olafminesaw Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 At least we won't have to endure storm threats 10 days out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 hours ago, Divine said: The idea you can accurately project the weather form a month from now is laughable. Things can change very quick. You should not trust weather 7-10 days out, much less a period a month from now. While I do agree with this, for snow almost always, with the tools we now have, you can at least nail down a time period a couple weeks in advance where players will be on the field for an event. It doesn’t mean we can tell if it will snow or predict the sensible weather on a specific day that far, but you can tell that, if everything works in our favor there will be a chance as we get closer. The flip side to that: we can also tell very far in advance now when the players needed for snow will not be present. Years ago this wasn’t possible to the extent we have now. However, I can look at models and indices and say with 95% confidence and accuracy whether or not there is a potential in the next 2 weeks. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that shows 1) cold source 2) pattern change during that period. That’s why this board gets so negative is we know snow is hard to come by as is, and when we’re halfway through our snow season and looking down the barrel of certainty that all of January and the start of February we will be blanked, we are now only relying on hope that something will change in the long range (with nothing but analogs really pointing towards anything good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/1/2024 at 10:18 AM, NorthHillsWx said: I know everyone is fixated on the systems this week, but you have to love the long range look. The amped apps runner after the storm on the 7th really helps to set the stage for a real arctic outbreak and with snow cover north of us it really helps that cold air to make it south and east. Also, the niño effect on STJ is going strong through the period. I am extremely confident this forum will have multiple threats mid month and beyond and there are no signs that will be a short period either. So far, LR guidance has been extremely accurate with this pattern. From the flip we are experiencing now, to the brief warmup, then the real show begins. Save this post and bash me later, but I am becoming more and more bullish that the second half of January will bring us our shots. Oh how the taste of defeat stings. Yes, the pattern did flip and yes, the cold did come, but unfortunately we lost the blocking and the SER and PNA wrecked us. What looked like a cold second half of January turned into a cold 1/16-1/17 and 1/20-1/22 followed by a huge warmup late month. Coupled with the STJ just shutting off once the cold arrived, this period (though well forecast by models as being the period to watch) did not produce and was not as cold or as long duration as what it had looked like just a week ago. I know those in the Tennessee valley got it good, but east of the Apps, this entire period was severely disappointing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 These streaks are in serious jeopardy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Oh boy. That pacific jet could be raging. What’s the saying? What happens in December the winter will remember? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 At Raleigh, these four moderate or stronger El Niño winters had no measurable SN Dec and Jan but soon afterward the pattern abruptly changed between Feb 6 and Feb 14: 1913-14: - After an even shorter and less intense cold snap in mid Jan than the current one, the 3.5 week long period Jan 15-Feb 7 averaged 6 AN, which included 5 highs between 66 and 73 Jan 28-Feb 4. Then suddenly they plunged to average 10 BN Feb 8-Mar 23 with freezes on 26 of 44 days and 4 significant winter storms, which included 17.2” of SN. 1918-9: - 5 AN Jan 14-Feb 8 including 6 highs of 65-70 Jan 19-31 - 3.3” SN fell Feb 9 1923-4: - After 3 days of highs of 66-68 Feb 3-5 and AN Jan 29-Feb 5th, Feb 6th-29th averaged 7 BN along with 2.4” of SN. Another 2.1” fell in March. 1951-2: - 5 AN Dec 29-Feb 13 including 6 highs in 70s - 5 BN Feb 14-Mar 18 with 4.7” SN https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: At Raleigh, these four moderate or stronger El Niño winters had no measurable SN Dec and Jan but soon afterward the pattern abruptly changed between Feb 6 and Feb 14: 1913-14: - After an even shorter and less intense cold snap in mid Jan than the current one, the 3.5 week long period Jan 15-Feb 7 averaged 6 AN, which included 5 highs between 66 and 73 Jan 28-Feb 4. Then suddenly they plunged to average 10 BN Feb 8-Mar 23 with freezes on 26 of 44 days and 4 significant winter storms, which included 17.2” of SN. 1918-9: - 5 AN Jan 14-Feb 8 including 6 highs of 65-70 Jan 19-31 - 3.3” SN fell Feb 9 1923-4: - After 3 days of highs of 66-68 Feb 3-5 and AN Jan 29-Feb 5th, Feb 6th-29th averaged 7 BN along with 2.4” of SN. Another 2.1” fell in March. 1951-2: - 5 AN Dec 29-Feb 13 including 6 highs in 70s - 5 BN Feb 14-Mar 18 with 4.7” SN we don’t thank you enough for your contributions to the group 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, GaWx said: At Raleigh, these four moderate or stronger El Niño winters had no measurable SN Dec and Jan but soon afterward the pattern abruptly changed between Feb 6 and Feb 14: 1913-14: - After an even shorter and less intense cold snap in mid Jan than the current one, the 3.5 week long period Jan 15-Feb 7 averaged 6 AN, which included 5 highs between 66 and 73 Jan 28-Feb 4. Then suddenly they plunged to average 10 BN Feb 8-Mar 23 with freezes on 26 of 44 days and 4 significant winter storms, which included 17.2” of SN. 1918-9: - 5 AN Jan 14-Feb 8 including 6 highs of 65-70 Jan 19-31 - 3.3” SN fell Feb 9 1923-4: - After 3 days of highs of 66-68 Feb 3-5 and AN Jan 29-Feb 5th, Feb 6th-29th averaged 7 BN along with 2.4” of SN. Another 2.1” fell in March. 1951-2: - 5 AN Dec 29-Feb 13 including 6 highs in 70s - 5 BN Feb 14-Mar 18 with 4.7” SN https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Phenomenal post! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Fwiw hot off the press this is the average of the last 12 CFS 4 member ens runs for 2/22-2/29: this follows a mainly pretty mild first half of Feb; then sustained significantly colder first comes in near midmonth and intensifies; strong +PNA and -AO 2nd half of Feb; also a weak -NAO 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Fwiw hot off the press this is the average of the last 12 CFS 4 member ens runs for 2/22-2/29: this follows a mainly pretty mild first half of Feb; then sustained significantly colder first comes in near midmonth and intensifies; strong +PNA and -AO 2nd half of Feb; also a weak -NAO We're late in the 4th quarter by then, at least in the upstate of SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 53 minutes ago, Snow dog said: We're late in the 4th quarter by then, at least in the upstate of SC... Well - of 272 NFL games this year, there's a running average of 13.5 games that go to OT. So there's always that 5% of OT turning out in our favor....and look how much chaos ensues after the 2min warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, greendave said: Well - of 272 NFL games this year, there's a running average of 13.5 games that go to OT. So there's always that 5% of OT turning out in our favor....and look how much chaos ensues after the 2min warning. Sometimes you just need a Hail Mary! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Fwiw hot off the press this is the average of the last 12 CFS 4 member ens runs for 2/22-2/29: this follows a mainly pretty mild first half of Feb; then sustained significantly colder first comes in near midmonth and intensifies; strong +PNA and -AO 2nd half of Feb; also a weak -NAO Should be good enough for a colder rain! 2 degree lower anomaly when you’re pushing 60 for an average high ain’t doing much. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: Sometimes you just need a Hail Mary! Oh how I miss Boone winters....and football......and food.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Even the moderators have left. Talk about a depressing sight on here. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 19 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Even the moderators have left. Talk about a depressing sight on here. This forum has become ungovernable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 hours ago, Snow dog said: We're late in the 4th quarter by then, at least in the upstate of SC... But with it being a strong El Niño, the equivalent of Tom Brady is fortunately in at QB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: But with it being a strong El Niño, the equivalent of Tom Brady is fortunately in at QB! And Eli Manning is staring at him from the other sideline. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This forum has become ungovernable 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 19 hours ago, GaWx said: Fwiw hot off the press this is the average of the last 12 CFS 4 member ens runs for 2/22-2/29: this follows a mainly pretty mild first half of Feb; then sustained significantly colder first comes in near midmonth and intensifies; strong +PNA and -AO 2nd half of Feb; also a weak -NAO Dr. Jonathan Wall with addl sources of evidence to support the CFS. https://twitter.com/_jwall?lang=en 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, greendave said: Dr. Jonathan Wall with addl sources of evidence to support the CFS. https://twitter.com/_jwall?lang=en When I click on the link, it won’t let me see the actual tweet. It instead goes to a page asking me to sign-in. But I don’t have an account. I don’t get it because I normally can view a linked tweet despite not having an account. Are you able to embed this tweet in your post? The extended 1/18 GEFS fwiw agrees with the average of the last 12 CFS ensemble runs in having a pattern change to significantly colder in the SE that first occurs ~2/12-15 and extends through late Feb due to a combo of a solid +PNA/Aleutian low (SE 500 mb hts go BN) and -AO. SE precip anomalies hint at a mid or late Feb GOM low, with a nice ST jet/split flow likely helped by El Niño. Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies also agree. But before mid-Feb, all 3 agree on mild to warm dominating late Jan through early Feb. Thus the end of the two week models might continue to look ugly for another ~10 days. So, I’m hoping for and leaning toward an abrupt pattern change near mid-Feb that is similar to some other Nino winters that I showed yesterday (1914, 1919, 1924, 1952). We’ll see whether or not 2024 ends up to be similar. I’m optimistic but none of us have a crystal ball. And keep in mind that in the SE it often only takes one big storm to make it a snowy winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 28 minutes ago, GaWx said: When I click on the link, it won’t let me see the actual tweet. It instead goes to a page asking me to sign-in. But I don’t have an account. I don’t get it because I normally can view a linked tweet despite not having an account. Are you able to embed this tweet in your post? The extended 1/18 GEFS fwiw agrees with the average of the last 12 CFS ensemble runs in having a pattern change to significantly colder that first occurs ~2/12-15 and extends through late Feb due to a combo of a solid +PNA/Aleutian low (SE 500 mb hts go BN) and -AO. SE precip anomalies hint at a mid or late Feb GOM low, with a nice ST jet/split flow likely helped by El Niño. Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies also agree. But before mid-Feb, all 3 agree on mild to warm dominating late Jan through early Feb. Thus the end of the two week models might continue to look ugly for another 7-10 days. So, I’m hoping for and leaning toward an abrupt pattern change near mid-Feb that is similar to some other Nino winters that I showed yesterday (1914, 1919, 1924, 1952). We’ll whether or not 2024 ends up to be similar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Here’s the problem: that pattern change, assuming it happens, and assuming isn’t kicked down the road, means at a minimum we are burning the next 3-4 weeks of winter. We cannot afford to burn 3-4 weeks of winter when it’s already January 19 and everyone’s snowless. Been hopping into the MA forum. They’re having quite the week. Two over performing systems and sustained cold. Just a different world down here. It’s currently 52 out and long range GFS drives some 50’s into central Minnesota to begin February. This winter can kindly move along at this point. I’m sure it’s primed to give us 30’s and rain as we move into March 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Here’s the problem: that pattern change, assuming it happens, and assuming isn’t kicked down the road, means at a minimum we are burning the next 3-4 weeks of winter. We cannot afford to burn 3-4 weeks of winter when it’s already January 19 and everyone’s snowless. Most indications suggest that the next ~3.5 weeks will be mainly burned. That’s what we have to work with as it looks now. So, I’ve accepted that as likely and have already moved on instead of dwelling on it. Thus, now the hope is for what happens afterward. Regardless of what will end up happening prior to ~Feb 12th, the potential from that point on remains as high as ever based on a combo of the extended models and analogs. Arguably, it is even higher for mid-Feb onward as snowless Dec/Jan analogs are hinting at. All it takes is one big snow and the season could easily be AN for most in the SE. Thus a mid-Feb pattern change could easily still be early enough to make it an AN snow winter in much of the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Most indications suggest that the next ~3.5 weeks will be mainly burned. That’s what we have to work with as it looks now. So, I’ve accepted that as likely and have already moved on instead of dwelling on it. Thus, now the hope is for what happens afterward. Regardless of what will end up happening prior to ~Feb 12th, the potential from that point on remains as high as ever based on a combo of the extended models and analogs. Arguably, it is even higher for mid-Feb onward as snowless Dec/Jan analogs are hinting at. All it takes is one big snow and the season could easily be AN for most in the SE. Thus a mid-Feb pattern change could easily still be early enough to make it an AN snow winter in much of the SE. Yea I’m trying to stay as positive as I can but it’s tough given the past 6 years and all the hope El Niño and analog years brought. At best it seems we’ll be lucky to get a storm to track. That’s way off what most thought where the idea was the active STJ and suppression of SER would lead to multiple opportunities. I mean it’s going to be mid February and we haven’t even had a threat to watch inside 5 days. Gonna take a high end event to salvage this year at that point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 On 1/13/2024 at 12:02 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Models went through a bit of a pullback yesterday delaying the reset but overnight ensembles sort of went back to things looking fairly good again by 1/27-1/28 after 1/21-1/26 are fairly warm...the problem is the pattern is largely just a cold dry/warm wet look outside of New England...the NAO is positive and the western ridge is too far west on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS is better but the pattern still sort of screams that any big storm would cut N of the MA or SE US. Regardless, there won't be trees blooming in February this year across the SE US for the first time a good 7-8 years probably Ya still think so? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Ya still think so? Yeah, its all cumulative....in general if you have a near or below normal January which most places have had or will through 1/22, even if you go +5 for 15-20 days you won't see the degree of blooming you saw last year because January was so much milder than it has been in 2024 and blooming as well as fall color change on trees has a bit of an additive effect on what happened in the previous couple of months vs what is currently happening. Also due to lack of a SER this pattern while above normal won't produce temps like you saw in 2018-2019-2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yea I’m trying to stay as positive as I can but it’s tough given the past 6 years and all the hope El Niño and analog years brought. At best it seems we’ll be lucky to get a storm to track. That’s way off what most thought where the idea was the active STJ and suppression of SER would lead to multiple opportunities. I mean it’s going to be mid February and we haven’t even had a threat to watch inside 5 days. Gonna take a high end event to salvage this year at that point I'll be quite surprised if there isn't at least one storm to track mid-Feb on. I have a feeling that the mid Feb MJO and beyond position will be pretty crucial though it is just one factor even if often a major one. Consider that for the 2nd winter in a row that intense SE cold is occurring during strong "warm" phases thanks to high latitude blocking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 20 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: This forum has become ungovernable No Gods No Masters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: No Gods No Masters! Well, how many wait staff do you really need in this restaurant? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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