BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z GFS with still a nice track but no cold air like the Euro.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Well at least this winter is proof that we can still get Miller A's. This is like the 4th one. Of course they've all been warm rain storms...but beggars can't be choosers I guess lol 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Good news is the 18z GEFS doesn't agree with the OP. Solid increase of snow amounts in the Piedmont of NC into VA.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 In fact the 18z GEFS looks like the 12z EURO FWIWSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 44 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Good news is the 18z GEFS doesn't agree with the OP. Solid increase of snow amounts in the Piedmont of NC into VA. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Agreed on 18Z GEFS. I count for NC 4 big dogs and 2 moderate dogs. But for ATL, I count only 2 moderates with no biggies. So, if I were in NC, I’d still be quite interested in the potential. The mean is 1”+ for RDU W. Any talk about NC being out of this is premature imo despite the trends. Nothing shabby about that at all. OTOH, ATL’s mean is only ~0.1”. I counted about 20% of the members having suppressed low tracks. Most of the ones that have SC snow are from these 20% that are suppressed. One of these gives moderate snow from the S Gulf coast states/W FL Panhandle through S & C GA, and SE half of SC. So, with it still at 20% on this, I’m not yet giving up on the suppression option though that chance has dropped a lot since just yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 PD storm aside, I'm just curious how the long-term projections were so off for February? Models are now in the range for the end of Feb and early March....with no cold air in sight. I remember back in late Jan when @wncsnowand I were concerned about the warmth in early Feb and were told "Mid-Feb the pattern will be rocking"...."Just wait until the post-Valentine's period".... "Cold air will return the last 2 weeks of Feb". I agree with others that the high-elevations will undoubtely get snow again but I think we're quickly coming to the point where most of the southeast will have to be banking on the PD storm or expect to get blanked again. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: In fact the 18z GEFS looks like the 12z EURO FWIW Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Eh, the mean is a near perfect track and still, the probabilities aren't great. The overall setup is still rather poor. Still, we might luck into something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 February 18/19 has EPS and GEFS support. and EPS has some "noise" on a couple other events after that... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 No matter the mid range storm, 2/24+ is spring pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just my opinion, but the pattern after next weekend is a total crap shoot. Next weekend is pretty much up in the air as well. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Wake up! 0Z: CMC and GFS much better than the most recent runs! Edit: Cold push from Canadian high ahead of the Gulf low much stronger vs the most recent runs. More like earlier runs. That is important to allow the moisture to overrun preexisting cold instead of cold chasing moisture, which usually doesn’t work well. This is clearly not close to being settled yet. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hopefully the trends today will pause the massive bellyachin' we were hearing this morning. At least there still seems to be a fair amount of hope for us. TW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0Z GFS is the coldest in the SE in 5-6 runs when precip breaks out from the Gulf low, which has slowed back down and is the most suppressed since then. This has snow to portions of the SC/NC coasts. This is clearly not close to being settled yet with such a big shift. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS was very close and definitely a good step as Larry said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The King says “no, sorry” to the SE snow starved. This was a much different run from prior Euros (TPV even visits Lake Superior with sub 495 dm 500 mb heights) and combined with the others at 0Z means early next week is still way up in the air. A week out is still a semi-eternity in model-land, especially in an unusually complex pattern of the N stream (fueled by very strong -EPO/strong -AO/moderate -NAO blocking and steered by moderate +PNA) and the ST/Pacific flow (fueled by last of the strong El Niño with recent strong -SOIs) such as we will have later this week. The MJO is progged by the GEFS/EPS to then be in/near weak phase 8, which tends to be conducive to E US cold. The latest EPO forecasts for late week/weekend are the most notable with -3 to -4 being forecasted! Fasten your seatbelts and get plenty of rest just in case. *Edit: Wake up again as the 6Z GFS is similar to the much improved 0Z GFS! The very strong -EPO (strong ridge near AK/NW Canada is such a wildcard) seems to be a big factor. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The northern stream is starting to dominate the southern energy on modeling. That squashes it even though it's colder. We need a phase for us Western NC folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The ICON shows the stronger northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 36 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The northern stream is starting to dominate the southern energy on modeling. That squashes it even though it's colder. We need a phase for us Western NC folks. Luckily the ridge out west is trending stronger. We need it to go a bit taller but we’re close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 You can see that northern energy on the GFS. Much stronger than a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Luckily the ridge out west is trending stronger. We need it to go a bit taller but we’re close. If it keeps trending taller it could dig enough for a phase or partial phase. I don't think this works with just northern or southern dominate energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This isn't going to work. The northern energy is in northern VA and too far in front of the southern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 You also have another piece of energy in the lake inhibited the cold air from reaching us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This ain’t working out folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 No, as of these runs it certainly is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It isn't far at all. Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12Z GFS: note the subsequent sfc low just off FL at 192. Close call for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It isn't far at all. Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs. Yep, something to watch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z GFS: note the subsequent sfc low just off FL at 192. Close call for the coast. The 540 line is in Scranton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This La Niña pattern in the middle of an El Niño is truly something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The 540 line is in Scranton I see the 540 line during hours 192-201 as far S as the NC/VA border. So, even that’s too far N. But sometimes the 546 line can be the snow line and that line stays just offshore 192-204 while that second shortwave and associated surface low is just off FL with its rain not far from the SE coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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