olafminesaw Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 So far it looks to me like the GFS is caving to the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks to me like the GFS is drying out and moving towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Not fun but let’s see what the ensemble’s say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We suck at winter weather. It is what it is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Windshield wiper effect!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z GFS is definitely a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Despite the fun OP runs yesterday, the ensemble largely favored suppression the whole time. We've gotta have stronger earlier cyclogenesis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I agree on the idea that the 20th storm is the one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 32 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Not fun but let’s see what the ensemble’s say Dry as a bone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I guess I need to go back and look at the 12Z GFS again because I don't get the gnashing of teeth . But I'm old so I may have been looking a tic tok video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Those few tenths are cold chasing the moisture and we know how that usually plays out. Cue the Price is Right losing horn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 People were a bit too quick to discredit the King ehhh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: People were a bit too quick to discredit the King ehhh? Gonna be hilarious if it flips to what the GFS was showing previously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 People were a bit too quick to discredit the King ehhh?Its not over til its over. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If the Euro don't show much today, we may have to chalk this one up as a win for the Euro.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, BornAgain13 said: If the Euro don't show much today, we may have to chalk this one up as a win for the Euro. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Agreed. Todays 12z and tonight’s 0z had better show some movement away from what the GFS just showed or this one might be DOA. The trend is not your friend when those two models are against you 3 days out. Still time and today’s system plays a big part in the final solution. I have never jumped on this system tho. I still believe the following storm is the one to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Regarding the overall pattern: Latest GEFS MJO forecast is not what most would expect during a cold/wintry SE US period, strong in phases 4 and 5. Actually, the opposite wx tends to occur with this MJO. This illustrates well that it is just one factor and tells us only what often happens rather than anything even close to what always happens. Its moving too fast. We have had some discussions about this on twitter/forums recent days that historically waves that move fast in mod or greater ENSOs have reduced impact. Also, the GEFS badly overdid the strength, all winter so far EPS has been too weak/GEFS too strong but this time the EPS almost looks like its forecast 10 days back for late Jan may win...both have also been too slow moving the waves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its moving too fast. We have had some discussions about this on twitter/forums recent days that historically waves that move fast in mod or greater ENSOs have reduced impact. Also, the GEFS badly overdid the strength, all winter so far EPS has been too weak/GEFS too strong but this time the EPS almost looks like its forecast 10 days back for late Jan may win...both have also been too slow moving the waves The mjo will be aligned when we get out to 23rd or so with what should actually be happening in our region. From the 26th on though I'm curious how fast it moves to near the CoD or over to 7/8 space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The 12z Euro says no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If our winters were a person: Looks promising on the surface but devolves into the the worst possible series of events quickly 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I hear the sound of taps being played…gently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Joe Clark said: that would still be zero for Charlotte so boooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20th looks solid for CNC and mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z GFS has caved to the Euro. Dr. No is back. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS has caved to the Euro. Dr. No is back. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Yep. The 18z is no bueno for Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS has caved to the Euro. Dr. No is back. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Yes. Seen it a thousand times before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS has also warmed tremendously in LT. it screamed a multi week cold snap as recently as yesterday now looks like a 3 day cold period followed by a huge warmup. What a dumpster fire of a winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Perhaps next weekend? Our last shot unless things turn around for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now