Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is going to look a little different this run for the first storm 

Much further south but also, don't have HP in a good place and big beefy system is going to cut big time regardless 

[wncsnow]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Much further south but also, don't have HP in a good place and big beefy system is going to cut big time regardless 

The air is colder and drier in front of the system and screams ice potential for CAD areas 

[wncsnow]

It shows quite a bit of sleet and ZR in WNC and parts of NE GA and the upstate. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The air is colder and drier in front of the system and screams ice potential for CAD areas 

A Miller B is absolutely on the table and IF the first storm is wintry, ice is the likelihood given the setup 

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS at 192 (fwiw since it is 8 days out on the GFS op) is setting up for not as strong a push of cold air southward soon afterward compared to most of the recent runs. Those who don’t want it too cold in the SE should like this run…again fwiw.

[BooneWX]

https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1873732680816177436?s=46
 

fwiw

[GaWx]

 12Z GFS not even that cold 0Z Jan 9th in SE! I’m throwing it out as a warm outlier at this point, especially since it is the GFS out at 228:

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GFS op is near worthless crapola imo. Let’s see what the 12Z GEFS has.

[NorthHillsWx]

And the walls start closing in…

[SnowDawg]

Another run with our southern piece of energy getting cutoff and left behind out west. This is our most likely path to failure on the Miller A potential. Without getting even a partial phase, it'll be too northern stream dominant. That's why it's important that the H5 look come to fruition, cause we should get more than one shot at it.

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GFS not even that cold 0Z Jan 9th in SE! I’m throwing it out as a warm outlier at this point, especially since it is the GFS out at 228:

Yeah, if it's latest depictions were to come to fruition...what a huge letdown !!!

[wncsnow]

We do get a winter storm on the 13th ion the GFS

[wncsnow]

One thing I have noticed on multiple models is our southern stream energy being sheared out as it approached us. The UK looked like a big hit on the first wave but shears out the energy. Other models are doing this as well. 

[SnowDawg]

Definitely need to watch how that CAD trends on the 6th system. As we know global models at this range often underestimate it and still it had most of the prime CAD region in the mid to upper 20's. Could be a nasty sleet/zr setup.

[GaWx]

 As usually occurs, the warmer change on the GEFS mean is much more subtle than that on the highly unreliable GFS operational out at day 9:

GEFS 2m anomalies: only slightly less cold than recent runs and still quite cold overall in SE:

GFS: much less cold than runs the last couple of days in SE (very unreliable that far out):

[wncsnow]

Just now, GaWx said:

 As usually occurs, the warmer change on the GEFS mean is much more subtle than that on the highly unreliable GFS operational out at day 9:

GEFS 850 mb anomalies: only slightly less cold than recent runs and still quite cold overall in SE:

GFS: much less cold than runs the last couple of days in SE (very unreliable that far out):

The GEFS has very little snow on its mean through 10 days. Slightly less than 6Z and 0Z. 

[SnowDawg]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GEFS has very little snow on its mean through 10 days. Slightly less than 6Z and 0Z. 

Big drop in QPF, looks suppressed. Huge QPF spike out over the Gulf of Mexico. I'm betting most members followed the op in shearing out/leaving behind the southern energy. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GEFS has very little snow on its mean through 10 days. Slightly less than 6Z and 0Z. 

Though not to the extreme of the warmer 12Z GFS days 9-10, the 12Z GEFS is coming in less cold than recent runs then due to significantly lower mean sfc high pressure coming down the Plains:

12Z GEFS SLP mean: max in Plains only ~1027 mb (still cold but not as strong cold coming down then)

 

6Z GEFS mean SLP: max was a much higher 1032 mb in Plains supporting colder air

[StantonParkHoya]

Mean usually follows the OP in some regard 

[wncsnow]

Euro is stuck on 54 on pivotalwx

[SnowDawg]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Euro is stuck on 54 on pivotalwx

Same on Wxbell

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS at 246 vs 6Z: 2m temps not as strong a push of Arctic with not as strong a mean high at surface (5 mb lower) as just posted:

 

 

But it is still quite cold:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Winter in the southeast is a comedy 

[SnowDawg]

Not entirely surprising I'd say. I think we knew more often than not the extreme cold tends to moderate some as we close in. Still beyond cold enough for winter weather. Track, timing, and intensity all need to lineup for that though.

[Prismshine Productions]

Winter in the southeast is a comedy 

No regrets getting married and moving to Vermont!




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[kvegas-wx]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Winter in the southeast is a comedy 

First Fab Feb comment in 3...2...1...

It is so unbelievably hard to line up the ingredients for a storm in the south.  

[BooneWX]

.

[GaWx]

Despite it being not quite as cold around days 9-10 vs some recent runs, the 12Z GEFS remains notably cold overall with BN in the SE every day Jan 2+. It still is very cold much of SE Jan 9-13. It also continues to show a good number of members (~9/30%) with a Miller A Gulf low somewhere within Jan 9-12.

[wncsnow]

Euro is rain/cutter for system 1

[wncsnow]

Central VA gets smoked with snow this run