Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO is a giant hit for middle Virginia but is way way south from 6z

[GaWx]

For the first storm in addition to the snow that was already posted:

Significant ZR:

IP: mainly light but significant upstate SC (up to 2”):

[NorthHillsWx]

It may just be noise but all 3 models went south this run at 12z regarding the first storm 

[wncsnow]

Euro is close with that overrunning moisture. If it comes over WNC it could lay down a couple inches or snow 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is close with that overrunning moisture. If it comes over WNC it could lay down a couple inches or snow 

EURO is really close. It wants to smoke someone wherever that overrunning finger sets up. 

[GaWx]

 12Z GFS is still another model suggesting a wintry threat to the Gulf coast/deep SE after the initial storm. This is actually from an even later 3rd wave (Jan 11-12) as the 2nd wave dampens out with nothing wintry in the SE. To put this into perspective (the details fwiw since this is way out on days 11-12), these amounts from FL Panhandle to Charleston would be mainly 2-5 times these areas’ normal annual amounts, which are only 0.1-0.5” due to no measurable wintry in most years:

[wncsnow]

I hate to say it but it's looking like first storm then no storms for at least a week. If we don't score from the first storm we may find ourselves waiting until mid month. Every model is suppressed until then.  

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GFS is still another model suggesting a wintry threat to the Gulf coast/deep SE after the initial storm. This is actually from an even later 3rd wave (Jan 11-12) as the 2nd wave dampens out with nothing wintry in the SE. To put this into perspective (the details fwiw since this is way out on days 11-12), these amounts from FL Panhandle to Charleston would be mainly 2-5 times these areas’ normal annual amounts, which are only 0.1-0.5” due to no measurable wintry in most years:

This is the pattern those areas need to score. Actual suppression with true Arctic air

[franklin NCwx]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I hate to say it but it's looking like first storm then no storms for at least a week. If we don't score from the first storm we may find ourselves waiting until mid month. Every model is suppressed until then.  

No point in looking at storm opportunities next week or the week after 

[SnowDawg]

Euro cuts the energy off in the SW and it just sits there for 6 days before it ejects. I'll belive that when I see it.

[CentralNC]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Euro cuts the energy off in the SW and it just sits there for 6 days before it ejects. I'll belive that when I see it.

Seems like that is a Euro model bias we've seen in the past.

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS has less for most areas vs recent runs though still notable amounts N GA and much of Carolinas:

[WNC_Fort]

What you’re seeing on the models is exactly why ive remained skeptical/nervous for this period. I think it’s guaranteed that highest elevations score but us foothill folks could be looking at a scenario where if we miss on the 6th, the other storms skirt us to the south and we end up with the coastal plain getting snow and us left blanked.

[SnowDawg]

Our only shot at that first one is the 50/50 and block trending stronger and stronger as we approach. In my experience its usually a bit over done, I'd expect the GFS to move towards the Euro at least some. I agree with others that CMC could end up being middle ground between the two.

[GaWx]

 12Z Euro: The 2nd storm, while the upper level energy is held back and there’s a surface low well down in the W Gulf, gives ZR (as much as ~1” far S LA) 1/10-11 to part of the Gulf coast:

 

[SnowGoose69]

The ATL measurable snow drought of nothing over 0.5 for 7 years should end next month.

[BooneWX]

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BooneWX said:

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything. 

Yep. Not ideal

[NorthHillsWx]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GEFS has less for most areas vs recent runs though still notable amounts N GA and much of Carolinas:

This is a case where a stronger cutter would actually benefit us down the road setting up the 50/50 further west. I’m not sure these southern trends with the first system help us down the road. Might lead to an all or nothing situation with the first storm which we’d like to avoid at all costs

[eyewall]

The bad news is no ensemble support:

[SnowDawg]

GFS showed tons of potential with multiple shots at gulf lows following the 6th storm, but the Euro and it's ensemble was an ugly look no way around it. It kills the -EPO rather early in the run. Still think 9th-13th is our best window outside of the CAD on the 6th, can't buy the Euro suite wanting that energy to just get stuck for so long. Could definitely be potential beyond that, but too soon to say whether the pattern reloads or starts to break down mid month.

[eyewall]

It will happen when I am out of state between the 17th and 31st.

[BornAgain13]

I know the Euro still wasn't what we all wanted, but that shift south was noticeable... Let's see what 18z says...

[suzook]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

For the first storm in addition to the snow that was already posted:

Significant ZR:

IP: mainly light but significant upstate SC (up to 2”):

I would rather it be 70, and sunny than that nightmare.

[suzook]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ATL measurable snow drought of nothing over 0.5 for 7 years should end next month.

Based on models??? That's a bad bet. Not saying it wont happen, but I will believe it when i see it.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro mean snow: not as much as recent runs for most areas but still enough to end ATL 0.5”+ snow drought of prior 6 winters:

[strongwxnc]

Just now, GaWx said:

12Z Euro mean snow: not as much as recent runs for most areas

 

Still prints all the way down to the gulf. 

[NorthHillsWx]

RDU will pick up 0.10” 1 hour before we otherwise would break the record and that will be it for the year. Don’t get to claim the record and don’t get enough to cover the mulch. Bank on it. 

[EarlGrey]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro mean snow: not as much as recent runs for most areas but still enough to end ATL 0.5”+ snow drought of prior 6 winters:

If we could lock that in right now I would take that and be happy with it. 

[wncsnow]

Long range Euro ENS is ugly for snowlovers. Like others have said, the trough looks like early December too far NE.