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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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Andrew Markowitz: “This looks like the next potential window for winter weather on the East Coast. Somewhat untraditional pattern with a Rex Block over the Hudson Bay and the jet stream undercutting it to the south. Confluence over New England is a limiting factor, this screams Mid-Atlantic to SE.”

 

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21 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Hopefully we get some NW trends that will put NC in the game

NC has gotten burned so often by this dreaded trend..forced to watch in misery as friends up north get pasted.  The meltdown threads of lost storms the past 5-10 years on this forum are nothing short legendary. and actually quite sad.

There are three constants when it comes to winter weather in the southeast that you must always remember.

1. The warm nose will always overperform

2. The Northern trend is inevitable

3. The Appalachian mountains will shred anything to their west

Anytime you're tracking a storm, apply these principles in relation to said storm.  and always lean towards more conservative solutions.

 

But to give everyone some hope, the Euro and other models do have a suppression bias.  The trend north is just an overcorrection for that bias overtime.  So NC folks should be in a good position when taking that into account.

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1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said:

Still very suppressed

For sure. More or less the same. Not good trends today but we still have time. it's actually quite common to have storms disappear due to suppression squashing them into the Gulf. Probably just as common as the NW trend leading to rain rather than snow. Kinda makes sense with all the big rex block, and positive tilt

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4 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Looks like the low was a bit further north which has been a trend over the past few runs. When you look at the other models and ensembles, it’s not a terrible look.


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It maybe moved slightly north so yea that’s a good thing but it’s not even close at this point. I was referencing it driving more 70’s into NC mid month 

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3 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off.


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Late Feb is not what I want to be banking on. That’s spring in these parts lately.

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1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off.


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lol we’ve gone from expecting a good year with multiple threats to hoping an inch or two might bail us out in late February. Pattern is good coming up, I agree, but until it actually snows here again I’m going to pout and believe it’s impossible :arrowhead:

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9 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off.


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Ehhh…Just give me 70 and sunny so I can pull out the golf clubs. I’m tired of the cold and dry or warm and wet this Winter.

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