Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS shows how we can still fail. Cold never gets entrenched and we get lots of cold rain until the full arctic blast then it's cold and dry. 

I’m going to bed and hope and pray I don’t see that run again in morning. Dumpster fire

[wncsnow]

The UK looks like it was setting up something good past 180 hours. Hard to extrapolate but looked better than the GFS. 

[SnowDawg]

Biggest failure on the GFS is not enough separation between the stage setting storm on the 5th/6th and the trailing wave. We need a full day or two between them instead it's right on its tail which one prevents the cold from pushing in ahead of it and doesn't give it room to truly amplify. We want the first one to clear through and enhance the 50/50 low to entrench our cold air, then have our trailing wave move in along th thermal boundary. Way too small of a detail to worry at this time, models could still be struggling to key in on specific pieces of energy. Main thing is that the H5 look is still consistent, and is a look that historically has been kind to us. 

[wncsnow]

The initial storm that the Euro was showing as snow earlier has gone back to a cutter tonight but it sets the stage possibly for a Miller A after...models obviously all over the place 

[wncsnow]

Tonight's model runs have not been kind for snowlovers. The PNA isn't looking as positive as it was a few days ago which is leading to the SE Ridge for the 6th/7th storm then it's too cold and suppressed and the low is in the central gulf. 

[GaWx]

0Z ensemble means:

1) Check out FL/deep SE. Miller A lows are being progged by a good # of members to be well south in the Gulf between Jan 9 and 12. This kind of track COULD give the deep SE a rare wintry event ~Jan 9-12 if there ends up being a track over S or C FL while moving ENE or NE. Just something to watch and nothing to get excited about now as it is still quite a bit too far out and these often disappear when getting closer. The last time there was just this level of ensemble noise for wintry precip in the deep SE was way back with the rare coastal winter storm 7 years ago.

2) There’s still plenty of action further north.

3) This is the best pattern in years for many in the SE for wintry precip potential as it continues to look like there will be multiple chances for the SE as a whole thanks to a long duration cold dominated period along with an active feed of southern shortwaves. The new Euro ens mean for RDU maintains the -13 F BN Jan 6-12, meaning it’s forecasting the 3rd coldest week there since the winter of 2011-2. 10 of the 11 coldest weeks since then had measurable wintry precip averaging nearly 3” of snow/sleet along with ZR during a good % with four of the 11 having 3.7+” of snow/sleet.

Euro:

 

GFS:

 

CMC:

[wncsnow]

The ensemble snow mean has dropped significantly again. It was up near 6 inches now it's 2.5. 

[BooneWX]

6z gfs somehow didn’t break the internet 

[olafminesaw]

Somewhat negative trends overnight, one way that we can fail is to get caught between the storm on the 6th and 9th, with the first too far north and the second suppressed. This is a risk in any pattern, the difference this time is the range of outcomes where it could snow at least a few inches is pretty wide.

At this range we have to take the ensembles as a whole from a few models cycles and not jump to conclusions one way or the other.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

The models have been kicking the can down the road for the last few runs. If they keep it up, we will be talking about late January storms. The mean is slowly going down too. We have seen this show before. 

[suzook]

10 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The models have been kicking the can down the road for the last few runs. If they keep it up, we will be talking about late January storms. The mean is slowly going down too. We have seen this show before. 

True, but i believe this might be our only real shot for any kind of snowfall. Late Jan will bring rain storms more than likely.

[Met1985]

I have to disagree with the above assertions. Maybe I'm too optimistic, but this has and is a step-down process. The first cold front is tomorrow, then around the 3rd, then around the 6th, then around the 10th. This map just shows me the possibilities that we will have with energy flying around. Looks good to me.

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[WNC_Fort]

3 minutes ago, suzook said:

True, but i believe this might be our only real shot for any kind of snowfall. Late Jan will bring rain storms more than likely.

Yep. That’s the problem. Ensemble means are decreasing and February is guaranteed to be awful for snow chances. So we have this 2 week window upcoming to score or winter is over again. 

[beanskip]

Been on this board for a long, long time (including prior iterations).

When it comes to snow in the 8-15 day range, all you can hope for is, well, hope.

We haven't had any for most of the last 3-5 years.

Right now we do.

Rather than parse every model run for good or bad trends, just enjoy having some hope and an overall favorable pattern in the medium range.

Then when it gets into the under-7-days range, you can commence with the cliff-diving/wishcasting that makes the board so entertaining.

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Been on this board for a long, long time (including prior iterations).

When it comes to snow in the 8-15 day range, all you can hope for is, well, hope.

We haven't had any for most of the last 3-5 years.

Right now we do.

Rather than parse every model run for good or bad trends, just enjoy having some hope and an overall favorable pattern in the medium range.

Then when it gets into the under-7-days range, you can commence with the cliff-diving/wishcasting that makes the board so entertaining.

 

Hey Beanskip .... long time no see. Where have you been hiding? Glad to see you are back. Let's reel one in.

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Hey Beanskip .... long time no see. Where have you been hiding? Glad to see you are back. Let's reel one in.

Not much snow down here in the panhandle (although a few GFS runs have gotten my attention!).

Pulling for y'all in the Carolinas/Ga./Va to hit the jackpot!

[StantonParkHoya]

Love how the GFS shows a HECS and people are complaining. We are snow peasants. Don’t spit on opportunity.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Love how the GFS shows a HECS and people are complaining. We are snow peasants. Don’t spit on opportunity.

Question, what time frame does it show this? Is it the 6th or 8th/9th? 

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Question, what time frame does it show this? Is it the 6th or 8th/9th? 

Question at this point does it matter? Not trying to be an ass but we know the models are going to change run by run. Especially when we have a PNA ridge, blocking,  50/50, and the PV looks like it's going to make it's way down into the lower 48. This all plays havoc on the modeling.  We've seen things blow up within 2 to 3 days from the event.  Just like earlier when several saw snow for the first time in 3 years.  

[wncsnow]

19 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Question, what time frame does it show this? Is it the 6th or 8th/9th? 

10th. The first two threats are now rain on the GFS. 

[Met1985]

Again I'm rooting like he'll for you guys. I hope yall get buried the next few weeks. I really want yall to score big time. 

[olafminesaw]

FWIW, the UKMet looks really nice for the storm on the 6th

[PackGrad05]

EPS probability of 1" of snow for RDU between now and 1/14 is around 56%

GEFS also likes the 1/10-1/14 timeframe but is considerably less than what it was showing yesterday.

Trends have not been favorable and, if anything, keep kicking it down the road to later dates.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

FWIW, the UKMet looks really nice for the storm on the 6th

 Hope the 12z run will be similar.

[olafminesaw]

Best case scenario would be a classic overrunning event on the 6th where it remains more flat/frontal. Only downside is someone probably ends up with a lot of ZR. The the coastal comes in a few days later and buries us. My sense though, is that a cutter for the first storm may be a better way to set the stage for the second, where without it cutting there's a chance of more of a threat to the deep south than the Carolina's. Could be wrong though.

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

EPS probability of 1" of snow for RDU between now and 1/14 is around 56%

GEFS also likes the 1/10-1/14 timeframe but is considerably less than what it was showing yesterday.

Trends have not been favorable and, if anything, keep kicking it down the road to later dates.

That is what's concerning me the most. We all know the op runs will be all over the place but for the ensembles to back off that much in a few days is not a good sign. 

[SnowDawg]

I'm sorry but the 6th has never really been the threat. Just because a few op runs have tried to show it doesn't make it so. As Eric Webb said yesterday this is a classic step down winter pattern that we've seen a thousand times in the south. 1: Clipper (3rd/4th), 2:Cutter with CAD potential (6th/7th), 3: Miller A potential anywhere from the Gulf coast to the mid-atlantic 8th-10th. As for the ensemble means, looking at the meteograms the Miller A threat itself hasn't budged. The reduction in means is largely due to outlier members showing significant snows from the Clipper/cutter dropping, as should be expected.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The models have been kicking the can down the road for the last few runs. If they keep it up, we will be talking about late January storms. The mean is slowly going down too. We have seen this show before. 

The proverbial case of continuing to hang your hat on models showing something two weeks out. Where have I seen this movie before?

[olafminesaw]

ICON looks much like the UKMET for the 6th. Not the storm to bet the house on, a bit of a thread the needle, but while we wait for clarity on the second storm, we track...

[wncsnow]

GFS is going to look a little different this run for the first storm