buckeyefan1 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 KHKY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just me or does this setup remind anyone of snowmaggedon that hit Atlanta in January 2014? Not quite as deep a cold push but lots of arctic air, Overruning precip, uncertainty on models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Just me or does this setup remind anyone of snowmaggedon that hit Atlanta in January 2014? Not quite as deep a cold push but lots of arctic air, Overruning precip, uncertainty on models. For reference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'm trying to recall the evolution on this one. Not coming to me presently. Interesting precip distribution. Did they lose it down in Raleighwood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hey, even the coastal areas get in on some love towards end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Copied from MA thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The cold is amazing on the 0z GFS, Points North and West of I85 stay near/below freezing from hour 102 until past hour 240! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: For reference That was a nice, clean snowstorm with 10 inches of snow in Hampton, VA. The forecast models were out to sea until like 3 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Hey, even the coastal areas get in on some love towards end of run That would be the first wintry precip down here (looks like sleet in this run) in 6 years. Going 6+ years between wintry precip events this far SE, even if minor, is nothing unusual (and thus not something to bet on) though the last one was anything but minor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z Euro was said , "What storm?" Watching the Mid Atlantic people lose their shit is worth it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, JoshM said: 0z Euro was said , "What storm?" Watching the Mid Atlantic people lose their shit is worth it! EURO went from huge I-95 Snowstorm to nothing in one run. That is unusual. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Weather.us has the Euro model runs with the rain/snow lines. FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I know we are all talking about the snow and ice. But from what I recall Duke power saying something about not being to handle multiple days of really cold weather this year. Looks like from Texas to Georgia a few days of really cold air might have to buy some fire wood and batteries to prepare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 hours ago, wncsnow said: Just me or does this setup remind anyone of snowmaggedon that hit Atlanta in January 2014? Not quite as deep a cold push but lots of arctic air, Overruning precip, uncertainty on models. I'll take 2 inches and have it hang around for few days vs 7 to 8 and gone by the next day hope the trends continue! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Until the Euro gets on board with the Tuesday system I'm skeptical. I've seen plenty of times where the Euro lost a storm and was on its own and then watched as everything else caved... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Joe Clark said: Until the Euro gets on board with the Tuesday system I'm skeptical. I've seen plenty of times where the Euro lost a storm and was on its own and then watched as everything else caved... While I don't think a cave from the rest of the models is likely, especially with the Euro ensembles being a bit more amped than the OP, my worry is if you average it out with the rest of guidance you end up with late development that crushed the NE, but leaves us with poor dynamics/warm surface temps. The counter to this fear though is, it's good to see the GFS generate decent moisture on the backside even after the low passes well to our NE. We want the LP to stay weak and ride the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 39 minutes ago, Joe Clark said: Until the Euro gets on board with the Tuesday system I'm skeptical. I've seen plenty of times where the Euro lost a storm and was on its own and then watched as everything else caved... Which run? Different solution every 6 hours! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Which run? Different solution every 6 hours! Exactly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The GFS has been remarkably consistent around the evolution of the storm. It's wobbled back and forth on the southward extent of the PV lobe and the LP track and timing. All to be expected at this range. That being said, it does have Euro like solutions within its ensemble. I'd be prepared for at least one more big swing from the models after today's big cutter clears and resets the playing field. Even then, given the complex nature and so many moving pieces, this could end up coming down to the wire on having any real confidence in a solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I really feel like if it’s going to happen in central NC, it will not be from Tuesdays storm, but the system on the 20th. Tuesday is cold chasing moisture at best for most of the piedmont and that just doesn’t end well here. The 20th intrigues me. Cold will be entrenched and I do not think any models have a handle on that energy yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Regarding the overall pattern: Latest GEFS MJO forecast is not what most would expect during a cold/wintry SE US period, strong in phases 4 and 5. Actually, the opposite wx tends to occur with this MJO. This illustrates well that it is just one factor and tells us only what often happens rather than anything even close to what always happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This setup screams December 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 32 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This setup screams December 2017. We wish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I really feel like if it’s going to happen in central NC, it will not be from Tuesdays storm, but the system on the 20th. Tuesday is cold chasing moisture at best for most of the piedmont and that just doesn’t end well here. The 20th intrigues me. Cold will be entrenched and I do not think any models have a handle on that energy yet Do you include the Triad in “central NC?” There are some people here who do not for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Do you include the Triad in “central NC?” There are some people here who do not for some reason. I do, and I don’t think Tuesday is the Triads storm either. Maybe some token flakes or ice there? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Lets see if this thing can start trending our way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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