Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[WiseWeather]

6z… its a beaut. Wish it would dig a little bit more west but i like where we are at this point.


.

[BornAgain13]

6z is a beaut... Definitely wish we had the euro on our side and not the GFS Though ... But still plenty of time to track. 

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z is a beaut... Definitely wish we had the euro on our side and not the GFS Though ... But still plenty of time to track. 

For the 1/6 system or the one after?

[WiseWeather]

For the 1/6 system or the one after?

If i said both would you believe me?


.

[NorthHillsWx]

1/6 is a classic CAD look. If that system stays weaker west of apps, I don’t think that wedge will be scoured out and we wind up with a GFS/CMC solution. This is an ice storm look. Even the GFS is showing a strong wedge and it always underestimates their strength at range 

[olafminesaw]

Nice to see the same general look for the 1/10 storm from both the Euro and GFS. Of course the Euro has a great lakes low to keep it from being a much bigger storm

[suzook]

Annoying how social media posts snow maps, like its set in stone. 7 to 10 days out, and the social media idiots are posting this nonsense.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Annoying how social media posts snow maps, like its set in stone. 7 to 10 days out, and the social media idiots are posting this nonsense.

This is the worst I’ve ever seen. It gets worse every year 

[WiseWeather]

This is the worst I’ve ever seen. It gets worse every year 

Especially now with tik tok everyone thinks that these models translate into actual weather. If i had all the snow that i was “supposed” to get every year then we wouldn’t be 1000+ days in a snow drought.


.

[BooneWX]

The cad showing up on the 6z gfs is very stout. HKY doesn’t get above 28 for the duration of the event. Does anybody have the sleet map by chance? I saw little Frz rain so I figured that is a sleet fest.

[mclean02]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z GEFS speaks for itself:

 

Nice to see we are still in the game plus some extended cold air ! Not sure why I am excited just to walk outside seeing my breath just that alone is nice! 

[WiseWeather]

The cad showing up on the 6z gfs is very stout. HKY doesn’t get above 28 for the duration of the event. Does anybody have the sleet map by chance? I saw little Frz rain so I figured that is a sleet fest.

Looked like it went from sleeting… to heavy snow just by the modeling.


.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Support has dropped from the EPS and Euro. CMC is showing a rain storm and then not much. Seems like the GFS is on an island. The 06z GFS run basically moved the first storm into Virginia. The second storm is there but cold seems to start retreating right when it hits, so the third storm behind it likely won't have enough cold. However, it is all out into lala land at that point.

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro is historically not great at picking up CAD setups at range. It being the outlier is not surprising. I’m beginnning to focus on 1/6 as a legit wintry threat. The H5 setup is there and it is a very cold/dry air mass that moves in the days before. At a minimum this should result in a large area of nuisance ice 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Support has dropped from the EPS and Euro. CMC is showing a rain storm and then not much. Seems like the GFS is on an island. The 06z GFS run basically moved the first storm into Virginia. The second storm is there but cold seems to start retreating right when it hits, so the third storm behind it likely won't have enough cold. However, it is all out into lala land at that point.

I have no idea what you’re looking at. Verbatim the Canadian is a major ice storm and regardless with CAD events you look for the setup before precip maps. If the setup is there models will hone in on the wedge as we get closer. The setup is there

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I have no idea what you’re looking at. Verbatim the Canadian is a major ice storm and regardless with CAD events you look for the setup before precip maps. If the setup is there models will hone in on the wedge as we get closer. The setup is there

Set up is there but warmer. Only model showing a major storm is the GFS. Ensembles for GFS and CMC look fine. ECMWF is lacking and so is the ensembles. CMC is a storm for Virginia. 

[EarlGrey]

Are there any maps that show max rate of snowing per hour? I’d like to see if there’s a possibility of thunder snow somewhere and the best place to go to see it. 

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

Are there any maps that show max rate of snowing per hour? I’d like to see if there’s a possibility of thunder snow somewhere and the best place to go to see it. 

Are you trolling?

[CentralNC]

7 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

Are there any maps that show max rate of snowing per hour? I’d like to see if there’s a possibility of thunder snow somewhere and the best place to go to see it. 

Your best bet is to head for Lake effect areas of western NY if you want to see intense snowfall and thunder.

[EarlGrey]

14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Are you trolling?

No not at all, sorry if you thought so.

[eyewall]

I am not saying it is anywhere near the same scenario but the big on in January 2000 was preceded by a couple of ice events if I remember correctly.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not saying it is anywhere near the same scenario but the big on in January 2000 was preceded by a couple of ice events if I remember correctly.

There was a small snow the week before and then an ice event after if my memory serves me. I remember the ice with snow still on the ground 

[olafminesaw]

Often these front end thump storms over-perform with a few hours of heavy snow to start as warm air advection creates instability. Something to watch if the storm is far enough south and doesn't get sheared.

[StantonParkHoya]

I’ve rarely seen us cash in on the first threat. Usually that’s our 50/50 low setting up.

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Set up is there but warmer. Only model showing a major storm is the GFS. Ensembles for GFS and CMC look fine. ECMWF is lacking and so is the ensembles. CMC is a storm for Virginia. 

Are you and @wncsnow related? I'm just picking 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Are you and @wncsnow related? I'm just picking 

We are distant relatives.

[Lowershoresadness]

1 hour ago, EarlGrey said:

No not at all, sorry if you thought so.

Capt Picard?

[BornAgain13]

12z runs starting to come... First up , 12z ICON with a cold rain for most. Significant Snow in Central and Northern VA.

[wncsnow]

DC looks like the sweet spot for storm 1. I am not expecting more than a cold rain for most of NC for that one. 

[wncsnow]

GFS is consistent that the storm is well south leading to snow/sleet/ZR threat