Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[olafminesaw]

Much better placement of the high so far on the GFS. Let's see if it still manages to escape to the north

[wncsnow]

Only hundreds of miles south of the Euro. No biggie. 

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS with a Big Snow for most of NC and into VA!!

[BornAgain13]

Would love for the GFS To be right but not gonna get to excited unless Euro gets on board. Need that HP on the Euro to press down like the Gfs

[wncsnow]

We are only talking 6 days out and there's huge model disagreement. 

[BooneWX]

The 12z GFS is weather porn but as of right now it’s on its own island so I’m struggling to believe it. I still think the most likely solution is a cutter with a brief CAD event but of course I’d love to be wrong. 

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

Looks like the Canadian will be ice for CAD areas. 

[BornAgain13]

Yeah unfortunately the GFS is on its own right now. Would love for it to be accurate but it hasn't been scoring well lately ...

[SnowDawg]

Gonna be interesting to see which way this trends. Euro is faster and amped up, GFS is weaker and is really feeling the confluence between the 50/50 and the block. A true cutter is going to be tough if the 50/50 and block is in place, it's just going to shunt it due east everytime it wants to cut. I'm not willing to speculate, the differences are too miniscule, just gonna have to wait and see.

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC is definitely an ICE storm for NC and southern VA

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z CMC is definitely an ICE storm for NC and southern VA

Yea I worry this is the most likely solution and middle ground between the models. There is a lot of vegetation hanging on by a thread in WNC that didn’t go down completely during Helene. An ice storm would be much more impactful than normal for the region.

[wncsnow]

Looks like suppression city for the next wave. Gulf Coast getting some light wintry precip. 

[BooneWX]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like suppression city for the next wave. Gulf Coast getting some light wintry precip. 

That’s fine for now

[SnowDawg]

That 10th time frame is going to take a while to sort out. There's a crazy amount of energy flying around there, not to mention that the outcome on the 6th likely has an impact also. High risk/high reward setup though.

[wncsnow]

The UK is even further north for the first wave. 

[NorthHillsWx]

If we got the 6th system I would be rooting hard for the extreme southern folks and coastal Carolina’s to cash in on the 10th system as my snowpack would be locked in lol

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The UK is even further north for the first wave. 

Yeah, the worst scenario. Chicago to Detroit Blizzard.

[BooneWX]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, the worst scenario. Chicago to Detroit Blizzard.

That high over the Bahamas would be a major stick in the mud even with a good track 

[eyewall]

We will have to see what the ensembles say but:

[Wow]

Nope. Just eye candy.  Still got a ways to go  

[NorthHillsWx]

I still like the idea of a CAD system on the 6th. I think something between the EURO and GFS. Don’t think this is a snowstorm unfortunately unless it tracks way south which seems to be an outlier idea at the moment but given the antecedent airmass and HP over NE I doubt the system is all rain 

[NorthHillsWx]

The system on the 6th is absolutely critical to whatever comes next bc it becomes our 50/50 low. Until the 6th storm is ironed out it’s going to be impossible to figure out the next one. This is a highly volatile period for models with the second storm being totally dependent on the evolution of the first, so that follow up system just being present is all we can ask for. I’d say this whether it was showing a HECS or a miss to the south

[BornAgain13]

12z GEFS is improved from 6z in the northern parts of this forum.

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Thr system on the 6th is absolutely critical to whatever comes next bc it becomes our 50/50 low. Until the 6th storm is ironed out it’s going to be impossible to figure out the next one. This is a highly volatile period for models with the second storm being totally dependent on the evolution of the first, so that follow up system just being present is all we can ask for. I’d say this whether it was showing a HECS or a miss to the south

This. I sort of think it’s a win either way. I never want to pass up a winter weather opportunity but if we end up just risking sleet and freezing rain, I’ll happily pass because it sets the stage all the better for everyone on waves 2 and 3. 

[brianc33710]

One model now even has a changeover to snow on Monday across N AL due to the incoming cold. ABC 3340 showed that at 1115 am.

[BooneWX]

Also, this is where the experts stand on the Jan 6th storm

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro looks like it’s coming in much further south this run with the first system 

[PackGrad05]

GEFS has about a 25% chance of 1" for RDU with that first system.

[brianc33710]

4 hours ago, mclean02 said:

Nice to see we are still in the game plus some extended cold air ! Not sure why I am excited just to walk outside seeing my breath just that alone is nice! 

This has accumulated snow all the way down to Tampa Bay!