore SE low although chances are dropping as we get closer. I didn’t see much to get excited about on the 12Z model consensus. We need a colder airmass from the N stream to interact just right with any low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Unless we get a miracle this weekend, February is toast. NOVA and DMV likely to get 2 or 3 more inches though. They are one of the few places on the east coast that aren't incredibly far behind seasonal norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Regarding any potential GOM/offshore SE low, there are still 13 of 30 12Z GEFS with mainly light snow mostly in E Carolinas. But the 12Z EPS and GEPS suggest very little chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18Z GFS is still teasing us with the back edge of the rain changing to snow for brief periods of 2/17-18 though with temps comfortably above 32. 0Z and 12Z runs also had this. So, 3 of last 4 runs with what could be somewhat interesting. But other models are showing pretty much nothing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Further to the above post, the GFS/GEFS seem to be on an island suggesting much of a chance for SE wintry precip mainly on the back edge 2/17-18. The 18Z GEFS has 13 of 30 members with some of that, mainly light/not necessarily sticking. The reason these last two runs have had more seems to be somewhat of a delay in the low moving out in the means vs runs just before these. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 18Z Euro suite is less suppressed than recent runs. If that were a sign of what’s to come in future Euro runs, that would be good because it like the ICON has been too suppressed to do any good for anyone since the 0Z 2/12 run, regardless of the temps. But even so, the 18Z EPS, which is slightly less suppressed and thus has more qpf along the Gulf coast, still has little snow anywhere in the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 0Z GFS, due possibly to less new snow over the MW/N Plains, isn’t as cold as recent runs. Let’s see whether this leads to a less cold rain in the SE. Edit: It seems to have done that showing the importance in the model of new snow-cover. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What are we even looking at? The LR has a big ridge over the eastern 1/2 for Feb into early March. We’re cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What are we even looking at? The LR has a big ridge over the eastern 1/2 for Feb into early March. We’re cooked. My understanding of this forum is that it is for discussion of mid to long range weather patterns in the Southeastern states. Although, recently it seems a lot of people think it is a forum that should only have activity if it is going to snow. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 29 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: My understanding of this forum is that it is for discussion of mid to long range weather patterns in the Southeastern states. Although, recently it seems a lot of people think it is a forum that should only have activity if it is going to snow. To be fair, outside of severe weather / tropical stuff, this particular thread is somewhat dead when it's not winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th: To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment: The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th: To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment: The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed. Yep the advertised change has all but evaporated. Don't worry we'll get in time for weeks of cold rain in April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th: To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment: The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed. When making long range forecasts south of buffalo New York, just lean heavily on snowless and above average, even if models suggest otherwise. Do not predict cold or wintry chances unless they are within 6 days of the event. You’ll be better than 90% of the Mets on twitter and TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: When making long range forecasts south of buffalo New York, just lean heavily on snowless and above average, even if models suggest otherwise. Do not predict cold or wintry chances unless they are within 6 days of the event. You’ll be better than 90% of the Mets on twitter and TV In the last 6 years I think one cold period was accurately modeled at range, last years Christmas cold outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 31 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yep the advertised change has all but evaporated. Don't worry we'll get in time for weeks of cold rain in April. Pretty much guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 42 minutes ago, GaWx said: In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th: To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment: The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed. Yep. West PAC and IO SST'S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It cannot be understated how bad this hurricane season could be with the base state of the Atlantic and La Niña forecast to come back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The cold biased CMC (12Z run) gives a 39 F cold rain to a portion of the FL/GA border early on Feb 19th. In addition, 850s get as low as +1C and 925s as low as 0C with light rain in Brunswick but temps get down only to the low 40s there on the run. If only the low were stronger/precip heavier bringing the colder air aloft to the surface. OTOH, this model is cold biased, regardless. So, it is likely overdone with how cold the rain is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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