Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[jburns]

29 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's been so long i've lost my ski gloves and hat.  Did a late night Amazon purchase after that Euro run last night.

This is a good look for you.

A word of advice.  Keep your tongue off of the metal flagpole.

[Prismshine Productions]

It's been so long i've lost my ski gloves and hat.  Did a late night Amazon purchase after that Euro run last night.

How to doom the entire forum and guarantee a New England Blizzard...

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[Wow]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

How to doom the entire forum and guarantee a New England Blizzard...

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lol probably will happen anyway!  I'm not afraid to roll the dice!

[olafminesaw]

Euro AI likes the 9th

[SnowDawg]

Several rounds of winter weather on the 18z gfs and another on the way in as the run ends.

[Prismshine Productions]

Euro AI likes the 9th

What that equate to in snow? Too drunk to do the conversion

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[Met1985]

10 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

What that equate to in snow? Too drunk to do the conversion

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I don't think the Euro AI has snow maps. 

[StantonParkHoya]

[NorthHillsWx]

Oozing with potential. Oozing 

[suzook]

44 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I'll take that 2 inches for my area, and be happy, just like my wife always is.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Sneaky January 3?

[Met1985]

The pattern from New years moving forward has a ton of potential for multiple events and some extremely cold weather.  Not only the OP models but also the ENS suits as well show what an active pattern may set up.

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oozing with potential. Oozing 

Moist even

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Anyone have the GEFS ensemble mean trend from 0z to 18z?

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

More regarding the frigid Jan 6-12 on the Weeklies. As has been said, it isn’t projected to be dry like very cold weeks can be. As has been shown for several days, the signal is mainly neutral to slightly wet. Today’s is slightly wetter than yesterday’s/others and this continues to show good chances for Gulf Miller A potential as many members and operationals have shown. Most are 0.8-1.1” qpf. RDU is at 0.8” qpf for Jan 6-12 along with 13 BN:

 

RDU coldest 7 day periods (-10 BN or colder) since the winter of 2011-2 show this would be the coldest week since Jan 1-7 of 2018. In terms of absolutes as opposed to anomalies, 1/6-12/25 is being forecasted by today’s Euro Weeklies to be the 3rd coldest 7 day period at RDU since the winter of 2011-12 with only Jan 1-7, 2018, and Feb 15-21, 2015, colder.

RDU 7 day period temp. anom: rainfall/wintry

12/20-26/22 -11: 1.22” rainfall/T wintry

12/6-12/18 -11: 2.48” rainfall/8.9” SN

1/14-20/18 -11: 0.49” rainfall/6.1” SN

1/1-7/18 -21: 0.06” rainfall/0.9” SN

2/9-15/16 -15: 0.33” rainfall/0.2” wintry

1/17-23/16 -12: 1.19” rainfall/1.2” mix +icestorm

2/15-21/15 -22: 0.67” rainfall/1.4” mix

2/23-3/1/15 -15: 1.87” rainfall/6.5” mix

2/11-17/14 -10: 1.30” rainfall/3.7” mix

1/20-6/14 -10: 0.50” rainfall/0.1” wintry

1/22-28/13 -10: 0.33” rainfall/0.2” mix

 
 So, all 11 of these periods had wintry precip with all but one having measurable. The heaviest snowfalls tended to be with over 1” of rainfall though the 3rd heaviest snow (1/24-20/18) had only 0.49” of liquid equiv. So, I’d say that 0.8” of liquid equivalent would be pretty favorable for significant wintry precip.

 So, these 11 very cold RDU weeks since 2011-2 averaged an impressive 2.7” of snow and/or sleet. But the median is much lower, 0.9”. Thus, if I were living there, I’d certainly consider 2” during Jan 6-12 a solid win and 4” a big win. And having 3 of 11 with 6-9” (at or above avg season total) tells me that getting a full season’s worth then due to the degree of cold is not at all out of the realm of reasonable possibilities, especially if the bulk of the wintry falls as snow. Possibly a 25% chance? Of course any is a win in my book. 

 Also, these stats show that getting a significant portion of the wintry as ZR is quite possible (maybe 25-33% chance). So, it is mean/median SN/P 2.7”/0.9” plus possibly some amount of ZR.

[PackGrad05]

14 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Anyone have the GEFS ensemble mean trend from 0z to 18z?

It has stayed generally the same...  10-day probability of 1" of snow or more is around 15% for RDU.

Beyond 10 days, it tops out at 2-4" mean snowfall 

[BornAgain13]

Only goes to 180 hrs but the 0Z ICON was about to bring a Winter Storm...

[BooneWX]

That Icon run was about to smoke some folks

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Eric Webb: 

Fwiw, one thing that has always stuck out to me historically about these big dog coastal cyclone NC snow threats sorted by ENSO phase, even dating back into the late 19th century: 

Miller type A winter storms which occur in the cold phase of ENSO (cool neutral or La Niña conditions) are usually much kinder to RDU folks. Oth, big coastal cyclone cases in El Niño winters seem more likely to produce big snowfall gradients between the Triangle & the Triad areas. All things considered, this is likely because the subtropical jet juices these systems up just a little too much, shoving the rain/snow line &/or heaviest snows further to the NW.

Some examples I can think of:

- Dec 25-26 2010
- Jan 20 2009
- Jan 24-25 2000
- Feb 5-6 1984
- Feb 9-10 1967
- Jan 23-24 1955
- Jan 18-19 1955
- Mar 10-11 1934
- Jan 13-14 1933
- Feb 14 1913
- Feb 15-17 1902
- Feb 11-13 1899

[gamecockinupstateSC]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

That Icon run was about to smoke some folks

 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS looks like we’re about to be F’d by a Great Lakes low

[NorthHillsWx]

Canadian says “incoming”

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Eric Webb:  

A warning shot clipper system (Jan 3-4), followed by a CAD storm + big cold shot (Jan 6-7), & then an amped coastal cyclone (after Jan 7) is the “right” way to run a winter pattern & the kind of stuff some of the best winters in NC are made of.

We get the full buffet of wintry weather
 

[JoshM]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Eric Webb:  

A warning shot clipper system (Jan 3-4), followed by a CAD storm + big cold shot (Jan 6-7), & then an amped coastal cyclone (after Jan 7) is the “right” way to run a winter pattern & the kind of stuff some of the best winters in NC are made of.

We get the full buffet of wintry weather
 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks like we’re about to be F’d by a Great Lakes low

Yep. Ugly

 

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Canadian says “incoming”

for the upstate. Goes poof east of there

[NorthHillsWx]

Energy looks more consolidated coming south on the 0z than 18z for the 10th system 

[Thrasher Fan]

This GFS run is a mess. A bunch of amped up L's with cold chasing and then just plan old frigid.

[wncsnow]

The GFS shows how we can still fail. Cold never gets entrenched and we get lots of cold rain until the full arctic blast then it's cold and dry. 

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

for the upstate. Goes poof east of there

 Regarding the CMC, it gives snow to N GA, upstate SC, and nearly all of NC. Plus there’s a followup system waiting in the wings over the W Gulf. Of course it is just the day 9-10 CMC, which has little value and will almost definitely keep changing quite a bit during this period.