Met1985 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It was a weenie run That would work for several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Also I'll add that yes again the damn cold is in Europe. They have had a heck of a winter out there. From unusual blizzards to extreme boughts of cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 That was the perfect blend almost. The cold pressed just enough and the storm track was ideal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That was the perfect blend almost. The cold pressed just enough and the storm track was ideal Yeah that's all we need. We don't need bone chilling cold because things will be suppressed too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Is anyone starting an early Spring tornado outlook thread. Assuming the warm ENSO STJ persists, meaning at least a few phased systems, and away from the shelf waters, the GOMEX is warmer than usual, I suspect an active 'Dixie Alley' season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The 12Z UK is significantly warmer than the 0Z that I showed last night. So, the overall warmer trend of models vs yesterday continues. The flow is overall now being dominated by the moist subtropical/Pacific flow instead of a true split flow of a nice mix of N cold and ST moist. Suppressed low tracks well into GOM are gone for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z UK is significantly warmer than the 0Z that I showed last night. So, the overall warmer trend of models vs yesterday continues. The flow is overall now being dominated by the moist subtropical/Pacific flow instead of a true split flow of a nice mix of N cold and ST moist. That figures. We just cannot get out of the state of LA Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, Met1985 said: That would work for several. I agree. one thing curious about and I’ve not heard anyone talk about is the SOI index. it been - for 2 weeks and way - at times . Yesterday it was -46.54 today -39.53. Wondering if A- index have a bearing on the winter weather in the East? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 40 minutes ago, Tullioz said: Looks like a lot more coming after that. Euro just needs another run to find the rain. 0z should do that. Rest of the models trended much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Got a feeling you’re right but we still have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z EPS continues with the trend of less and less sfc high pressure to the north out ahead of any Gulf low to allow already established cold air to meet up with overrunning moisture (split flow). The number of ENE moving suppressed/S slider GOM members meeting up with the cold continues to drop and instead there are more lows that are scooting out earlier on a more NE trajectory along the cold front as the cold comes in from the NW (cold chasing moisture). As a result, there’s little snow outside of NC. NC still has some big dogs (6 out of 50) and 3 moderate dogs, but ATL (and much of GA/SC) has but one big dog (4”) and then one 2” and one 1” out of 50. So, today’s trend has not been kind at all to winter lovers overall. However, we still have another 1-2 days or so for the last chance to turn things back around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Let the Euro finish the run... here's the total Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z EURO Control. Similar to the OPSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Let the Euro finish the run... here's the total Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk That's 10-1 this won't be 10-1 if it's snow at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That's 10-1 this won't be 10-1 if it's snow at all Why are some on this site so positive? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Let the Euro finish the run... here's the total Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk why doesn't a run like this ever pan out for us, it shows then it taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 That's 10-1 this won't be 10-1 if it's snow at allI don't care about the ratio dude. The fact of the post was accumulating snow. LolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 That's 10-1 this won't be 10-1 if it's snow at allAlso the storm is way out there. Nobody knows what the ratios will be..Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, BornAgain13 said: I don't care about the ratio dude. The fact of the post was accumulating snow. Lol Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I'm just being realistic. Temps as progged are 32-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I'm just being realistic. Temps as progged are 32-36 That's realistic around these parts. Very rarely is it 28 degrees and snowing. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just thought I would mention that we could be back in La Nina next winter so we better cash in on one of these long shots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: It's not a huge hit but I would take it in a heartbeat Just this morning, you said it was over. I believe someone posted that we were grasping at straws and wish-casting .... I can't believe how gullible some of our posters are. Give me a break.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm just being realistic. Temps as progged are 32-36 No, you are being difficult to read.... constant negativity, and when the models show what you want, you are still acting like a child. You are adding nothing to our thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Hey we have something to look at. I am pleasantly surprised and happy for that . If it works out great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 May happy hour be happy for once. Hard to stomach the big three indicies being favorable, including a 3 std dev negative AO resulting in the same old la Nina pattern. But I prefer to focus on the fact that we have a storm to track that isn't dead yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 More on how much the progged H5/sfc has changed for the pre-storm setup: This was EPS from a week ago for 0Z 2/18: clearcut split flow with cold high coming in at the sfc in advance of any GOM storm thanks to WNW flow over MW (H5 flow ND to VA) Compare that to today’s 12Z EPS for same time: cold high held back due to more zonal N jet and now cold has to wait in many cases for earlier non-suppressed GOM low to first scoot by along cold front (H5 flow ND to MA) Still time to shift back, however, though not much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 32 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: No, you are being difficult to read.... constant negativity, and when the models show what you want, you are still acting like a child. You are adding nothing to our thread. What exactly are you adding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 34 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: No, you are being difficult to read.... constant negativity, and when the models show what you want, you are still acting like a child. You are adding nothing to our thread. If you have an issue feel free to PM me. You are cluttering up the thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 In actual analysis, the 18Z GFS is too warm with less of a cold push than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The low in the lakes has been a persistent issue on the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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