Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[BornAgain13]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The majority of the op runs don't have a storm. There's no clear threat yet. 

Exactly... The OP runs don't. Look at the new 12z EPS. That should cheer you up.

[PackGrad05]

Important to note that the latest Euro ensembles seem to be focusing on two events...  one in the 6/7 timeframe and another around the 9/10 timeframe.  Both events have a mean of 1-2"...    The second event has 7/50 members at 10"+.  The majority of members are between 0-2"...  

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Important to note that the latest Euro ensembles seem to be focusing on two events...  one in the 6/7 timeframe and another around the 9/10 timeframe.  Both events have a mean of 1-2"...    The second event has 7/50 members at 10"+.  The majority of members are between 0-2"...  

so appetizer followed by dinner? Don’t mind if I do 

[PackGrad05]

Same model shows a 28% chance of 6" and 10% chance of 12"

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Katie bar the door 

[Prismshine Productions]

Some big ones in there too

Out of curiosity, any show something for Florida?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[lilj4425]

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

New EPS snow mean. 

Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed.

Should I start the thread?  I bring the mojo.  

[Prismshine Productions]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Should I start the thread?  I bring the mojo.  

yes you do my friend, recall many times while I still lived down in the Palmetto State you making a thread and it hit

[suzook]

14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Should I start the thread?  I bring the mojo.  

We are only 15 days out, what could go wrong?

[olafminesaw]

https://x.com/GMengel/status/1873081159061782683

Really does a good job of showing the two threat windows, the second being the more potent (9th/10th)

[GaWx]

 They keep getting colder. The bulk of the SE US being 8-12 F BN for 1/6-12 is easily the coldest Euro Weekly map I can recall for the SE US still over a week out and probably ever for any one week.

 Also, the weeks surrounding that week are cold, especially the week after with even it having many areas 7-10 BN! This run suggests a 5 to 7 BN Jan would be quite possible in most of the SE US similar to 2018, 2011, 1985, 1904, and 1887 Niñas. 1996/1984 Nina’s were not as cold and only 1918/1893 were even colder.

 So, this run implies a chance for the SE to have a top 3-7 cold Jan for La Niña out of ~40!

 

[BooneWX]

Happy hour GFS

[beanskip]

TFW the 18z GFS shows a little spot of mixed precip over Osceola County Florida and snow just a few miles north of Tampa .... 

[BooneWX]

LAWD


.

[BornAgain13]

@wncsnow, there's a good run from an OP on the 18z. 

[JoshM]

37 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

LAWD


.

[Upstate Tiger]

Just got back home from visiting family in SC and peeked at the 18z GFS.  

I need a cigarette.  

[suzook]

LMFAO. The 18z GFS has snow in Southern Florida. Funny.

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

@wncsnow, there's a good run from an OP on the 18z. 

If it happens on the 18Z, does it really even happen at all? Kind of like if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound? 

[snowbird1230]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If it happens on the 18Z, does it really even happen at all? Kind of like if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound? 

I think this guy is a kid that gets on his dad's account and posts..is there a children's thread he can play on?

[BornAgain13]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If it happens on the 18Z, does it really even happen at all? Kind of like if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound? 

There's no pleasing you is it? Lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, beanskip said:

TFW the 18z GFS shows a little spot of mixed precip over Osceola County Florida and snow just a few miles north of Tampa .... 

12Z EPS: a whopping 30 of 50 (60%) have at least a T of wintry precip somewhere in FL (largest % I can recall seeing over the years on EPS this far (a week+) out) with 13 of those giving TLH a T+!

18Z GEFS: 14 of 30 FL!

[GaWx]

 Per the model consensus, especially today’s GEFS, there’s a good chance for the following to verify when averaged out over Jan 1-11:

PNA > +0.5

AO < -2

NAO < -0.5

-EPO

 
 Since 1950 the only Jan 1-11 with this combo were 2010 and 1985 (the only La Niña). So, this would be a rare occurrence if it occurs. On top of that the MJO is forecasted to be favorable for a cold E US.

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, snowbird1230 said:

I think this guy is a kid that gets on his dad's account and posts..is there a children's thread he can play on?

I have been right more than most on this forum. I got receipts too. Noone has a sense of humor anymore either sheesh. You got a problem you're more than welcome to PM me. 

[wncsnow]

I haven't seen snow here in almost 1,100 days. I have more than enough reasons to be pessimistic and idgaf who's bothered by it. 

[snowbird1230]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I have been right more than most on this forum. I got receipts too. Noone has a sense of humor anymore either sheesh. You got a problem you're more than welcome to PM me. 

It's your bedtime ..son

[mclean02]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Per the model consensus, especially today’s GEFS, there’s a good chance for the following to verify when averaged out over Jan 1-11:

PNA > +0.5

AO < -2

NAO < -0.5

-EPO

 
 Since 1950 the only Jan 1-11 with this combo were 2010 and 1985 (the only La Niña). So, this would be a rare occurrence if it occurs. On top of that the MJO is forecasted to be favorable for a cold E US.

Trends are looking good!

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

It's your bedtime ..son

I'm not going to muddy this thread. Pm me gramps

[BooneWX]

The type of entertainment SouthernWX could never deliver on