NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 You gotta love seeing classic Miller A gulf lows riding the coast in February with plenty of moisture and rain… in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 what happened to the cold air that was supposed to be around the 18th and on timeframe. I kept hearing the second half of February was going to rock, my goodness we can't get a break, this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I've said it all winter, this is the most La Niña looking El Niño I've ever seen. It's just an endless onslaught of low pressures rolling through southern Canada into the NE, meaning we can never build any decent HP to work with. Overactive northern stream, classic hallmark of a La Niña. It's like after the 3 year Niña some features are lagging to adjust. It took 48 hours to go from this... to this... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Yeah unfortunately overnight guidance and this mornings guidance has not trended in the right direction. It's so so close... but just not quite cold enough Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is. You see the analog years and we just keep setting new precedents for failure. A part of climate change that may lock us out of consistent winter weather in the future may be the supercharged northern stream. Going back to La Niña this year is going to sting when winter forecasts come out this season and pile it up with the previous closing in on a decade winters of failure and a trend is emerging 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 What a disaster of overnight runs. At this point it might not get truly cold for the rest of the month. Only thing you can bet on is lots of rain. Good for fishing at least. The NAO and Pacific have both flipped in a few days to what we don't want. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is. Exactly, it will become much more difficult for it to snow here. Virginia is what NC used to be like, chances wise. NC is like what SC used to be like. Keep shifting things a state down for each state. Warmer and warmer here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Exactly, it will become much more difficult for it to snow here. Virginia is what NC used to be like, chances wise. NC is like what SC used to be like. Keep shifting things a state down for each state. Warmer and warmer here. Maybe. maybe not. you going to tell me in another generation upstate NY will be like Va? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. I feel ya on this. We were screwed in the 90s for sure. One time we had a winter storm warning and got nothing. Last night was a kick to the stomach but we will keep posting and hoping until early March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knowledgeispwr Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. I think this is key. When we point to winter events from 30+ years ago as an example that such a storm could occur in our region, we're sidestepping the fact that we don't live in the climate from way back then anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. And to take it a step further bc the bar for being “measurable” is so small, if you add up RDUs cumulative TOTAL snow over the last 6 years (assuming this year is 0.00”) then the total amount from that entire time period is right around our yearly average. So even though we did have measurable snow in 4 of those 6 years, the amounts were tiny 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 You can always tell when things look bad. No GaWx or Met1985 posts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: You can always tell when things look bad. No GaWx or Met1985 posts NGL, I am actually interested in finding out how many El Nino's in history compare to how bad this one has been overall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: NGL, I am actually interested in finding out how many El Nino's in history compare to how bad this one has been overall lol. 1998 was similar in some ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1998 was similar in some waysEven that year it snowed like 4 inches one day at 34 degrees LOL. Not sure what RDU got but I was working just north of RDU.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's the ICON but it looks much better than the GFS or Euro (will probably be squashed) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 30 years ago, it wasn't much different in my area than what we are experiencing now. That was when I experienced the longest streak of snowless winters in my lifetime. It was a terrible period of time for snow lovers around here. 31 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. It's still more than a year away in my area before that happens. Looking back at my records, Eden went from December 13th, 1989, to February 26th, 1993, without accumulating snow. 3 years, 2 months, and 14 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 No need for me to pile on but there’s not much to see here. The cold pattern looks seasonal at best and seasonal isn’t going to get it done. Not to be doom and gloom but I said a few weeks ago we would all have to adjust our expectations with climate change and here we are. Winter conditions are going to be increasingly unlikely outside of the mts and that’s just our reality. When we do get snow (and we will), enjoy the hell out of it because you’ll never know how long it’ll be until the next round. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The 2/13-20 0Z 2/10 GEFS predicted AO rose quite a bit again to -2.2 (see image below) vs -2.7 on 2/9, -3.2 on 2/8, -3.0 on 2/7, and -3.5 on 2/6. Also, the NAO is higher. So, not good trends for 2nd day in a row at 0Z on the GEFS: Today’s AO: 2/13-20 at -2.2 Compare to just 2 days ago: 2/13-20 at -3.2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11 I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS is another perfect track miller A rainstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later! Yep I’m taking my daughter to the farm right now. Spring has sprung 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: GFS is another perfect track miller A rainstorm At least the sun angle can help dry out the golf courses faster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later!Fishing now! . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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