Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Allan Huffman: Today, the 12z runs of the 3 major global models each show a winter storm for the Carolinas/SE/mid-Atlantic although different impulses. CMC on the 6th-8th, GFS 2 systems on the 5th-6th and 7th-8th, ECMWF on the 5th-6th.  I wouldnt pay attention to the details yet, just know there is winter weather risk, especially between the 5th and 9th.

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

12Z Euro shows 3-5" of snow from murphy to manteo on 1/6-1/7

It would be acceptable.

[NorthHillsWx]

29 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

12Z Euro shows 3-5" of snow from murphy to manteo on 1/6-1/7

3-5” followed by days and days of cold. If folks don’t like that solution for these parts you need a new hobby. No big daddy (except Canadian) but this oozes with potential. One other thing I love about the models today is they show in a variety of ways. We aren’t relying on a miller A or miller B

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

3-5” followed by days and days of cold. If folks don’t like that solution for these parts you need a new hobby. No big daddy (except Canadian) but this oozes with potential. One other thing I love about the models today is they show in a variety of ways. We aren’t relying on a miller A or miller B

I'd prefer that to 6-10" that melts the next day, any time. 

[KChuck]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'd prefer that to 6-10" that melts the next day, any time. 

I might give it two days. 

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, KChuck said:

I might give it two days. 

Ill take a week. 

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

Ill take a week. 

6 weeks then on to spring.  Better than endless rain and mud

[suzook]

If anyone is disappointed with 3-6 inches of snow, they need to move. Getting that these days down here, is like getting a blizzard in the NE these days.

[BooneWX]

While attention is rightfully on the snow chances, here are my thoughts on the temps at 12z


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[suzook]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

While attention is rightfully on the snow chances, here are my thoughts on the temps at 12z


.

Yeah, I'm all for some snow, but those ridiculous cold temps, and for that long? Not thrilled...let the bashing begin..ha

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Yeah, I'm all for some snow, but those ridiculous cold temps, and for that long? Not thrilled...let the bashing begin..ha

Cold to that degree is worrisome, so you’re not alone. Heating demand will be immense and the extent of the cold prevents utilities from being able to allocate generation resources across the east coast. 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

While attention is rightfully on the snow chances, here are my thoughts on the temps at 12z


.

Make sure to secure the shield generator.

[hrtsdsn]

With all the snow discussions (and I'm hopeful for the Charlotte area) when does the bitter cold arrive and for how long do you estimate?   

As always, thank you all for your posts!!

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, hrtsdsn said:

With all the snow discussions (and I'm hopeful for the Charlotte area) when does the bitter cold arrive and for how long do you estimate?   

As always, thank you all for your posts!!

We start the step down Wednesday and it’s a progressive slide from there with each front being a bit more stout than the one before it. How long? That’s a great question but most ensembles have us in a freezer into week 2. Week 3 of Jan is just too far out to definitively say but right now it’s trending cold as well.

[gman]

I desperately want a good snow for our area, but I am concerned about the prolonged cold for our friends in Western NC, many of whom are still dealing with no heat, no power and no water. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, gman said:

I desperately want a good snow for our area, but I am concerned about the prolonged cold for our friends in Western, NC, many of whom are still dealing with no heat, no power and no water. 

Unfortunately, many are still in tents. I’m worried about them as well. This region is hurting tremendously both physically and economically.

[jburns]

One model

4 minutes ago, gman said:

I desperately want a good snow for our area, but I am concerned about the prolonged cold for our friends in Western, NC, many of whom are still dealing with no heat, no power and no water. 

 

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Unfortunately, many are still in tents. I’m worried about them as well. This region is hurting tremendously both physically and economically.

Way too cold for families to ride out in tents.  Obvious solution is to use large buildings with heat as shelters. Schools, churches, etc.  If it gets as cold and windy as the models forecast some people will die in tents. 

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 They keep getting colder. The bulk of the SE US being 8-12 F BN for 1/6-12 is easily the coldest Euro Weekly map I can recall for the SE US still over a week out and probably ever for any one week.

 Also, the weeks surrounding that week are cold, especially the week after with even it having many areas 7-10 BN! This run suggests a 5 to 7 BN Jan would be quite possible in most of the SE US similar to 2018, 2011, 1985, 1904, and 1887 Niñas. 1996/1984 Nina’s were not as cold and only 1918/1893 were even colder.

 So, this run implies a chance for the SE to have a top 3-7 cold Jan for La Niña out of ~40!

 

 Ditto to the above with today’s Euro Weeklies ens mean once again coldest by a decent margin for the SE US so far for Jan 6-12 and coldest for the SE US a week+ out I can recall for any week since I’ve been following this product (several years). The bulk of the SE US active posters are ~11-13 BN. The coldest days are 1/10-11 when many are nearly 20F BN, a very strong signal from a large ensemble still 12-13 days out! Don’t be surprised if we end up with 1-2 days that are nearly 25F BN! Note that the area covered by the 4th shade (-11F or colder) is even larger today. We could easily not have another week like this in the SE US for many years to come.

  Credit to the Euro Weeklies starting to see a cold signal for Jan 6-12 two weeks ago!

 It still looks solidly cold for Jan 13-18 though not at least yet close to this degree.

[BooneWX]

Good run for the Euro AI

[wncsnow]

Just give me one good snow and I'm good for the season. 

[Daniel Boone]

20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just give me one good snow and I'm good for the season. 

You'll get your 3 and be happy with them. 

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

You'll get your 3 and be happy with them. 

Once we lived in a time where the normal was multiple systems in the winter. The up coming pattern harkening back to that. But its been so long since that time it seem not real. 

I promise I will not get out any snow things until the day before. Not screwing this up

 

[Wow]

4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Once we lived in a time where the normal was multiple systems in the winter. The up coming pattern harkening back to that. But its been so long since that time it seem not real. 

I promise I will not get out any snow things until the day before. Not screwing this up

 

It's been so long i've lost my ski gloves and hat.  Did a late night Amazon purchase after that Euro run last night.

[strongwxnc]

It's been so long i've lost my ski gloves and hat.  Did a late night Amazon purchase after that Euro run last night.

To soon man to soon


.

[wncsnow]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

You'll get your 3 and be happy with them. 

I would be a happy man and my kids would finally see what snow is at the house. 

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Once we lived in a time where the normal was multiple systems in the winter. The up coming pattern harkening back to that. But its been so long since that time it seem not real. 

I promise I will not get out any snow things until the day before. Not screwing this up

 

I know. I hope it all pans out and we get even more than advertised and experience a throwback rest of Winter.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's been so long i've lost my ski gloves and hat.  Did a late night Amazon purchase after that Euro run last night.

That's like the southern equivalent of buying a snowblower. Cold rain incoming!!

[PackGrad05]

Roughly 29/50 EPS members show something (light) around 1/6.  Then there is another signal between 1/8-1/11 but they are all over the place as far as timing and amounts.

GEFS does not have the 1/6 event...  seems to be honing in more on the other one.

[strongwxnc]

Ouch! 

[GaWx]

More regarding the frigid Jan 6-12 on the Weeklies. As has been said, it isn’t projected to be dry like very cold weeks can be. As has been shown for several days, the signal is mainly neutral to slightly wet. Today’s is slightly wetter than yesterday’s/others and this continues to show good chances for Gulf Miller A potential as many members and operationals have shown. Most are 0.8-1.1” qpf. RDU is at 0.8” qpf for Jan 6-12 along with 13 BN:

 

RDU coldest 7 day periods (-10 BN or colder) since the winter of 2011-2 show this would be the coldest week since Jan 1-7 of 2018. In terms of absolutes as opposed to anomalies, 1/6-12/25 is being forecasted by today’s Euro Weeklies to be the 3rd coldest 7 day period at RDU since the winter of 2011-12 with only Jan 1-7, 2018, and Feb 15-21, 2015, colder.

RDU 7 day period temp. anom: rainfall/wintry

12/20-26/22 -11: 1.22” rainfall/T wintry

12/6-12/18 -11: 2.48” rainfall/8.9” SN

1/14-20/18 -11: 0.49” rainfall/6.1” SN

1/1-7/18 -21: 0.06” rainfall/0.9” SN

2/9-15/16 -15: 0.33” rainfall/0.2” wintry

1/17-23/16 -12: 1.19” rainfall/1.2” mix +icestorm

2/15-21/15 -22: 0.67” rainfall/1.4” mix

2/23-3/1/15 -15: 1.87” rainfall/6.5” mix

2/11-17/14 -10: 1.30” rainfall/3.7” mix

1/20-6/14 -10: 0.50” rainfall/0.1” wintry

1/22-28/13 -10: 0.33” rainfall/0.2” mix

 
 So, all 11 of these periods had wintry precip with all but one having measurable. The heaviest snowfalls tended to be with over 1” of rainfall though the 3rd heaviest snow (1/24-20/18) had only 0.49” of liquid equiv. So, I’d say that 0.8” of liquid equivalent would be pretty favorable for significant wintry precip.