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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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 The 12Z UK is significantly warmer than the 0Z that I showed last night. So, the overall warmer trend of models vs yesterday continues. The flow is overall now being dominated by the moist subtropical/Pacific flow instead of a true split flow of a nice mix of N cold and ST moist. Suppressed low tracks well into GOM are gone for now.

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z UK is significantly warmer than the 0Z that I showed last night. So, the overall warmer trend of models vs yesterday continues. The flow is overall now being dominated by the moist subtropical/Pacific flow instead of a true split flow of a nice mix of N cold and ST moist.

That figures.  We just cannot get out of the state of LA Nina. 

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18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That would work for several. 

I agree. 
one thing curious about and I’ve not heard anyone talk about is the SOI index. 
it been - for 2 weeks and way - at times . Yesterday it was -46.54 today -39.53. 
Wondering if A- index have a bearing on the winter weather in the East?

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12z EPS continues with the trend of less and less sfc high pressure to the north out ahead of any Gulf low to allow already established cold air to meet up with overrunning moisture (split flow). The number of ENE moving suppressed/S slider GOM members meeting up with the cold continues to drop and instead there are more lows that are scooting out earlier on a more NE trajectory along the cold front as the cold comes in from the NW (cold chasing moisture). As a result, there’s little snow outside of NC. NC still has some big dogs (6 out of 50) and 3 moderate dogs, but ATL (and much of GA/SC) has but one big dog (4”) and then one 2” and one 1” out of 50. 
  So, today’s trend has not been kind at all to winter lovers overall. However, we still have another 1-2 days or so for the last chance to turn things back around.

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It's not a huge hit but I would take it in a heartbeat

snku_acc-imp.us_ma (41).png

Just this morning, you said it was over. I believe someone posted that we were grasping at straws and wish-casting .... I can't believe how gullible some of our posters are. Give me a break....

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 More on how much the progged H5/sfc has changed for the pre-storm setup:

This was EPS from a week ago for 0Z 2/18: clearcut split flow with cold high coming in at the sfc in advance of any GOM storm thanks to WNW flow over MW (H5 flow ND to VA)

IMG_9180.thumb.png.73a438df3bd77cb0dbe9c63c1d3d30e5.png
 

Compare that to today’s 12Z EPS for same time: cold high held back due to more zonal N jet and now cold has to wait in many cases for earlier non-suppressed GOM low to first scoot by along cold front (H5 flow ND to MA)

IMG_9181.thumb.png.81501f9ed716a9c8a29c5e7d8e897631.png
 

Still time to shift back, however, though not much time.

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32 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

No, you are being difficult to read.... constant negativity, and when the models show what you want, you are still acting like a child. You are adding nothing to our thread. 

What exactly are you adding?

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34 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

No, you are being difficult to read.... constant negativity, and when the models show what you want, you are still acting like a child. You are adding nothing to our thread. 

If you have an issue feel free to PM me. You are cluttering up the thread 

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