SnowGoose69 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: How so? It looks decent to me. Cold air boundary moving south with reinforcements over time There is going to be more SE ridging I think in the 2/11/-2/15 period than many think. I feel some felt 2/13-2/15 would become prime time, and maybe for those in NYC or BOS it could have chances but for the SE you probably are looking at 2/17 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: How so? It looks decent to me. Cold air boundary moving south with reinforcements over time For the SE, the last few days of the 12Z GFS don’t look good at 500 mb for sustained cold air. Too zonal imo. And then up at Chicago and MSP, the coldest was an AN mid 20s. Most of the recent runs looked better to me. It doesn’t matter much because it is just the low accuracy late GFS and the 12Z GEFS looks better at H5 and is similar to recent GEFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is going to be more SE ridging I think in the 2/11/-2/15 period than many think. I feel some felt 2/13-2/15 would become prime time, and maybe for those in NYC or BOS it could have chances but for the SE you probably are looking at 2/17 or so. I’ve been thinking “prime time” winter storm opportunities in the SE wouldn’t likely start til ~2/18-19 but with colder dominating starting ~2/15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’ve been thinking “prime time” winter storm opportunities in the SE wouldn’t likely start til ~2/18-19 but with colder dominating starting ~2/15. Yeah, I don’t think the prime time starts until after 2/15 anyway. The week before that appears to more of a transition period 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 That 10-12th period has the potential to challenge some record warmth. That’s a beast of a HP over the Bahamas and as of now it looks like there will be a lot of sun during that hard southerly flow. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some temps close to 80 with that look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That 10-12th period has the potential to challenge some record warmth. That’s a beast of a HP over the Bahamas and as of now it looks like there will be a lot of sun during that hard southerly flow. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some temps close to 80 with that look Might enjoy the break if we are tracking a good one inside 7 days at that point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The cold honestly looks rather transient or at least interspersed with some above normal days. And frankly, if it’s not going to snow, I’d prefer we just get on with spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 better luck next winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Where did everybody go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Where did everybody go? It's been 750 or more days since most of us has been able to enjoy accumulating snow. The next 10 days is going to be spring like. Most people are in the prove it stage with the possible "good" pattern. We were told it was game on from January 15th on. Here we are on Feb 1 with no snow for most of the region and none in sight for at least 2 weeks. It's also rained over 10 inches for most of the area that past month. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The cold is just coming into focus with the op models. The Weeklies and ensembles look on track but I mean I get it. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Did @phil882see his shadow yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Thankfully it doesn’t agree with its ensemble, because the 6z GFS says “what cold air?” When it’s above freezing in our source region, we’re cooked regardless if our temps are slightly below normal. Ensemble still relatively unchanged, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 9 hours ago, wncsnow said: It's been 750 or more days since most of us has been able to enjoy accumulating snow. The next 10 days is going to be spring like. Most people are in the prove it stage with the possible "good" pattern. We were told it was game on from January 15th on. Here we are on Feb 1 with no snow for most of the region and none in sight for at least 2 weeks. It's also rained over 10 inches for most of the area that past month. That about sums it up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Phil says an early spring is coming! That fat rat is finally going to be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Brad P when someone says how exciting the upcoming pattern looks on his FB page - "Not really." 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Finally made it to South Dakota this week and yes I saw some old snow patches on the ground. But I have also been working outside in a short sleeve shirt under some beautiful blue skies and a little pink on my face from the sun. No cold in sight here either. Maybe we'll have a March Miracle. But Fab Feb is done before it ever got started. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 71 forecast here for Super Bowl Sunday. Maybe we'll finally get some decent weather for our annual Super Bowl Sunday backwards par 3 tournament. May have to break out shorts and sunscreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 38 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Brad P when someone says how exciting the upcoming pattern looks on his FB page - "Not really." he’s probably seeing the same cutters we’re all seeing on the models. It’s been a great winter for the Tennessee Valley and weather has a memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Sometimes I feel like long range tracking is a bit like surfing. You're waiting for that perfect wave to come along, big enough, breaks at the right angle and where you're at. Sometimes you look off in the distance and see what looks like the perfect wave. It's all coming together. But at the last minute you realize it's just a swell that doesn't really break, or it peters out. Some days you're out there and wave after wave just doesn't break the way you need it too. You think you're unlucky at first, but after a while you realize, without a shift of the wind, or moving to a different location, all the waves are going to break that way. We need that proverbial wind shift and if it never comes, we all need to move to buffalo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 On 1/10/2024 at 3:29 PM, msuwx said: Writing off 21 days with tons of arctic air in the pattern is an interesting position. Interesting indeed. (Man, we suck.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Interesting indeed. (Man, we suck.) The issue here is “tons of arctic air” that never made it over the mountains. Nashville over there sitting below 0 with 6” of snow and stuck below freezing for a week while we made it to 18 one night. We suck so much 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Finally made it to South Dakota this week and yes I saw some old snow patches on the ground. But I have also been working outside in a short sleeve shirt under some beautiful blue skies and a little pink on my face from the sun. No cold in sight here either. Maybe we'll have a March Miracle. But Fab Feb is done before it ever got started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Per the latest model consensus, there’s a very good chance that the PNA for the 2nd half of Feb (2/15-29) will average +0.5+ and the AO will average sub -1. The following El Niño 2nd half of Febs met both of those conditions: 1988, 1983, 1978, 1977, 1970, 1964, 1958 So, during 1957-1988, 7 of the 13 El Niños met both of these. But interestingly the subsequent 10 didn’t. So, 2024 would be the first of the last 11. How did those 7 last half of Febs play out at RDU in terms of temperature anomaly and snowfall? 1988: -3/0.0” 1983: -3/0.4” 1978: -11/5.6” 1977: -3/1.5” 1970: -7/T 1964: -9/2.0” 1958: -9/3.0” AVG: -6/1.8” So, temps were BN 4 times and MBN 3 times. Snowfall was AN for all 3 MBN temperatures and BN for 3 of the 4 BN temperatures. The average was BN for temperatures and AN for snowfall. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Per the latest model consensus, there’s a very good chance that the PNA for the 2nd half of Feb (2/15-29) will average +0.5+ and the AO will average sub -1. The following El Niño 2nd half of Febs met both of those conditions: 1988, 1983, 1978, 1977, 1970, 1964, 1958 So, during 1957-1988, 7 of the 13 El Niños met both of these. But interestingly the subsequent 10 didn’t. So, 2024 would be the first of the last 11. How did those 7 last half of Febs play out at RDU in terms of temperature anomaly and snowfall? 1988: -3/0.0” 1983: -3/0.4” 1978: -11/5.6” 1977: -3/1.5” 1970: -7/T 1964: -9/2.0” 1958: -9/3.0” AVG: -6/1.8” So, temps were BN 4 times and MBN 3 times. Snowfall was AN for all 3 MBN temperatures and BN for 3 of the 4 BN temperatures. The average was BN for temperatures and AN for snowfall. 2024: +TBD/0.0” I’m calling it. Jokes aside, we’re going to have to see Ops start to pick up on something soon or this period is cooked. Maybe we get BN but it takes much more than that to snow and it’s either going to start to be sniffed out or we’re onto spring (most probably already are) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Per the latest model consensus, there’s a very good chance that the PNA for the 2nd half of Feb (2/15-29) will average +0.5+ and the AO will average sub -1. The following El Niño 2nd half of Febs met both of those conditions: 1988, 1983, 1978, 1977, 1970, 1964, 1958 So, during 1957-1988, 7 of the 13 El Niños met both of these. But interestingly the subsequent 10 didn’t. So, 2024 would be the first of the last 11. How did those 7 last half of Febs play out at RDU in terms of temperature anomaly and snowfall? 1988: -3/0.0” 1983: -3/0.4” 1978: -11/5.6” 1977: -3/1.5” 1970: -7/T 1964: -9/2.0” 1958: -9/3.0” AVG: -6/1.8” So, temps were BN 4 times and MBN 3 times. Snowfall was AN for all 3 MBN temperatures and BN for 3 of the 4 BN temperatures. The average was BN for temperatures and AN for snowfall. 78 and 83 were pretty memorable in the upstate of SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said: 78 and 83 were pretty memorable in the upstate of SC 1. Tiger, also, 1964 was good and 1958 was great. 2. Come to papa (from 12Z GEFS)(GEPS similar) as at a minimum the ducks are on the pond. Look at all of the lows (red) in the Gulf: Along with a cold SE helped by -AO: Check out the split flow along with 50/50 low (helps hold cold in longer) just off the NE corner of the image: And if the period just after this doesn’t workout, the new Euro Weeklies are suggesting within the following week for an opportunity. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Pretty easy to see why folks are discouraged right now 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 It's hard to believe any winter could be worse than last winter. This one has a good shot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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