Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[PackGrad05]

The 00Z EPS 1" probabilities for RDU actually decreased 20% from the 12Z runs.  Went to around 50% from upwards of 70%.

[kvegas-wx]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

The 00Z EPS 1" probabilities for RDU actually decreased 20% from the 12Z runs.  Went to around 50% from upwards of 70%.

Vortex means business.  Suppression city.  Nothing but pixie dust falling from Carolina Blue skies.  I honestly don't ever recall 6+ inches being modeled for northern FL.  Anyone know top of mind the most snow ever in one event in FL?

[NorthHillsWx]

20 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

More like congrats Florida

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If Florida gets 6-8” and we get blanked I quit lol

[Prismshine Productions]

Vortex means business.  Suppression city.  Nothing but pixie dust falling from Carolina Blue skies.  I honestly don't ever recall 6+ inches being modeled for northern FL.  Anyone know top of mind the most snow ever in one event in FL?

3/6/54
Santa Rosa County
4"

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[olafminesaw]

[wncsnow]

The EPS mean decreased from 5.3 to 4.0 here

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Until I see a big dog happen again, I am going to assume that it is impossible for it to happen in NC and for sure in SC. The FL snow would be hilarious and I would actually love to see it happen for those who haven't experienced it in a very long time or ever. Snow storms just don't happen in NC outside of the mountains anymore. Climate change or something else IDK. Models are starting to back off and they rarely ever increase after they start this slide. Going to be very cold and dry for much of us. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It’s a bit early to throw in the towel. We still don’t know for sure about the true extent of the cold push and the timing and orientation of impulses. 0Z Operational Euro was quite bullish for example while GFS was quite different.

We do have a favorable synoptic setup at the best time of the year- if you’re a snow lover. I am not a fan of cold weather unless it snows-let’s see how this progresses. We will have a better idea in the coming days.


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[Leesville Wx Hawk]

With that written, it will be interesting to plot the probabilities of the Ensembles over the next few days as was mentioned.


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[BooneWX]

29 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Until I see a big dog happen again, I am going to assume that it is impossible for it to happen in NC and for sure in SC. The FL snow would be hilarious and I would actually love to see it happen for those who haven't experienced it in a very long time or ever. Snow storms just don't happen in NC outside of the mountains anymore. Climate change or something else IDK. Models are starting to back off and they rarely ever increase after they start this slide. Going to be very cold and dry for much of us. 

Back off of what? You literally can’t dial up a better looking upper level pattern for the south east than what’s been depicted overnight. I’m so damn confused as to what people expect/want right now with it being the 29th and the first stages of a pattern change still being days away. I haven’t had snow in a climatologically favored region in almost 1,100 days. We all want snow, no shit. Why does every other post in this thread have to be some “it’ll never snow in my backyard ever again” shtick. We’ve got a thread for this. Hell, I made it myself! 
 

edit: and before someone says it - no you’re absolutely allowed to say and think it wont but for the love of god, back it up with reasoning other than you’re sad that it hasn’t snowed lately.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Back off of what? You literally can’t dial up a better looking upper level pattern for the south east than what’s been depicted overnight. I’m so damn confused as to what people expect/want right now with it being the 29th and the first stages still being days away. I haven’t had snow in a climatologically favored region in almost 1,100 days. We all want snow, no shit. Why does every other post in this thread have to be some “it’ll never snow in my backyard ever again” shtick. We’ve got a thread for this. Hell, I made it myself! 
 

edit: and before someone says it - no you’re absolutely allowed to say and think it wont but for the love of god, back it up with reasoning other than you’re sad that it hasn’t snowed lately.

The means are starting to drop and moisture seems to be getting suppressed on ensemble. GFS actually looks to be cutting the first storm and suppressing the second on the op. However, the means went down across all ensembles in recent runs. We all have seen this show before. The cold will be there though. 

[CentralNC]

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The means are starting to drop and moisture seems to be getting suppressed on ensemble. GFS actually looks to be cutting the first storm and suppressing the second on the op. However, the means went down across all ensembles in recent runs. We all have seen this show before. The cold will be there though. 

1985 record cold blast had very little snow with it.  I think we had a small event right at the end of the cold pattern.  But no big dogs.

[NorthHillsWx]

There is no reason to be throwing in the towel at all. Means will jump around a lot especially with some of the HECS included as those affect the means disproportionately. However, for those who haven’t seen snow in 3 years it is totally fair to be pessimistic until it snows again. That being said, we don’t need to clog this board with “it’ll never snow again posts” or junk as there is actually great discussion going on from some of the veteran members. A few weeks ago when this place was dead, whatever, but there is an exciting pattern showing and some of the expert posters have been honking the horn for some time. 

[ILMRoss]

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The means are starting to drop and moisture seems to be getting suppressed on ensemble. GFS actually looks to be cutting the first storm and suppressing the second on the op. However, the means went down across all ensembles in recent runs. We all have seen this show before. The cold will be there though. 

this isn't a trend i would look particularly far into just yet. we're getting *the* canonical greenland block associated with so many of our big hits... i wouldn't fret at this stage unless this model suite weakens/moves that block in a meaningful way

[suzook]

At this point, we all know it will be COLD. Just need some precip at the right time. The GFS is backing off how cold it does get though the last few runs. 

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The means are starting to drop and moisture seems to be getting suppressed on ensemble. GFS actually looks to be cutting the first storm and suppressing the second on the op. However, the means went down across all ensembles in recent runs. We all have seen this show before. The cold will be there though. 

The means go up and down with every run. Especially the GEFS and it's underdispersal bias, and tendency to be over influenced by individual members compared to the EPS. At this lead time H5 is all that matters, and nothing has changed in the last few days other than actually a few minor adjustments for the better.

I believe the first storm around the 6th cutting could actually be crucial to enhancing the 50/50 ahead of the second one. Then it all comes down to timing a phase, always hard to do, but the block and 50/50 can make it easier. Betting on cold and dry is smart though if you don't wanna be let down. It's always the easiest outcome. 

[SnowDawg]

Also, I want a big dog as much as anybody. But going on 3 years without snow, after never going a single winter without before, I'd be thrilled just to get an inch or two from a potent clipper. Hell an aggressive flizzard would probably be enough to put a smile on my face lol.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Also, I want a big dog as much as anybody. But going on 3 years without snow, after never going a single winter without before, I'd be thrilled just to get an inch or two from a potent clipper. Hell an aggressive flizzard would probably be enough to put a smile on my face lol.

Good attitude and that may be what happens. A solid 1-2 inches would be fine.


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[BooneWX]

Woof


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[beanskip]

Canadian shows a nice 1/7 snow that would make many on this board happy.

That's Day 8, so getting closer to a better range. 

[lilj4425]

Chris Justus on Facebook getting everybody’s ears perked up. Oh boy. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Great 12z runs

[StantonParkHoya]

OBX / SENC winners on 12z GFS

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO is beautiful. All 3 major ops have snow for most of the forum.

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO actually focuses on the Jan 6 wave. Interesting…

[Wow]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO actually focuses on the Jan 6 wave. Interesting…

what is the upper level setup following this? ugh  i need to get a wxbell account 

[BooneWX]

Been a very long time that we’ve had all 3 major global models show winter wx solutions on an event a week out.

[SnowDawg]

Very well might have followed that up with our big dog from last night had the energy not got left behind in the SW. 

[NorthHillsWx]

For the doom and gloom of 6z (lol) 12z delivered. Unreal to see snow across the suites 

[PackGrad05]

12Z Euro shows 3-5" of snow from murphy to manteo on 1/6-1/7