Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[CaryWx]

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2024: +TBD/0.0”

I’m calling it. Jokes aside, we’re going to have to see Ops start to pick up on something soon or this period is cooked. Maybe we get BN but it takes much more than that to snow and it’s either going to start to be sniffed out or we’re onto spring (most probably already are)

ops are finding it

[PackGrad05]

February 15-17 looks decent..  Definitely has the split flow look.

[Tullioz]

The 0z GFS is showing some love for much of NC on Valentine's Day. 

[SnowDawg]

I have little doubt that we get a colder pattern with a few chances, but I'm not overly optimistic at this point in getting a good board wide system. Looks like a lot of late phasing messes, or missed phase suppressed southern stream waves. Maybe the NAO isn't being felt enough, and if the flow backs up a better phase could happen. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The split flow looks great, blocking looks great, but you know what’s still the problem we’re going to have? There’s no real cold air. Even that fantasy storm last night was a product of rates and not there being a good arctic high in the source region. Until proven otherwise, it looks to me like a mid Atlantic setup where there might be just enough cold air north of us. We might get some storms but I’m doubtful the cold will be enough. We’re reaching the part of our climo where we need anomalous cold for frozen and that isn’t showing up 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’re reaching the part of our climo where we need anomalous cold for frozen and that isn’t showing up 

 -The mean calendar day snowfall is highest for 1/19, 1/25, 2/9, 2/26, and 3/2 with 3/2 the peak.

-The highest mean 7 day periods are 1/24-30 and 2/26-3/3 with 2/26-3/3 THE peak.

-There’s no telling how cold the SE will get. It is still too far out to have high confidence in and ensemble means are not going to show the degree of cold well due to timing differences of members causing a smoothing of the mean. But some of the projections I’ve seen are quite cold for that far out on a mean of an ensemble. Plus the cold is being forecasted to be strongest anomalywise in the E US rather than the mid Jan central US.

-The Euro Weeklies severely underestimated the degree of mid Jan cold  with them actually having warm anomalies throughout the US just over 2 weeks out! Even the map issued on 1/15 for 1/15-1/21 was quite a bit underdone.

-Moderate+ El Nino climo favors 2/15+ for the best period for snowfall, even moreso for the 9 that had none in Dec and Jan. Those 9 averaged over 5” just for 2/15+.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS is warmer 2/15 than any recent run.

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS: pretty wet SE 2/18-9 with 9 of 31 members having wintry precip. Many members have a GOM low.

[StantonParkHoya]

Daffodils blooming all around our neighborhood in Raleigh 

[GaWx]

EPS: ~25% of members have strong cold within 2/17-18 but snow is very limited (though it ends a day earlier than GEFS).

[wncsnow]

GaWx I appreciate your efforts and research but the writing is on the wall. Spring peepers are already singing in WNC and February has just started. They know winter is done. Sure it will get cold again for brief stretches but any prolonged winter pattern with multiple snow threats is a pipe dream. The closer we get to the pattern change the models will continue to moderate and push it back until its a cold front with a couple below average days before it warms up and rains again. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GaWx I appreciate your efforts and research but the writing is on the wall. Spring peepers are already singing in WNC and February has just started. They know winter is done. Sure it will get cold again for brief stretches but any prolonged winter pattern with multiple snow threats is a pipe dream. The closer we get to the pattern change the models will continue to moderate and push it back until its a cold front with a couple below average days before it warms up and rains again. 

So we just throw in the towel in the 3rd quarter. 
I suppose nobody remembers March 93.  
This was before my time but any remember hearing about March 1960 snowing every WednesdayIt stayed cold and the snow didn’t melt. That winter was mild and the first snow didn’t fall until February.  
Just saying just like the Super Bowl Patriots vs Atlanta. It wasn’t over at 1/2 time. 
 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

So we just throw in the towel in the 3rd quarter. 
I suppose nobody remembers March 93.  
This was before my time but any remember hearing about March 1960 snowing every WednesdayIt stayed cold and the snow didn’t melt. That winter was mild and the first snow didn’t fall until February.  
Just saying just like the Super Bowl Patriots vs Atlanta. It wasn’t over at 1/2 time. 
 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=1&start_day=1&start_year=1960&end_month=3&end_day=31&end_year=1960&event[0]=snow

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

EPS: ~25% of members have strong cold within 2/17-18 but snow is very limited (though it ends a day earlier than GEFS).

 Meanwhile, though the 12Z EPS has virtually no snow, the 0Z control has moderate snow 2/18 and 3/2-3.

[wncsnow]

58 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

So we just throw in the towel in the 3rd quarter. 
I suppose nobody remembers March 93.  
This was before my time but any remember hearing about March 1960 snowing every WednesdayIt stayed cold and the snow didn’t melt. That winter was mild and the first snow didn’t fall until February.  
Just saying just like the Super Bowl Patriots vs Atlanta. It wasn’t over at 1/2 time. 
 

It isn't 1960 anymore. Look at the Atlantic SST. 

[WNC_Fort]

You know we're down bad when people start throwing out March '93

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Daffodils blooming all around our neighborhood in Raleigh 

Yep they’re up here too

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 -The mean calendar day snowfall is highest for 1/19, 1/25, 2/9, 2/26, and 3/3 with 3/3 the peak.

-The highest mean 7 day periods are 1/24-30 and 2/26-3/3 with 2/26-3/3 THE peak.

-There’s no telling how cold the SE will get. It is still too far out to have high confidence in and ensemble means are not going to show the degree of cold well due to timing differences of members causing a smoothing of the mean. But some of the projections I’ve seen are quite cold for that far out on a mean of an ensemble. Plus the cold is being forecasted to be strongest anomalywise in the E US rather than the mid Jan central US.

-The Euro Weeklies severely underestimated the degree of mid Jan cold  with them actually having warm anomalies throughout the US just over 2 weeks out! Even the map issued on 1/15 for 1/15-1/21 was quite a bit underdone.

-Moderate+ El Nino climo favors 2/15+ for the best period for snowfall, even moreso for the 9 that had none in Dec and Jan. Those 9 averaged over 5” just for 2/15+.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

My point wasn’t that this isn’t a good climo period for snow, it was that you need anomalous cold to snow late in February. All those years with big storms you mention brought that at the right time. It seems we get closer and it keeps warming up soon as we get inside 15 days. Maybe I’m wrong but until we get a sustained cold signal in New England with this pattern, it will just result in cold rain south of the mid Atlantic 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not liking the 18z cold push into the Mississippi valley. That hasn’t worked here 

[Tullioz]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It isn't 1960 anymore. Look at the Atlantic SST. 

Higher SSTs may be more of an asset than a liability when it comes to winter storms along the east coast.

Climate Change and Extreme Snow in the U.S.

Conditions that influence the severity of eastern U.S. snowstorms include warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic. These can lead to exceptionally high amounts of moisture flowing into a storm and contribute to greater intensification of the storm. Unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic were a contributing factor to the February 5–6, 2010, snowstorm dubbed “snowmaggedon” that hit Washington, DC, with 17.8 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport—the fourth highest total storm amount for the city at the time.

Also, some recent research has shown that increasing surface temperatures and reductions in Arctic sea ice may produce atmospheric circulation patterns that are favorable for winter storm development in the eastern United States. 

In addition, studies have shown that natural variability associated with the presence of El Niño conditions has a strong influence on the incidence of severe snowstorms in the eastern United States. Based on an analysis of the top 100 snowstorms in six regions east of the Rocky Mountains, scientists found that severe snowstorms are approximately twice as likely to occur in the Northeast and Southeast regions during years when a moderate to strong El Niño is present as compared to years when neutral conditions exist.

 

[knowledgeispwr]

51 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

Higher SSTs may be more of an asset than a liability when it comes to winter storms along the east coast.

Climate Change and Extreme Snow in the U.S.

Conditions that influence the severity of eastern U.S. snowstorms include warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic. These can lead to exceptionally high amounts of moisture flowing into a storm and contribute to greater intensification of the storm. Unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic were a contributing factor to the February 5–6, 2010, snowstorm dubbed “snowmaggedon” that hit Washington, DC, with 17.8 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport—the fourth highest total storm amount for the city at the time.

Also, some recent research has shown that increasing surface temperatures and reductions in Arctic sea ice may produce atmospheric circulation patterns that are favorable for winter storm development in the eastern United States. 

In addition, studies have shown that natural variability associated with the presence of El Niño conditions has a strong influence on the incidence of severe snowstorms in the eastern United States. Based on an analysis of the top 100 snowstorms in six regions east of the Rocky Mountains, scientists found that severe snowstorms are approximately twice as likely to occur in the Northeast and Southeast regions during years when a moderate to strong El Niño is present as compared to years when neutral conditions exist.

 

I wonder though how much warmer Atlantic SST actually help for snowstorms south of northern and central VA.

4 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

So we just throw in the towel in the 3rd quarter. 
I suppose nobody remembers March 93.  
This was before my time but any remember hearing about March 1960 snowing every WednesdayIt stayed cold and the snow didn’t melt. That winter was mild and the first snow didn’t fall until February.  
Just saying just like the Super Bowl Patriots vs Atlanta. It wasn’t over at 1/2 time. 
 

Our forecast tools are much better now than during the time periods you mentioned.

[GaWx]

 About 30% of the 18Z GEFS members have wintry precip in the SE outside of the mountains during 2/17-19.

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, Tullioz said:

Higher SSTs may be more of an asset than a liability when it comes to winter storms along the east coast.

Climate Change and Extreme Snow in the U.S.

Conditions that influence the severity of eastern U.S. snowstorms include warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic. These can lead to exceptionally high amounts of moisture flowing into a storm and contribute to greater intensification of the storm. Unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic were a contributing factor to the February 5–6, 2010, snowstorm dubbed “snowmaggedon” that hit Washington, DC, with 17.8 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport—the fourth highest total storm amount for the city at the time.

Also, some recent research has shown that increasing surface temperatures and reductions in Arctic sea ice may produce atmospheric circulation patterns that are favorable for winter storm development in the eastern United States. 

In addition, studies have shown that natural variability associated with the presence of El Niño conditions has a strong influence on the incidence of severe snowstorms in the eastern United States. Based on an analysis of the top 100 snowstorms in six regions east of the Rocky Mountains, scientists found that severe snowstorms are approximately twice as likely to occur in the Northeast and Southeast regions during years when a moderate to strong El Niño is present as compared to years when neutral conditions exist.

 

They also might be influencing the strength of SE ridges with stronger highs in the winter. 

[PackGrad05]

We are just now getting into range of the middle of February...  and even that is still in fantasy land. 

I like the look of the long range.  

[Coach McGuirk]

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

We are just now getting into range of the middle of February...  and even that is still in fantasy land. 

I like the look of the long range.  

How often have we said that?

[Coach McGuirk]

Unless Georgia gets snow, I don't like the look of the long range.

[GaWx]

 The potential isn’t going away folks. Rather, it is persisting and as we get closer it is increasing. The potential on the 6Z GEFS for widespread significant wintry precip during a portion of Feb 15-20 in NC and more specifically from a classic Miller A GOM originating low throughout a large portion of the SE during a portion of Feb 17-20 is about as high as I can remember on any GEFS in recent years when looking out 11-16 days. When I consider not only the actual panels of the run but also similar model runs of the last few days along with the progged solid +PNA/-EPO/-AO, neutral to -NAO, a persistent 50/50 low, a strong El Niño related subtropical jet/split flow, and moderate+ Nino mid to late Feb climo, it is hard to hold in my enthusiasm for what MAY occur. And it is always a matter of what MAY and never nowhere near what WILL when looking out 11-16 days. The MAY is why we have these forecast discussion threads as opposed to nonexistent crystal ball threads.

Classic split flow:

 

Many members with Miller A GOM/off SE coast lows:

[wncsnow]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The potential isn’t going away folks. Rather, it is persisting and as we get closer it is increasing. The potential on the 6Z GEFS for widespread significant wintry precip during a portion of Feb 15-20 in NC and more specifically from a classic Miller A GOM originating low throughout a large portion of the SE during a portion of Feb 17-20 is about as high as I can remember on any GEFS in recent years when looking out 11-16 days. When I consider not only the actual panels of the run but also similar model runs of the last few days along with the progged solid +PNA/-EPO/-AO, neutral to -NAO, a persistent 50/50 low, a strong El Niño related subtropical jet/split flow, and moderate+ Nino mid to late Feb climo, it is hard to hold in my enthusiasm for what MAY occur. And it is always a matter of what MAY and never nowhere near what WILL when looking out 11-16 days. The MAY is why we have these forecast discussion threads as opposed to nonexistent crystal ball threads.

Classic split flow:

 

Many members with Miller A GOM/off SE coast lows:

It would be more promising with agreement from the EPS. 

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It would be more promising with agreement from the EPS. 

The EPS looks fine starting around the 13th. Classic west coast ridge east coast trough.

[Met1985]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The potential isn’t going away folks. Rather, it is persisting and as we get closer it is increasing. The potential on the 6Z GEFS for widespread significant wintry precip during a portion of Feb 15-20 in NC and more specifically from a classic Miller A GOM originating low throughout a large portion of the SE during a portion of Feb 17-20 is about as high as I can remember on any GEFS in recent years when looking out 11-16 days. When I consider not only the actual panels of the run but also similar model runs of the last few days along with the progged solid +PNA/-EPO/-AO, neutral to -NAO, a persistent 50/50 low, a strong El Niño related subtropical jet/split flow, and moderate+ Nino mid to late Feb climo, it is hard to hold in my enthusiasm for what MAY occur. And it is always a matter of what MAY and never nowhere near what WILL when looking out 11-16 days. The MAY is why we have these forecast discussion threads as opposed to nonexistent crystal ball threads.

Classic split flow:

 

Many members with Miller A GOM/off SE coast lows:

Yes sir Larry! Everything looks good from an overnight perspective of things. Looking at the big picture.