Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[BooneWX]

Before anyone jumps ship - the 18z GFS has features a thousand miles apart (literally) from the 12z run. 

[kvegas-wx]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Before anyone jumps ship - the 18z GFS has features a thousand miles apart (literally) from the 12z run. 

A lot of people down here in the water already.  Just let us go man.  

[BornAgain13]

If anyone is looking for food news, the 18z GEFS is improved from 12z, fairly significantly... Especially for some in NC and VA

[SnowDawg]

The 6th storm came south that run, almost had a Miller B look to it instead of a pure cutter. As depicted it's showing sleet/zr in cad region but based on these 850 temps I actually think WNC, NE GA, and parts of the upstate would probably be snow/sleet. Surface temps are mid-upper 20s. Definitely need to watch the trends on this one.

[SnowDawg]

Also, the big Miller A behind it was very close to a triple phase.

[NorthHillsWx]

18z was a better run. Not there yet but better

[StantonParkHoya]

Coastal NC keeps finding a way every run…

[olafminesaw]

18z vs 12z

[BooneWX]

Solid improvements at 18z across the board. -NAO doing some dirty work for us.

[olafminesaw]

More at the end of the run. I think we get at least one more shot after the 10th

[WNC_Fort]

Much improved 18z run. Let’s keep the positive momentum during 0z.

[EarlGrey]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

More at the end of the run. I think we get at least one more shot after the 10th

Shoot id be happy with those numbers even if it’s just one storm.

[EarlGrey]

Is there any concern with how warm it’s been and if the ground will too warm for when it does snow? Just thinking of if it’ll stick if the ground has been too warm since it takes a while to cool off. 

[suzook]

1 hour ago, EarlGrey said:

Is there any concern with how warm it’s been and if the ground will too warm for when it does snow? Just thinking of if it’ll stick if the ground has been too warm since it takes a while to cool off. 

The warm ground will affect snow totals, but if it snows hard enough, it won't matter too much.

[StantonParkHoya]

24 minutes ago, suzook said:

The warm ground will affect snow totals, but if it snows hard enough, it won't matter too much.

Both — please stop. This has been debunked many many times. Not to mention we will have multiple days in the 40s and nights below freezing before any chances.

[olafminesaw]

Euro AI is really nice for storm #2

[SnowDawg]

Yep, soil temps affecting snow is a complete myth as long as we aren't talking very light snow. These are the conclusions from a NWS study on it when they found forecasters with this bias were partly responsible for underestimating snow forecasts. Note in the second conclusion the highest was a soil temp of over 54 degrees and still didn't inhibit accumulations. Most of us are well below that.

[BooneWX]

Euro AI has the wave dropping in stronger and at a lower latitude. 

also. This blocking. Holllly smokes.

[PackGrad05]

Current soil temps across Wake County only range from 50-53..  Not that warm.

Plus, today is the warmest it'll be by far for the next 2 weeks...   Soil temps won't be an issue...  and neither will roads after a few days.

[BlueRidge18]

Euro AI has the wave dropping in stronger and at a lower latitude. 
also. This blocking. Holllly smokes.

Yeah delayed first wave until hour 198 and it’s a winter storm for many! The changes aren’t done yet but I like the way the euro ai handled it on 18z run. Almost hit big dog later in run as well


.

[BooneWX]

Icon would’ve been interesting to see past 180 hrs. Another drop in the bucket of solid trends. 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

We really need the -NAO to drop to -2 or lower for it to dominate the storm track. Right now it's progged to drop to -1.75 or so before slowly rising in the middle of January.

 

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

This is more concerning to me. The PNA is only between 0 and +1. I would much rather see it +2. 

 I like your hopes and would love to see that amazing combo. But these hopes are very unrealistic due to the extreme rarity of a +2 PNA in met. winter.

 Since 1950, there have been only 3 winter days with a +2 PNA: 2/28-29/1968 and 2/28/1983! That’s it! The NAO on those 3 days was +0.2, +0.4, and -0.5.

 There have been many more -2 NAO winter days (45) but the last one was 12/1/2010! Sub -2 NAO days almost all occurred in 2009-10 as well as the 1970s/1960s. The PNA for these -2 NAO days was +1 or lower on all but two days with a large majority neutral or -PNA.    
  
 The two days that came very close to the NAO -2/PNA +2 combo were 12/2-3/1963. The NAO on 12/2/1963 was -2.1 while the PNA was +1.7. They were -2.0 and +1.8 on 12/3/1963. So, these were very close calls. But again that’s the best that’s occurred.

 My point is that despite the two day close call, we’ve not had the -2/+2 combo even once in 74 winters. Thus, I’d be very satisfied with the predicted  ~-1.75/+1. That along with a progged sub -3 AO, a moderate -EPO, and a favorable (weak left side) MJO would itself be at most a once per decade(s) occurrence in January! I don’t think many folks realize the rarity of what’s about to occur. Even I didn’t realize it til I did the research by looking at the historical data that’s out there.

 

 

 

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 I like your hopes and would love to see that amazing combo. But these hopes are very unrealistic due to the extreme rarity of a +2 PNA in met. winter.

 Since 1950, there have been only 3 winter days with a +2 PNA: 2/28-29/1968 and 2/28/1983! That’s it! The NAO on those 3 days was +0.2, +0.4, and -0.5.

 There have been many more -2 NAO winter days (45) but the last one was 12/1/2010! Sub -2 NAO days almost all occurred in 2009-10 as well as the 1970s/1960s. The PNA for these -2 NAO days was +1 or lower on all but two days with a large majority neutral or -PNA.    
  
 The two days that came very close to the NAO -2/PNA +2 combo were 12/2-3/1963. The NAO on 12/2/1963 was -2.1 while the PNA was +1.7. They were -2.0 and +1.8 on 12/3/1963. So, these were very close calls. But again that’s the best that’s occurred.

 My point is that despite the two day close call, we’ve not had the -2/+2 combo even once in 74 winters. Thus, I’d be very satisfied with the predicted  ~-1.75/+1. That along with a progged sub -3 AO, a moderate -EPO, and a favorable (weak left side) MJO would itself be at most a once per decade(s) occurrence in January!

 

 

 

And that 2009/10 winter set the standard for modern east coast winters with that-NAO. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And that 2009/10 winter set the standard for modern east coast winters with that-NAO. 

 Indeed 2009-10’s -NAO was amazing and one of my favorite winters! Honorable mentions go to 1963-4, 1962-3, and 1968-9.

[wncsnow]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Indeed 2009-10’s -NAO was amazing and one of my favorite winters! Honorable mentions go to 1963-4, 1962-3, and 1968-9.

1969 had one of the biggest snowstorms on record here in the foothills 

[Thrasher Fan]

Out to 90 on the 0z and looks similar to 18z. Maybe a hair colder, similar moisture.

[wncsnow]

Looks like the GFS will come in further south this run

[BornAgain13]

Stronger HP to the North so far...

[wncsnow]

This might be a good run for the first wave unless it shears out 

[Thrasher Fan]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Stronger HP to the North so far...

bit further west too ejecting out Canada