SnowDawg Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 51 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Op Euro maintains a SE Ridge throughout the 10 day period. Is this another instance of the cold showing up 2 weeks then it never arrives? I wouldn't say it's a delay, the first cold shot arrives right on time it's just transient because the PV lobe is stuck out west instead of slowly sliding up under our NAO block. I think at times, especially with these anomalous pv type cold shots the models can have feedback issues with the Rockies. This was the December 2022 cold blast on the Euro at day 10, stuck in the Rockies. We ended up cold and dry though which is certainly a worry. As always there's more ways for things to wrong than right, especially at the lead times we're talking. We may have an idea but I doubt we've seen yet just how this is going to go on modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 In my area we quite possibly will have the coldest first half of January since 2018 with right at normal. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If this is another cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: If this is another cutter... It is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 What a Shocker. Cutters and warm followed by cold and dry. On repeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This would be hurtful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Dear SE Winter Weather Gods, What have we done to forsaken you?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This would be hurtful Although likely too cold, the even colder 12Z CMC is somewhat similar with very cold air moving into the SE on 1/17, which would likely lead to the coldest of the winter to this point. Similar to last winter’s coldest around Christmas, this appears like it would be during a moderate to strong MC phase of the MJO interestingly enough. The strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo doing its thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Although likely too cold, the even colder 12Z CMC is somewhat similar with very cold air moving into the SE on 1/17, which would likely lead to the coldest of the winter to this point. Similar to last winter’s coldest around Christmas, this appears like it will be during a moderate to strong MC phase of the MJO interestingly enough. The strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo doing its thing. I could care less about super cold. I need snow. Last December was irrelevant. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I think it's clear that at least for a period, cold air supply will not be a big problem. It's gonna come down to storm track. Really need a well timed PNA spike to keep a wave from cutting, but not so strong to suppress the pattern too much and send it out to sea. Snow is never easy in the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Fat lady hasn’t started singing yet. 18z may give us hope. Ensembles still agree on cold press and that is key for us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words. The relentless ridging in the southeast. This year may very well be another in a long stretch of losses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 54 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I could care less about super cold. I need snow. Last December was irrelevant. 1. Even though I replied to your post, I didn’t intend for it to be just for you. Temperatures are an important aspect of winter to monitor on their own, especially during winter. Although I’m not yet expecting super cold, the fact that it’s possible in ~10 days is intriguing. Widespread cold on its own can have at least as much (if not more in some cases) impact as a snowstorm. Plus it could set the table for a followup winter storm in more ways than one though that’s beside the point. 2. Last Dec MJO: I’m pointing out similarities for those who may find it interesting. You don’t care, but others might. There are a lot of members and guests that read these. I love to look at both similarities and differences of various factors when looking back in wx history. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acc fan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Heaviest snow so far in Boone. Ground convered 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. Even though I replied to your post, I didn’t intend for it to be just for you. Temperatures are an important aspect of winter to monitor on their own, especially during winter. Although I’m not yet expecting super cold, the fact that it’s possible in ~10 days is intriguing. Widespread cold on its own can have at least as much (if not more in some cases) impact as a snowstorm. Plus it could set the table for a followup winter storm in more ways than one though that’s beside the point. 2. Last Dec MJO: I’m pointing out similarities for those who may find it interesting. You don’t care, but others might. There are a lot of members and guests that read these. I love to look at both similarities and differences of various factors when looking back in wx history. And last December we had how much snow with the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Gets plenty cold after next week's rainstorm on the GFS...but what about the next system? Another cutter? Edit: Lol. System ends up in the Gulf. But, SER flexes it's muscles and despite a Miller-A track, we still just rain. I'm just about over it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words. La Niña pattern in a Nino 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Looks perfect for peak-snow season in January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Ehhh. Snow is icky anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nobody excited about clipper at hour 300? RDU with a surprise 1-2” lol! I’ve seen it happen before with a low develop however and make it white. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 16th/17th was really close and certainly not a bad look 9 days out. Ensemble actually has a suppressed look for that storm at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I saw about 4-5 members looking interesting but it’s a long shot to pan for most of us. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I saw about 4-5 members looking interesting but it’s a long shot to pan for most of us. You never know. You are correct on the you never know statement. It is like chasing a ever moving target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think what’s burned us as much as not actually getting snow is the complete lack of anything interesting to track during this extended snow drought. I remember tracking last Decembers storm but it was lost a week out and yes, the cold and wind was interesting, but there wasn’t any snow in the picture for a very long lead up. I feel like growing up here there were many many storms we got nothing out of, but were glued to weather channel and wral because the R/S line was in the general area. We haven’t even had any close calls. January 2022’s storm was the only thing since 2018 where a WSW was even a possibility 3 days out. This forum has devolved into LR pattern analysis and pessimism. Now, we’re in a decent pattern but the pacific is yanking the carpet out time and time again. I just don’t know if it can snow here anymore, especially from a coastal storm. La Niña doesn’t work, El Niño doesn’t work, what does? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Getting snow for us is like getting a football team that scores points, we'll need to move north. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’m convinced this physically can’t happen anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: 16th/17th was really close and certainly not a bad look 9 days out. Ensemble actually has a suppressed look for that storm at the moment. Yeah. This period is worth watching. We’ve got cold coming and an active jet stream. I really don’t want to be sitting in the jackpot zone outside 7 days. We all know how that works out. I also think the warmup will be muted and short lived. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’ll take some smaller events and be okay. I’m not counting on the 16th but we can still get something before the pattern relaxes for a bit. We may even get a +PNA for a change in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I have no hope for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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