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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just me or does this setup remind anyone of snowmaggedon that hit Atlanta in January 2014? Not quite as deep a cold push but lots of arctic air, Overruning precip, uncertainty on models. 

snku_acc-imp.us_ma (18).png

For reference 

accum_20140129.gif

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1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Hey, even the coastal areas get in on some love towards end of run

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_38.png

 

gfs_asnow24_seus_36.png

That would be the first wintry precip down here (looks like sleet in this run) in 6 years. Going 6+ years between wintry precip events this far SE, even if minor, is nothing unusual (and thus not something to bet on) though the last one was anything but minor.

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I know we are all talking about the snow and ice. But from what I recall Duke power saying something about not being to handle multiple days of really cold weather this year. Looks like from Texas to Georgia a few days of really cold air might have to buy some fire wood and batteries to prepare.

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7 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Just me or does this setup remind anyone of snowmaggedon that hit Atlanta in January 2014? Not quite as deep a cold push but lots of arctic air, Overruning precip, uncertainty on models. 

snku_acc-imp.us_ma (18).png

I'll take 2 inches and have it hang around for few days vs 7 to 8 and gone by the next day hope the trends continue!

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7 minutes ago, Joe Clark said:

Until the Euro gets on board with the Tuesday system I'm skeptical. I've seen plenty of times where the Euro lost a storm and was on its own and then watched as everything else caved...

While I don't think a cave from the rest of the models is likely, especially with the Euro ensembles being a bit more amped than the OP, my worry is if you average it out with the rest of guidance you end up with late development that crushed the NE, but leaves us with poor dynamics/warm surface temps. The counter to this fear though is, it's good to see the GFS generate decent moisture on the backside even after the low passes well to our NE. We want the LP to stay weak and ride the boundary.

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39 minutes ago, Joe Clark said:

Until the Euro gets on board with the Tuesday system I'm skeptical. I've seen plenty of times where the Euro lost a storm and was on its own and then watched as everything else caved...

Which run? Different solution every 6 hours!

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The GFS has been remarkably consistent around the evolution of the storm. It's wobbled back and forth on the southward extent of the PV lobe and the LP track and timing. All to be expected at this range. That being said, it does have Euro like solutions within its ensemble. 

I'd be prepared for at least one more big swing from the models after today's big cutter clears and resets the playing field. Even then, given the complex nature and so many moving pieces, this could end up coming down to the wire on having any real confidence in a solution.

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I really feel like if it’s going to happen in central NC, it will not be from Tuesdays storm, but the system on the 20th. Tuesday is cold chasing moisture at best for most of the piedmont and that just doesn’t end well here. The 20th intrigues me. Cold will be entrenched and I do not think any models have a handle on that energy yet 

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 Regarding the overall pattern: Latest GEFS MJO forecast is not what most would expect during a cold/wintry SE US period, strong in phases 4 and 5. Actually, the opposite wx tends to occur with this MJO. This illustrates well that it is just one factor and tells us only what often happens rather than anything even close to what always happens.

IMG_8896.png.c4982dd6a7702e9bdd8943ae8e5f4c34.png

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I really feel like if it’s going to happen in central NC, it will not be from Tuesdays storm, but the system on the 20th. Tuesday is cold chasing moisture at best for most of the piedmont and that just doesn’t end well here. The 20th intrigues me. Cold will be entrenched and I do not think any models have a handle on that energy yet 

Do you include the Triad in “central NC?” There are some people here who do not for some reason.

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