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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Writing is on the wall. All these posts for a 3 day cold snap then back to the drawing board till it “reloads”. Really not sure it can still snow here

Like I said a month ago, soon we’re going to look up and it’ll be March and the gig will be up

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10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Writing is on the wall. All these posts for a 3 day cold snap then back to the drawing board till it “reloads”. Really not sure it can still snow here

#ClimateChanged

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5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Writing is on the wall. All these posts for a 3 day cold snap then back to the drawing board till it “reloads”. Really not sure it can still snow here

I feel the same way but it will snow eventually.  It is becoming less common though.

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The first system is more of a threat up close to the VA border. No matter where the band of snow falls it's going to be relatively light and unlikely to accumulate outside the mountains. The second threat looks actually somewhat promising for the coast where they may end up with a surprise inch or two due to better moisture/dynamics.. unless we can trend towards a stronger system, the triad may be left high and dry on this one

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12 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Where did all the cold go in the extended range?

Models went through a bit of a pullback yesterday delaying the reset but overnight ensembles sort of went back to things looking fairly good again by 1/27-1/28 after 1/21-1/26 are fairly warm...the problem is the pattern is largely just a cold dry/warm wet look outside of New England...the NAO is positive and the western ridge is too far west on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS is better but the pattern still sort of screams that any big storm would cut N of the MA or SE US.  Regardless, there won't be trees blooming in February this year across the SE US for the first time a good 7-8 years probably

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-For RDU for the 31 El Niños that were moderate or stronger, keep in mind for snowfall that only 29% (2.2”) fell on avg through 1/20 with 5.4” 1/21+.

-Regarding the 15 (one every other winter) 6”+ storms, median date not til Feb 10-11

-More 6”+ events in Mar (4) than Feb (3) or Jan (3)

-Peak 10 day frequency for 6”+ 2/21-3/2 (4)

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In addition to the very cold upcoming 10 days, the EPS/GEFS implies another Arctic high may drop down near the end of Jan and provide cold in very early Feb. This image is from the new Weeklies for 1/29-2/5. Then it turns normal followed by more cold, especially 2/19-26. Also, every week of the latest 12 run averaged CFS is cold through late Feb with a hint of a Miller A on both in mid Feb. So, opportunities will likely be there after next week’s opportunities for wintry precip.

IMG_8903.thumb.webp.8805858cfb8c0d4bf2168be7765ed214.webp

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DT:  “

Any system that does develop is going to be  weak track well to the  south and  east of Cape Hatteras and will not become a significant East Coast winter storm in any way shape or form.

It is possible however that there  could light snow which could accumulate 1 to 2 inches in Northeast North Carolina Southeast Virginia  (away from the coast) and Central Virginia in and around Richmond up across the Middle Peninsula, the Northern Neck and the Delmarva.

But  even  THAT is iffy as this is such a weak and diffuse system that is quite possible that nothing will fall but flurries. Further to the North and the big cities from Washington DC up to Boston this is a big fat zero.”

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