BooneWX Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Big improvements on the next wave. Almost there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Big improvements on the next wave. Almost there. Help me see! haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 26 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS may be about to cave to the northern solution? Looks a tad higher and less cold air at 108 hours. Yes, for us on the southern edge, it's definitely looking slightly warmer. When I say slightly, it's miniscule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, snowmaker13 said: Help me see! haha Pull up the 500 mb vort map and compare to 12z. The wave kicks east but just missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: Help me see! haha Depends on where you live. I'm starting to think Atlanta is starting to drop out of the game..still time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 All I want is the storm to generally stay in each run with a reasonable shot. It is certainly going to vary from run to run and this far out that is splitting hairs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Pull up the 500 mb vort map and compare to 12z. The wave kicks east but just missed the phase. I see what you mean. It pulled it off last min. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1-3 inches for Tallahassee on this run -- it's a lock! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 8 minutes ago, beanskip said: 1-3 inches for Tallahassee on this run -- it's a lock! Lol. That's actually funny. The snow that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Although very slightly more amped and north early, it's actually weakening and shearing out faster on approach as the block presses on it. There's not really much room for a big northern trend. I think the Euro is probably fairly close to the northern edge of the forecast envelope as long as the block and 50/50 are locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Fwiw the 12z Euro AI still had the Miller A on the 10th. Albeit, light for most of the board outside of the deep south/coast with the track down around Orlando, but it's not like NW trends are uncommon either. Based on thicknesses (546 is usually snow line in SE), 850 mb temp anoms, and qpf (2m are too warm), that’s actually likely a major (3-7”) snowstorm on the 12Z Euro AI with the NW extent of the 3” Columbus to Macon to Augusta to Fayetteville to Greenville, NC, with ~5-7” from NC coast down to ~Charleston. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Still think a lot of the zr depicted is at worst sleet. During the bulk of the precip warm nose looks to be fairly thin and high up around 725-750 mbar. Below that it is solidly isothermal all the way to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Main thing I’ve noticed is how bad most on this board are at reading synoptic set ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Based on the 18z euro I'd say timing is just as big a factor as North/South. The waves aren't tracking all that different but the faster euro has more room to amplify, less time for the CAD to build in, and precip starts during the warmest part of the day instead of overnight/early morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Good news on the 18z Euro. It did trend south from 0z. Lines up fairly close to the 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Good news on the 18z Euro. It did trend south from 0z. Lines up fairly close to the 18z GFS A few more south ticks and NC is in Business! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Wednesday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:05 AM 38 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Main thing I’ve noticed is how bad most on this board are at reading synoptic set ups Most are here to learn so sharing your expertise is always welcomed. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Wednesday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:06 AM 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Good news on the 18z Euro. It did trend south from 0z. Lines up fairly close to the 18z GFS Only 175 mile difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Wednesday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:08 AM Should have a better consensus on 0z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted Wednesday at 12:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:18 AM 5 hours ago, lilj4425 said: And the models will always show it being at least two weeks out. LOL. Why do we continue to play this sick game? Hey look who's back .... the blue turd...... Let's Go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted Wednesday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:23 AM Pretty legit ass thunderstorm here in Gibsonville. I’m taking this as a good omen!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:26 AM 2 minutes ago, btownheel said: Pretty legit ass thunderstorm here in Gibsonville. I’m taking this as a good omen! . Ass thunderstorms are never good. Taco Bell usually ups the odds of those in my house. 2 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Wednesday at 12:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:39 AM 15 minutes ago, btownheel said: Pretty legit ass thunderstorm here in Gibsonville. I’m taking this as a good omen! . Warned severe. lol. Happy New Year. Now to wait and see if the 10 day rule will apply. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 12:40 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:40 AM 48 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Good news on the 18z Euro. It did trend south from 0z. Lines up fairly close to the 18z GFS On the one hand -NAO should continue to kick south. On the other hand, the last minute North trend is real. I think this map represents kinda the expected outcome with lots of uncertainty north or south. Of course plenty of opportunity for sleet or ZR south of that snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:44 AM I know the cold had backed off a little on some runs but the GFS is back to something nearly as impressive 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted Wednesday at 12:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:56 AM Warned severe. lol. Happy New Year. Now to wait and see if the 10 day rule will apply.Caught a few minutes of dime sized hail. Does this count as frozen precip and pop the streak???. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Wednesday at 12:57 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:57 AM Just now, btownheel said: Caught a few minutes of dime sized hail. Does this count as frozen precip and pop the streak??? . Oh hell no. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 01:43 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:43 AM 18Z Euro ens mean: 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Wednesday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:54 AM I almost think you want the first system to cut west/north if you want the 10/11 system to pop as it would set up the baroclinic zone closer to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Wednesday at 01:55 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:55 AM 3 run trend from the Euro. It's coming south for now at least. If we could just get slower and weaker too, we'd be in business. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now