Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[suzook]

The trends are not great, but we still have ALOT of time for things to change.

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

The trends are not great, but we still have ALOT of time for things to change.

And the models will always show it being at least two weeks out. LOL. Why do we continue to play this sick game?

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

The trends are not great, but we still have ALOT of time for things to change.

Right now they are changing... in the wrong direction. Much of NC went from a snow mean over 4 inches a few days ago to less than 2 inches. If we make it to January 16 it will be 3 years since the last measurable snow for a lot of us. I put the odds at 75% that we make it there with no snow here. 

[snowmaker13]

I found it kinda funny the Euro held the second low in the gulf and shot it up the coast when the warmth returned. what a troll run. Did trend SE with the first wave which is a nod to the GFS.

[snowmaker13]

GFS Ensembles

 

[suzook]

14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

And the models will always show it being at least two weeks out. LOL. Why do we continue to play this sick game?

We are sick....lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Tim Buckley WFMY: 

If you’re a snow lover in the Carolinas there’s certainly reason to be excited over the next few weeks. 

We will have more than a few chances at wintry weather. 

In baseball terms, we should have 3-4 at-bats. That doesn’t mean we’ll get a hit, but there are chances. #ncwx

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

GFS Ensembles

 

Panel 3 and we can start spreading pre emergent 

[olafminesaw]

.

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

I found it kinda funny the Euro held the second low in the gulf and shot it up the coast when the warmth returned. what a troll run. Did trend SE with the first wave which is a nod to the GFS.

I saw only one Euro ens member out of 50 (2%) (#44) holding a surface low back for 72 hours in the W Gulf like the op. and only a couple of others remotely resembling that scenario. So, the 12Z Euro op was clearly a major outlier and will likely change a lot in some way at 0Z.

[snowmaker13]

Wow

 

[Pilotwx]

This typical time range models lose winter storms. Lets see if by Thursday/Friday models come back to storm idea. Models don't look as promising as they did over the weekend. Long range cold and snow  warm and rain are always a flip of the coin when forecasting a pattern change 

[BooneWX]

17 minutes ago, Pilotwx said:

This typical time range models lose winter storms. Lets see if by Thursday/Friday models come back to storm idea. Models don't look as promising as they did over the weekend. Long range cold and snow  warm and rain are always a flip of the coin when forecasting a pattern change 

Im not as concerned about the storms or the energy and how it resolves, I’m mildly concerned about the trough axis and how our -NAO sets up. Now, I say mildly. Really the 12z suite is the first ensemble runs that give me pause but with it being ensembles and not operational runs, my interest is peaked. It’s probably just years of being burnt kicking in but I do think the atmosphere tends to get in a repetitive state and could trend towards a look that’s completely northern stream dominant with a trough axis too far east to slow down these waves (early this month). 
 

On the flip, the extreme cold has backed off today. It still looks well below average and that’s good. The pipe bursting cold shown over the last few days was never good. Nobody wants lows tracking through Cuba. 
 

edit: I should add that this doesn’t apply to all ensembles across the board. The GEFS shows exactly what we’d want and to lend it credit, it has been consistent. 

[snowmaker13]

18z nam coming in stringer with the low. 

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Tim Buckley WFMY: 

If you’re a snow lover in the Carolinas there’s certainly reason to be excited over the next few weeks. 

We will have more than a few chances at wintry weather. 

In baseball terms, we should have 3-4 at-bats. That doesn’t mean we’ll get a hit, but there are chances. #ncwx

This is the one reason I have hope. The last few years we've had like 3-5 day cold periods at best with only one shot at threading the needle and making a storm work. This one is going to be rather extended comparatively, so we should get more chances. Which is really all we can ask for I guess. I'm not overly concerned with the trough axis yet because if the Atlantic block is as stout as showing, logically the trough should retrograde some with time, and the models just likely aren't seeing that yet. Now if the block trends worse, all bets are off.

[SnowDawg]

Fwiw the 12z Euro AI still had the Miller A on the 10th. Albeit, light for most of the board outside of the deep south/coast with the track down around Orlando, but it's not like NW trends are uncommon either. 

[suzook]

GFS 18Z on its way.....Unfortunately still trending just a touch warmer...

[BooneWX]

No major changes through 108 hrs

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

GFS may be about to cave to the northern solution? Looks a tad higher and less cold air at 108 hours.

[BooneWX]

INCOMING!!!!!

[snowmaker13]

18z more amped. Going to be rain for NC if this trend keeps up. 

 

[BooneWX]

CAD special 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

GFS may be about to cave to the northern solution? Looks a tad higher and less cold air at 108 hours.

For sure, should still be wintry though. 12z was the outlier even for the GFS anyway 

[olafminesaw]

That axis of WAA snow is going to mean business wherever it sets up. 

[BooneWX]

Went north a hair at 18z but the high is also in a slightly better position 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS definitely a good run for my neck of the woods... Northern NC, Southern VA get smoked this run...

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Problem is the trend is not our friend here. Models are more amped and trending towards Virginia north receiving the goods. This may be over for us south of VA in the next run or two. There may be some sleet or freezing rain, but even that may be cut down some. I wouldn't say VA scores either, unless this northern trend stops.

[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Went north a hair at 18z but the high is also in a slightly better position 

I think would take the High being in a better position! Lots of cold air!

[ncjoaquin]

1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Problem is the trend is not our friend here. Models are more amped and trending towards Virginia north receiving the goods. This may be over for us south of VA in the next run or two. There may be some sleet or freezing rain, but even that may be cut down some. I wouldn't say VA scores either, unless this northern trend stops.

 

Northern Canada is probably not safe at this point. 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

4 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

 

Northern Canada is probably not safe at this point. 

Why stop there?