Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[BooneWX]

The euro just really strings out the energy in the Baja 

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

Euro's cooking out to 216. Moisture spreading over texas

[GaWx]

12Z Euro fwiw since it will keep changing (being an operational this far out) is consistent with a good number of ensemble members showing a weak Miller A Gulf low ~1/10-11: this produces light ZR along/near the Gulf coast

 

@beanskip

[olafminesaw]

Multiple waves in the Gulf but they all get squashed. I would give it 24 hours before too much concern.

[wncsnow]

Texas becomes a glacier according to 12z euro. 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Multiple waves in the Gulf but they all get squashed. I would give it 24 hours before too much concern.

I bet it will be 5-6+ days before the details for the period around 1/10-12 are getting semi-stable on the operational models. Five days from now would still be near a week out.

[SnowDawg]

Right now it all comes down to that southern energy not getting stuck out west. We need it to eject at the right time to not get squashed. Again, hopefully the H5 look is right cause it should reload a few times giving us more chances even if that one fails.

[BooneWX]

The differences over these past 3 model cycles are much more subtle than the surface depictions would lead you to believe. Small nuances in where individual pieces of energy come ashore out west, drop in, link up, etc etc. But what’s been absolutely consistent through the shifts:

 

a. Significant and prolonged cold weather is coming and the upper air charts have made little to no changes 

b. Plenty of energy 

I still think something shakes out in our favor, I really do. I’ve also got a feeling we’re entering a territory where we could get into the 3-4 day window before we start to reel one in. 
 

On the 6th: likely a cutter. Anything more would be gravy but I’m not sure it’s a bad thing since it would take a heavy turnaround to make it a fun storm for all. If it cuts, it lays down a nice blanket of snow just to our north. The models have moderated slightly today because less snow further north = modified air. Our future pieces of energy only stand to benefit from that first low cutting. 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS snow mean: yes, less snow most well inland areas (don’t shoot the messenger; besides there’s still a good amount there and this is still way out in changeable land) but actually more Gulf coast/FL Panhandle and further east. Looking back at what I’ve saved, this has the most snow along the Gulf coast to some of the deep SE of any run yet with these amounts amounting to 2-3 years worth of normal:

@beanskip

@Awesomesauce81

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS snow mean: yes, less snow most well inland areas (don’t shoot the messenger and this is still way out in changeable land) but actually more Gulf coast/FL Panhandle and further east. Looking back at what I’ve saved, this has the most snow along the Gulf coast to some of the deep SE of any run yet

@beanskip

@Awesomesauce81

And it’s only two weeks out like always. Continuing to kick the can down the road. 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

And it’s only two weeks out like always. Continuing to kick the can down the road. 

Imho not yet can kicking for Jan 9-12, which has been showing with the best Gulf Miller A potential for several days

[BornAgain13]

A lot of doom and gloom posts on here today. The signal is still there folks. The ensembles still look decent to. It won't take much to windshield wiper this back in everyone's favor. 

[PackGrad05]

EPS 1" probabilities for RDU dropped for the 3rd straight run...  down to less than 50% now over next 14 days.

[Jmoon]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Texas becomes a glacier according to 12z euro. 

Again and Again.

[wncsnow]

I don't think its time to give up hope but its undeniable that the trends have been very poor the past 24-36 hours. The means on all the globals have decreased dramatically. The QPF on the means have decreased dramatically. 

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't think its time to give up hope but its undeniable that the trends have been very poor the past 24-36 hours. The means on all the globals have decreased dramatically. The QPF on the means have decreased dramatically. 

And temps have come WAY up

[lilj4425]

53 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

A lot of doom and gloom posts on here today. The signal is still there folks. The ensembles still look decent to. It won't take much to windshield wiper this back in everyone's favor. 

Well, when you don’t see any snow at your house going on three straight years what do you honestly expect? 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[mclean02]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Texas becomes a glacier according to 12z euro. 

I hope this isn't the thing that seems to happen any time a NC,SC,GA are looking at snow and cold then it shifts west to give Dallas/Nashville/Austin/Memphis 2 weeks of snow and ice and the apps stop the piedmont from seeing anything but ZR for few hours and 33.1 degrees lol. Sorry just my trauma from last few winters cold blast that look good then shift way west lol 

[WNC_Fort]

Yea, the last few years, we’ve had multiple storms show initially as favorable for the Carolina’s just to hit Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, etc. 

i personally can’t have hope on any storm until we’re within 48 hours. The last 3 years have been that miserable. Also, some aren’t understanding the point we’ve been making about temps moderating. YES, it will still be cold. But not record breaking like the models were showing just 2 days ago. 
 

Sure, let’s be hopeful AND realistic. And it’s easier for some to be hopeful who have gotten at least a trace the last few years compared to us who haven’t seen it without traveling to it. 

[SnowDawg]

The only thing that's changed at all thus far is the handling of the individual pieces of energy, which we know are still at a timeframe that they are definitely still wrong and will continue to change, good or bad. Facts are the advertised H5 pattern is the best we've seen since even before this snow drought started, and it looks to be a rather extended one. I hated today's trends too, but the changes were very minimal overall just very different sensible weather. The timing hasn't changed, and no cans have been kicked. 

I don't agree that past disappointment is a valid reason to just throw out all reasonable analysis, and act like this isn't a fantastic pattern. If you've got to, then there's other threads for that I guess. Do all great patterns produce? No, but many do. Belive me if we get to the last week of January and this has all went to crap I'll have my fair share of venting and frustration to post as well and I'll see you guys there. But for now I'm gonna try and enjoy this hobby, without being miserable.

[SnowDawg]

[suzook]

You can't deny the "warming" trend. Sure, it's gonna be cold, but the models have consistently backed down a bit on how extreme it was supposed to be. To be honest, I wasn't buying how cold it would be. 

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

You can't deny the "warming" trend. Sure, it's gonna be cold, but the models have consistently backed down a bit on how extreme it was supposed to be. To be honest, I wasn't buying how cold it would be. 

This is a good thing.

[suzook]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is a good thing.

Absolutely 

[jburns]

Let me try and bring some sanity to the next 2 weeks.  I will use the Euro but the results will be the same with all the other models.

SE WINTER MODEL INTERPRETATION 

 BLIZZARD SHOWN ON MODEL             RESULT

1. Hour 240                                        33º Rain
2. Hour 216                                         33º Rain
3. Hour 192.                                        33º Rain
4. Hour 168.                                        33º Rain
5. Hour 144.                                        33º Rain
6. Hour 120.                                        33º Rain
7. Hour 96.                                         33º Rain
8. Hour 72.                                         33º Rain
9. Hour 48.                                         33º Rain
10. Hour 24.                                         33º Rain
11. Actual Event.                                 33º Rain

So, relax enjoy the ride and get ready to bend over at the end.

[tarheelwx]

Pulling this from my long term memory as we have t had this situation in quite a while.  But often when there’s a strong negative NAO, we’ll see the models correct the storm track further south for quite a few runs in succession.  Hopefully that will be the case for the early week storm.  
TW

[wncsnow]

21 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Pulling this from my long term memory as we have t had this situation in quite a while.  But often when there’s a strong negative NAO, we’ll see the models correct the storm track further south for quite a few runs in succession.  Hopefully that will be the case for the early week storm.  
TW

We really need the -NAO to drop to -2 or lower for it to dominate the storm track. Right now it's progged to drop to -1.75 or so before slowly rising in the middle of January.

[wncsnow]

This is more concerning to me. The PNA is only between 0 and +1. I would much rather see it +2.