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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This was probably the coldest GFS run since January 2018. Just keeps reinforcing cold shots the entire time after the 17th

Yep, verbatim it's winter weather potential all the way to the end of the run.

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I still think this is our best shot to date for at least an inch of snow for much of NC. The EPS has increased slightly each run the past few days. 

Yep, always a good sign when the Mid-Atlantic forum is starting to get nervous about suppression 

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NWS Raleigh AFD:
 

Given precipitation type, it is still too early to determine
details, but GFS forecast soundings show potential for at least a
period of snow, mainly in the north and west. 12z ECMWF and GFS
ensembles have trended more wintry, with a majority now depicting
measurable snow in the Piedmont.
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Models continue to indicate a cold pattern despite the MJO moving through strong phases 4 & 5. Similar to Christmas of 2022. MJO overruled by other factors. MJO only determines what often happens, which is far from what always happens.

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Yeah generally the same look overall, pv lobe just a bit further north. Too small of changes to nitpick over at this range. Interesting trend of that HP to the northeast trying to hang out a bit longer. Could help slow our system down, and maybe even deliver a bit of CAD to help with temps.

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