WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Andrew Markowitz: “This looks like the next potential window for winter weather on the East Coast. Somewhat untraditional pattern with a Rex Block over the Hudson Bay and the jet stream undercutting it to the south. Confluence over New England is a limiting factor, this screams Mid-Atlantic to SE.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Something tells me the European will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Euro was suppressed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Something tells me the European will be interesting.12z EURO suppressed Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Would love to get excited about this one and we still have plenty of time... but right now with the Euro and GFS both going with suppression... its hard to bet against that. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Hopefully we get some NW trends that will put NC in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 As previously alluded to, a little white rain possible Wednesday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 21 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Hopefully we get some NW trends that will put NC in the game NC has gotten burned so often by this dreaded trend..forced to watch in misery as friends up north get pasted. The meltdown threads of lost storms the past 5-10 years on this forum are nothing short legendary. and actually quite sad. There are three constants when it comes to winter weather in the southeast that you must always remember. 1. The warm nose will always overperform 2. The Northern trend is inevitable 3. The Appalachian mountains will shred anything to their west Anytime you're tracking a storm, apply these principles in relation to said storm. and always lean towards more conservative solutions. But to give everyone some hope, the Euro and other models do have a suppression bias. The trend north is just an overcorrection for that bias overtime. So NC folks should be in a good position when taking that into account. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Wouldn’t sweat the euro. A 985 mb low just off of Myrtle beach that’s essentially completely devoid of moisture isn’t an output I’d take literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m gonna start the storm thread. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GFS looking juiced so far down in Texas. Let's see if we can get a little step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: Wouldn’t sweat the euro. A 985 mb low just off of Myrtle beach that’s essentially completely devoid of moisture isn’t an output I’d take literally. Positive tilt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: GFS looking juiced so far down in Texas. Let's see if we can get a little step in the right direction Still very suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said: Still very suppressed For sure. More or less the same. Not good trends today but we still have time. it's actually quite common to have storms disappear due to suppression squashing them into the Gulf. Probably just as common as the NW trend leading to rain rather than snow. Kinda makes sense with all the big rex block, and positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This run actually looks much better at 500… I’d say positive trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 There was less cold overall on this run and it is suppressed. Is it not the case that a trend north would bring in more warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Don’t look at the 18z GFS without a drink or 6 if you were hoping for positivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Looks like the low was a bit further north which has been a trend over the past few runs. When you look at the other models and ensembles, it’s not a terrible look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Looks like the low was a bit further north which has been a trend over the past few runs. When you look at the other models and ensembles, it’s not a terrible look. . It maybe moved slightly north so yea that’s a good thing but it’s not even close at this point. I was referencing it driving more 70’s into NC mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off. . Late Feb is not what I want to be banking on. That’s spring in these parts lately. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off. . lol we’ve gone from expecting a good year with multiple threats to hoping an inch or two might bail us out in late February. Pattern is good coming up, I agree, but until it actually snows here again I’m going to pout and believe it’s impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off. . Ehhh…Just give me 70 and sunny so I can pull out the golf clubs. I’m tired of the cold and dry or warm and wet this Winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Late Feb is not what I want to be banking on. That’s spring in these parts lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I feel ya but that’s the best chance we will have besides 8 days from now and that looks to be a good chance for something after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The trend is clear. I wouldn't quite write this one off yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 We're the changes at H5 positive or negative?Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: We're the changes at H5 positive or negative? Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Neutral. Not really a major change one way or another. Maybe if you squint but just noise to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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