wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not in Raleighwood my friend. 55 and rain. It's snowed plenty of times in Raleigh in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS continuing the trend of South and weaker. I really think we might sneak an advisory level maybe even warning event above 3k north of 40. Inch or 2 of sleet and snow with .10-.25 ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 25 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS continuing the trend of South and weaker. I really think we might sneak an advisory level maybe even warning event above 3k north of 40. Inch or 2 of sleet and snow with .10-.25 ZR We're getting close to something interesting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 and onto next weeks flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: ICON I’m normally very skeptical about in-situ CAD setups because the dew points rarely verify on the lower scale as the models depict, but this one is starting to get interesting for the CAD region. If that low continues to look less amped and further south, I’m afraid that cad won’t be easily scoured out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’m normally very skeptical about in-situ CAD setups because the dew points rarely verify on the lower scale as the models depict, but this one is starting to get interesting for the CAD region. If that low continues to look less amped and further south, I’m afraid that cad won’t be easily scoured out. I’m desperate enough now to hope for ice. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 6z eps It's showing a front end of snow and sleet for the mountains and immediate foothills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A lot of the long range guidance has gone back to SE Ridge and cold dump in the west.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: A lot of the long range guidance has gone back to SE Ridge and cold dump in the west.. Yeah, almost certainly MJO related. EPS moved towards the GFS idea of getting into phase 4, instead of stalling into the COD at phase 3. Just one run, so could change. And even so, any warm period would likely be brief given the changes still advertised in the higher latitudes, and that the MJO is still likely heading into the COD even if it does get into phase 4 for a bit. Mid January thaw is an expected part of strong Niño so I'm not panicking over it yet. I think the writing has been on the wall for a while now that our winter will be make or break on peak Niño climo from late Jan through all of Feb coming through for us. Lucky for us it really only takes one good storm down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A little front end snow with the next system. Something to watch anyway as the upcoming storm tending south/weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Briefly is better than not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If I was in the mid Atlantic I’d be pressing the panic button hard as it relates to this weekends system. It has really become a progressive strung out mess. Pretty much everyone outside the mountains/foothills going to struggle with BL issues even up north unless the storm winds up as it looked like it would do past couple days. For us, the can has been kicked to late month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If I was in the mid Atlantic I’d be pressing the panic button hard as it relates to this weekends system. It has really become a progressive strung out mess. Pretty much everyone outside the mountains/foothills going to struggle with BL issues even up north unless the storm winds up as it looked like it would do past couple days. For us, the can has been kicked to late month DC gave up last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looking at the last 24 hours of model runs leads me to believe the next 2-3 weeks are going to be a wild ride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Looking at the last 24 hours of model runs leads me to believe the next 2-3 weeks are going to be a wild ride. Lots of CAD possibilities but we just cannot time any right with a HP for anything substantial per current modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Is the lack of a stout western ridge and the Pacific jet the culprits? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: Is the lack of a stout western ridge and the Pacific jet the culprits? Mostly yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 56 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Lots of CAD possibilities but we just cannot time any right with a HP for anything substantial per current modeling. Ops not showing anthing to hang our hats on but with active pattern, arctic air in our hemisphere, blocking posibly showing up, who knows? It only takes one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 41 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Mostly yes. The Pacific looks like its not going to cooperate. Will have to rely on HL blocking IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo If the blocking is as advertised then this flip to -WPO may be the last piece of the puzzle we need, allowing the cold to bleed eastward off the plains. Frankly, this can be better than an arctic blast being dropped right on top of us and suppressing everything to Cuba. But the question as always remains, will these positive changes ever actually come to fruition? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1742610959229755620?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Forecast: the sanitarium is full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1742610959229755620?s=46 What's a moderate value? +1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 hours ago, olafminesaw said: The 0Z EPS is the coldest run yet for the E US in mid January. Thus, I expect today’s Euro Weekly for 1/15-22 to be the coldest yet for that week in the E US. After that week, we’ll see if 1/22-29 is colder than yesterday. With the midmonth cold extending into the SE, that may turn out to be one of (if not) the best shots at significant wintry precip in much of the SE of this winter with some chance of that even deep into the SE. Interestingly, this would likely be when the MJO is in or near phase 4, often a warm phase. But often doesn’t mean always. Consider Christmas of 2022 for example. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 A good question is how come the models keep teasing us with winter weather chances 10+ days out and loose them when we get under 5 days? We have to seriously consider asking the question if the models have been programmed by snow weenies instead of scientific based meteorologists. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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