Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[eyewall]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight 

I have to admit as pessimistic as I can be, getting blanked 2 years in a row was not what I expected.

[StantonParkHoya]

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

He is generally always pessimistic about winter weather and cold and it has served him well for the mot part. 

That’s an easy default that will prove true 95% of the time

[UnionCountyNCWX]

46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight 

Although (as mentioned already) he leans toward the pessimistic side of things, he called it out almost a couple of weeks ago already, so as pessimistic as he may be, he was confident in this not working well before crunch time, so props for that.

[NorthHillsWx]

Probably won’t matter much but GFS is much more consolidated with the southern stream energy over Texas this run

[NorthHillsWx]

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

Add to that- with the NS low moving out sooner, it actually shows a 1031 HP in a favorable location with CAD signature showing. This isn’t a terrible look at range 

[wncsnow]

Looking at the UK- I think the Euro might have a little snow for eastern areas this run. (tidewater VA especially)

[BooneWX]

Looking under the hood, our ridge out west starts to look better on the GEFS but right as it starts to get established and begins letting the cold air dump east, it’s severed in half by a rapidly developing west coast trough. Just another example in the long list of examples where the pacific keeps the cold in the long range from entering the short range.

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looking at the UK- I think the Euro might have a little snow for eastern areas this run. (tidewater VA especially)

Canadian is very very close on the 20th

[BooneWX]

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Looking under the hood, our ridge out west starts to look better on the GEFS but right as it starts to get established and begins letting the cold air dump east, it’s severed in half by a rapidly developing west coast trough. Just another example in the long list of examples where the pacific keeps the cold from the long range from entering the short range.

And the impressive blocking is not going to happen now. The pattern is fast and controlled by the Pacific 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

And the impressive blocking is not going to happen now. The pattern is fast and controlled by the Pacific 

Yep. Only chance is for something with perfect timing. I like the Canadians evolution with the lobe of energy left behind and a separate cleaner wave trailing a little behind what the GFS shows. That’s the only way we win bc the “cold” will be transient and a delayed system will have more chance to interact with that very brief window. Two things to watch for the 19-20th time period:

1) can the southern stream energy consolidate quicker and possibly become more amped/further north

2) can the souther stream energy hold back after the initial wave moves through on roughly the 18th. We need that NS low to pass on by for a transient HP to build into NE or it rains. Good news from both runs of GFS and Canadian shows a stronger hp with colder/drier air in our source region. I actually don’t hate the placement of the high on either. 
 

If we notice a sharper trough trailing back in Texas in subsequent runs, I think the odds of something interesting to track will increase, assuming the timing noted above stays the same. This is a very very low chance of success but there are players we need on the field (cold (just enough), southern stream energy) so we cannot completely discredit it at this time

I am trying to stay positive people, the last few days have really been frustrating but I do enjoy tracking weather and to many on this forums credit, there is at least something to track in the timeframe we have been watching 

[BooneWX]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And the impressive blocking is not going to happen now. The pattern is fast and controlled by the Pacific 

Check out the anomaly’s south of the Aleutian Islands….sort of explains why we consistently pop a ridge in that region and can never sustain it closer to the Lower 48.

[wncsnow]

Euro is trying but the wave is too weak and progressive 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Looking at the UK- I think the Euro might have a little snow for eastern areas this run. (tidewater VA especially)

Yep 

[wncsnow]

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is trying but the wave is too weak and progressive 

Imo the euro develops the wrong wave. I like the trailing energy I spoke about above. Pretty big differences in timing and wave progression but good to see some coldish air involved again

[GaWx]

 The 2/13-20 0Z 2/12 GEFS predicted AO rose quite a bit again to -1.2 (see image below) vs -2.2 on 2/10, -2.7 on 2/9, -3.2 on 2/8, -3.0 on 2/7, and -3.5 on 2/6. Also, the NAO is significantly higher than yesterday with it hitting +0.7  In addition, the soon to peak PNA will be dropping to negative in ~a week. So, terrible trends again for cold lovers on the GEFS for late month:

 AO from just 4 days ago (2/8 run) : -3.2 for 2/13-20 and headed for a major bust

AO today (2/12 run): -1.2 for 2/13-20

[BooneWX]

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before. 

[dsaur]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 2/13-20 0Z 2/12 GEFS predicted AO rose quite a bit again to -1.2 (see image below) vs -2.2 on 2/10, -2.7 on 2/9, -3.2 on 2/8, -3.0 on 2/7, and -3.5 on 2/6. Also, the NAO is significantly higher than yesterday with it hitting +0.7  In addition, the soon to peak PNA will be dropping to negative in ~a week. So, terrible trends again for cold lovers on the GEFS for late month:

 AO from just 4 days ago (2/8 run) : -3.2 for 2/13-20 and headed for a major bust

AO today (2/12 run): -1.2 for 2/13-20

Sounds like some bank of Crays needs more buoy data. Look out side when the time comes is still be best predictor, lol.  Climo says it's a good time, so let's wait and see.  Of course climo is in the process of adjusting too...so look outside to be sure

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before. 

It’s been full blown meltdown mode on the NE page. I can’t even imagine losing a foot + inside 24 hours and come away with nothing. This page wouldn’t react well 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before. 

Also- to see how poorly this thing was modeled, look at rainfall forecasts for here today. What looked locked in as an all-day washout has resulted in virtually no rain at all thus far. This thing went WAY south 

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

18Z GEFS (outside of mtns): much more wintry than 12Z

-back up to 4 members with wintry precip in N FL (2 near Jacksonville)

-mean is the highest it has been in N 1/2 of GA and much of SC in awhile; 50% have snow that includes outside of NC 

-NC: 3 biggies/2 moderate; mean is 0.5-1.5” most of state; 75% have snow

-ATL: 1 with 3”+ that also includes moderate to heavy much of SC/NC with light to far NE FL

 Compared to the improved 18Z GEFS, the 12Z GEFS has worsened substantially:

-much of NC only 0.1 to 0.6” and most only 0.1-0.2” vs 0.5-1.5”

-NC: only 2 moderate to big dogs vs 5

-NC: but still 70% have snow vs 75% although most light (a good number in E NC)

-Other states: 30% vs 50%

-ATL: only 4 with SN, all very light (~0.1”)

-N FL: only 1 (3%) and that one just barely

[StantonParkHoya]

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1757134777549779064?s=46&t=jAFaB6obZkJTfvsymMHE1g

[wxdawg10]

put a fork in it, winter is over. Start planning those walks to the park

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

put a fork in it, winter is over. Start planning those walks to the park

Actually, I do the opposite. My walks in the park are typically more frequent during winter than in any other season. But then again, I’m down in Savannah, where unenjoyable heat and humidity dominate much of the year and thus I enjoy walking in chilly conditions. Regardless, I can usually get in a good number of enjoyable walks well into April. The treadmill usually takes over starting in May.

[Met1985]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, I do the opposite. My walks in the park are typically more frequent during winter than in any other season. But then again, I’m down in Savannah, where unenjoyable heat and humidity dominate much of the year and thus I enjoy walking in chilly conditions. Regardless, I can usually get in a good number of enjoyable walks well into April. The treadmill usually takes over starting in May.

Yes we visited Charleston a few weeks ago and we had lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and it was perfect for walking around the city.  We are going to get down to Savanah soon. You'll have to tell me all the good places to eat. I've heard Forsyth park is amazing. 

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS trying to keep hope alive for the PD Storm. Very unlikely but just a FYI.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

[PackGrad05]

The EPS and GEFS are showing snow for portions of central NC with the PD storm.  EURO OP also shows it.  

GFS OP is a near miss.  Interestingly, the GFS OP looks better in the longer range than it has with another 2-3 opportunities.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Canadian is very very close on the 20th

 If the CMC weren’t so cold biased, I’d be more excited about the potential for 2/18-9 wintry deep into the SE. Keep in mind that at 12Z on 2/17, this latest run has single digit temps in the NW 2/3 of MO associated with a 1044 mb high centered to the W. In contrast, the 18Z GFS is much less cold at  ~20 with a much weaker high, 1030. The 12Z Euro is way up in the 25-27 range, 20 warmer than the CMC, along with a 1032 high. The NWS forecasts for MO are all in the 20s. So, the CMC is on its own there right now.

 To have a halfway reasonable shot for wintry in the SE, the colder and stronger the high (like what the CMC has) the better. Although I’m not betting on it due to cold bias, I’m still hoping the CMC somehow has the right idea. With the progged very strong -EPO ridge resulting in an EPO of ~-3 setting in for the next several days, my hope is that the non-CMC models aren’t fully seeing how cold the high will be. But the current lack of mid-US snowcover may still allow it to modify rapidly like the non-CMC models have. OTOH, the models all have new snow progged for much of the Plains and Midwest just in advance of this cold air with the CMC having it all the way down to MO. Perhaps how much/how widespread the snow this week will be crucial and thus something to follow.