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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


buckeyefan1
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  On 1/29/2024 at 4:19 PM, wncsnow said:

Higher elevations get crushed with that slow moving low. Soo close to a big snow for foothills too..

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Wackiest run of the year. Easily.snowing in the piedmont at 189. Maybe the only way we can win is something like this where it gets delayed so much the cold can work back in.

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  On 1/29/2024 at 4:42 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dr. Jonathan Wall

@_jwall

What does NC need for this storm to work out? Example: 1) A low track from TX/OK border thru the SE. 2) A Low anchored in the NE, aka 50/50 low, that helps drive in our cold air given we don’t have a banana High or large HP cold source.

 

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Thanks for the deep dive.

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  On 1/29/2024 at 6:42 PM, BooneWX said:

Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps. 

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Trying to understand here.  Does it require the low to turn north up the coast in order to create the negative tilt?  I noticed that this one is just shooting straight out to sea.

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  On 1/29/2024 at 7:03 PM, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Trying to understand here.  Does it require the low to turn north up the coast in order to create the negative tilt?  I noticed that this one is just shooting straight out to sea.

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Climbing the coast doesn’t create negative tilt, we just need the energy to dig a bit more and consolidate, which gives us a better chance at a negatively tilted storm. Right now it’s weak and strung out.  It’s shooting out to sea at the moment because it has no room to lift north because of the 50/50 low blocking it near Nova Scotia. The trend during 12z is to scoot that 50/50 low further east, letting the storm have more room to climb and high pressure feeding cold air down the spine of the apps. All positive steps but a slightly more amplified storm would help a bit. 

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  On 1/29/2024 at 7:10 PM, BooneWX said:

Come to think of it, the last 3 model cycles have introduced very drastic changes to our cold air source from the north. If we’re trending away from the 50/50 low as a source, we really need that high to anchor. 

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You're referring the one in the OV showing up on the ensembles correct?  I need it just a hair east and anchored.  :)

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 Trend of 12Z models overall continues with the idea of a much weaker cold press from the NE/lowered wintry threat for most of the SE without that strong cold air that was on yesterday’s models and today’s 0Z ICON. There’s still time for a reversal or the possibility of some wintry from the cold air upstairs associated with the upper low, but my overall interest from a wintry aspect has dropped significantly from where it was yesterday. It was too warm for wintry when it first showed up and has now gone back in that direction quite a bit though not entirely as of yet.

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