GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The 12Z CMC (I know isn’t credible that far out but it can show what’s reasonably possible) does much more with the 2nd shortwave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The UK looks different than the GFS. It has a stronger cold push around Friday night and some moisture gathering in Arkansas around Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The 12Z CMC (I know isn’t credible that far out but it can show what’s reasonably possible) does much more with the 2nd shortwave.It’s definitely worth noting however as you point out. If you trust just the GFS operational exclusively at this point, you’re failing to see the bigger picture regardless of outcome.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK looks different than the GFS. It has a stronger cold push around Friday night and some moisture gathering in Arkansas around Saturday. Indeed, the 12Z UK 144 is drastically different from the prior run as it has a near textbook split flow implying wintry potential after 144. This shows how much uncertainty about next weekend/early next week remains. The split flow seems to be coming back on model consensus thanks to the N stream/Canadian high regaining influence in advance of the first shortwave after having weakened so much. And there may be two different shortwaves to deal with during 2/17-20 as the 12Z GFS and especially CMC illustrate. The 3+ sigma -EPO being forecasted is a pretty big deal and would be the strongest of this winter. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Similar changes 12Z Arpege, JMA, and now Euro with the cold high getting in front thanks to the N stream regaining influence/back to split flow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z EURO has the cold push but system gets suppressedSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro a lot colder than previous run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO has the cold push but system gets suppressed Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk And then that second shortwave produces an offshore low that is at first too warm but then winds up at the end…will have to check when maps out if that produces coastal NC/VA snow. *Update: evidently not but it’s a close call with 850s falling below 0C before the very last little bit of coastal NC rain finished. However, the surface is in the 40s. But more importantly, this is another model hint that there may be two shortwaves to watch for 2/17-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 We can't buy a true Miller A gulf low storm track anymore. As @BooneWX said, we are seeing La Nina tendencies still this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Sigh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Y’all do realize that 98 percent of this forum needs to pull for it to be cold first and foremost. That has been the issue therefore all cold trends are good, if you want snow. Worry about precipitation specifics later. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Out of 16 runs, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/26-3/4 came in by far the warmest yet for that week! 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Out of 16 runs, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/26-3/4 came in by far the warmest yet for that week! With as accurate as the Weeklies have been, now I expect cold and snowy 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If the models’ consensus for a dip to ~-3 EPO later this week were to verify, it would be the lowest so far this winter and thus a pretty big deal. The lowest so far has been -2.3. We’ve had only 11 -EPO days so far this winter vs 32 +EPO days and 27 neutral. (I consider sub -0.5 negative with -0.5 to +0.5 neutral.) Cold sometimes but not always accompanies and/or immediately follows a strong -EPO. Here are the last 10 winters’ lowest EPO days (average lowest -2.7): 2022-3: -3.9 on Dec 16 (just before the big Arctic plunge) 2021-2: -3.3 on Dec 20 2020-1: -1.5 on Feb 1 2019-20: -1.4 on Dec 9 2018-9: -3.0 on Feb 27 (El Nino) 2017-8: -2.2 on Dec 6 2016-7: -3.7 on Jan 3 (winter storm 4 days later) 2015-6: -1.4 on Jan 7 (El Nino) 2014-5: -3.1 on Dec 30 (El Nino) 2013-4: -3.6 on Jan 25 (3 days before snow jam) For other El Niño winters: (avg lowest ~-3) 2009-10: -3.9 on Dec 7 2006-7: -3.8 on Jan 30 (winter storm 2 days later) 2004-5: -3.3 on Jan 7 2002-3: -3.1 on Feb 7 1997-8: -1.5 on Feb 5 1994-5: -3.7 on Feb 12 1991-2: -2.2 on Feb 8 1987-8: -2.9 on Jan 2 (just before big winter storm) 1986-7: -2.5 on Dec 9 1982-3: -2.5 on Dec 10 1979-80: -4.1 on Feb 14 1977-8: -2.9 on Dec 21 1976-7: -2.5 on Jan 8 (week before severe Arctic plunge) 1972-3: -3.9 on Dec 9 1969-70: -3.5 on Feb 27 (Arctic plunges) 1968-9: -3.2 on Dec 20 1965-6: -1.7 on Dec 27 1963-4: -3.1 on Dec 11 (4 days before Arctic plunges) 1958-9: -2.3 on Dec 5 1957-8: -2.5 on Feb 2 1953-4: -2.3 on Jan 16 1951-2: -3.1 on Dec 27 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18Z GFS output has wintry mix from the two waves much of SC and NC coasts on 2/18 to early 2/19 but temps stay above 32 (middle 30s for coldest). Edit: There’s also light sleet 2/18 from south central GA to FL Panhandle. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 36 minutes ago, wncsnow said: With as accurate as the Weeklies have been, now I expect cold and snowy I hope Mexico enjoys that colder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18Z GEFS (outside of mtns): much more wintry than 12Z -back up to 4 members with wintry precip in N FL (2 near Jacksonville) -mean is the highest it has been in N 1/2 of GA and much of SC in awhile; 50% have snow that includes outside of NC -NC: 3 biggies/2 moderate; mean is 0.5-1.5” most of state; 75% have snow -ATL: 1 with 3”+ that also includes moderate to heavy much of SC/NC with light to far NE FL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z GEFS much improved from 12z. It would be so awesome if they start blowing this thing up. It's so so close to doing so...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, GaWx said: Out of 16 runs, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/26-3/4 came in by far the warmest yet for that week! Love it. Let spring into your hearts, people! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Unless the models shift drastically, this threat is about done for. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gosh, now Tennessee is about to pull a rabbit out of the hat again. I swear I've never seen that region get as much snow as they've got the last couple years. Just unreal, the rich get richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Gosh, now Tennessee is about to pull a rabbit out of the hat again. I swear I've never seen that region get as much snow as they've got the last couple years. Just unreal, the rich get richer. It does look like parts TN will get a couple inches out of this. Thanks northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Modeling has gotten worse than ever. Just look at the differences in 48 hours. F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think we need a ruling from the King, who is now deliberating. We’ll know soon. Edit: King says no snow for you, SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 48 minutes ago, GaWx said: I think we need a ruling from the King, who is now deliberating. We’ll know soon. Edit: King says no snow for you, SE. Ya, we need to go to Mexico! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Per 0z GFS, we reach freezing exactly 1 night through the entire run during this backloaded Nino February. Then we are firmly into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 As has been the case time and time again the past 2 winters. We get a small glimmer of hope, only for it to smack us back down. This has been decreasing all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Tennessee must be living right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight He is generally always pessimistic about winter weather and cold and it has served him well for the mot part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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