ncforecaster89 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Dare I say that happy hour might be interesting? Only if it ultimately leads to a “happy ending!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS looks like it might be too amped/warm, let's see where it goes. The ICON looked better but only goes to 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS looks like it might be too amped/warm, let's see where it goes. The ICON looked better but only goes to 180. GFS looks a mess to be honest. No cold air around and the timing of the system keeps moving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I should have went to bed early. Totally different than 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not much run to run difference eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS looks a mess to be honest. No cold air around and the timing of the system keeps moving up GFS has the right idea with the cold rain. Until I see it show a snowstorm within current range (< 200 hours) for more than 1 run, it is safe to assume it is right with this look. Snow really seems to be getting more difficult to produce south of DC now days and even they struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It rains to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Don't look at the CMC. haha. 0z Canadian has a Big Winter Storm for Northern NC/VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS has the right idea with the cold rain. Until I see it show a snowstorm within current range (< 200 hours) for more than 1 run, it is safe to assume it is right with this look. Snow really seems to be getting more difficult to produce south of DC now days and even they struggle. It's not even a cold rain TBH lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: It's not even a cold rain TBH lol Chilly rain haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at the CMC. haha. 0z Canadian has a Big Winter Storm for Northern NC/VA Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk It's super borderline for NC but a lot better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The pacific pattern of the past few years will certainly be one worth studying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: It rains to NYC Occam's Razor should be applicable here. Don't get fancy with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at the CMC. haha. 0z Canadian has a Big Winter Storm for Northern NC/VA Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Just needs a few runs to get to the GFS solution. It already made a huge jump from its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 CMCSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 CMC Snow and ICE totals Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Canadian went from suppressed to cold rain for a lot of us, GFS went from a good look to a torch. Probably not wise to bet against this persistent SE Ridge 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Look at all this rain on the GFS.. if only it could get cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Look at all this rain on the GFS.. if only it could get cold again Hopefully that was a fluke run. Good thing is, the Euro and now CMC are colder than the GFS.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Hopefully that was a fluke run. Good thing is, the Euro and now CMC are colder than the GFS. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk The CMC also waffles hundreds of miles north this run with the moisture and was less cold than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The pacific pattern of the past few years will certainly be one worth studying All this blocking looks to be a mirage or short lived. Cue the Masters music 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Knew a run like that would happen eventually. There's been plenty of members like that in the ensemble the whole time. We've been slow and steady losing the PNA on modeling for a while now, that's critical for our cold air delivery. Is what it is unfortunately. This multi year trend of the pacific always screwing us is just unrelenting. I just don't see a way out of it, and next year's La Niña will only serve to keep that pattern rolling. Math says climo favored areas luck into something eventually, and who knows maybe this is still the one, but extended winter weather appears a thing of the past until something can break this pacific regime we've found ourselves in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m guessing the European will be different but closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The fact people even mention the CMC here other than anecdotally is hilarious. It’s a horrible model. The writing is on the wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GEFS is below normal for the 18-20th period, near normal 20-22, then WAY above normal the rest of the month. Sound familiar to Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GEFS is below normal for the 18-20th period, near normal 20-22, then WAY above normal the rest of the month. Sound familiar to Jan? The SER cometh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The NAO forecast has completely lost the blocking we were counting on. 50/50 low for cold air source? Gone. I mean the rug has been pulled for those who were still holding out hope. Maybe the PD storm times it well enough for a little CAD mix in favored areas but the pattern change isn’t so much a change as a 3-4 day transient shot before we return to pac dominated continental air. All ensembles are warming and those weeklies that were so locked into this time period are showing their true value: nothing. It’s spring time, get out and enjoy the 75 degrees today. If it wasn’t overcast we’d be smashing records area wide today, that’s the only part of this forecast that’s held true through the period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 EURO just dropped, it’s all rain. Not AS hideous as GFS but absolutely no cold air anywhere close to work with despite a nearly perfect track. Even the mountains are mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The fact people even mention the CMC here other than anecdotally is hilarious. It’s a horrible model. The writing is on the wall. yep, we are grasping at straws. Game over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Did someone say 0Z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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