kvegas-wx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What I'm concerned about is the once promising storm on the 6th/7th has turned into a cutter. We are already starting to delay the cold. Oh, you can almost imagine it can't you? The "pipe busting cold" moderates into a 40s and drizzle. That movie has at least a hundred sequels. Somebody said it yesterday I think. Delay a couple of times and we'll be talking about Fab Feb in no time. I'm most concerned about our mountain folks though. They simply don't need that kind of modeled cold right now. It wouldn't be survivable in the tiny homes that have been installed in many locations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 38 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What I'm concerned about is the once promising storm on the 6th/7th has turned into a cutter. We are already starting to delay the cold. I actually think we've seen some really positive trends overnight in this regard. It was looking like a cutter, or New England special was inevitable in that time frame with the cold air relaxing before the arctic blast arrived behind the storm. Yesterday it was looking like chances were higher for something around the 9th/10th, but now we may get something sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 40 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What I'm concerned about is the once promising storm on the 6th/7th has turned into a cutter. We are already starting to delay the cold. Trends seem to be colder but the moisture is cutting, I agree. Dry, cold or warmer and wet. It has become harder to see the cold and wet link up in NC/SC. We do need the cold first, and that appears to be there on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Check out this post from Blacksburg NWS. La Nina will keep majority of the storms systems tracking north across the Ohio Valley this winter. Can not rule out a few colder than normal days in January 2025, but generally temperatures will average above normal for the area. There are no strong signals for above or below normal precipitation (rain or snow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Eric Webb has been the Grinch when it comes to shooting down any optimism the past few years. He is now beating the drum 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Ensembles look great. I think we get some absolute weenie runs early in the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Dr Jonathan Wall: As we wait for this Jan 7-10 period to lock onto a system, plenty of big dog members out there. To get a 10”+ snow, it will most likely be a miller A, as depicted by this EPS member. Note the cold is delayed enough for a low to form, the 1043mb high is west of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The 12z CMC was setting up for a big run at the end... To bad it didn't go past 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 12z GEFS not suppressed like the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 12z gfs op was its coldest run yet. My god. The gates to the Arctic open and stay that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Foothills folks might leave this hobby if 12z came to fruition though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 At this pace, it’ll be snowing in Puerto Rico by 0Z. I’m getting concerned about the extent of the cold. There’s too much of a good thing and what the models are showing is not only pipe bursting cold but the type of cold that causes widespread grid control issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Foothills folks might leave this hobby if 12z came to fruition though Nope, it will not verify as depicted ...... never does at this range. The trend will be less of a cold push as we approach that timeframe. It will still be cold, just not below zero as some models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The models are trending west again with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The models are trending west again with the trough. End of run has spots in ENC at 0 degrees Fahrenheit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Check out this post from Blacksburg NWS. La Nina will keep majority of the storms systems tracking north across the Ohio Valley this winter. Can not rule out a few colder than normal days in January 2025, but generally temperatures will average above normal for the area. There are no strong signals for above or below normal precipitation (rain or snow). Very strange post from them. Using an old month long temperature outlook when everything currently valid from the CPC all the way out to January 24th is for well below normal temps in the east. Zero chance January is above normal if that is even close. Also, NOAA has still yet to declare LA Niña as enso neutral conditions continue to persist. Even if so it'd be extremely weak, and the MJO far more likely to drive the overall pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: End of run has spots in ENC at 0 degrees Fahrenheit Not even close to snow anywhere in the SE that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Not even close to snow anywhere in the SE that run I would argue the 8th-10th was actually quite close had the energy not got left behind back in the Rockies. You can see it start to organize in the southern plains and then gets sheared apart as the phase fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 It’s still loading for me but this is shaping up to be a nice EPS run. Quite the Miller A signature. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Just now, BooneWX said: It’s still loading for me but this is shaping up to be a nice EPS run. Quite the Miller A signature. Yep best run yet by far as I can tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 And that's what matters is the ensembles at this point.... It's nice looking at the OPS at this range but they go back and forth like wind shield wipers.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Not even close to snow anywhere in the SE that run Don't be disheartened by a single deterministic op run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't be disheartened by a single deterministic op run.. The majority of the op runs don't have a storm. There's no clear threat yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Timeline wise, we really shouldn’t be looking for a threat. It’s the 28th and we know that anything before the 7th/8th is a wash. We’re 10+ days out from anything coming to fruition. It’s all pattern recognition for now but I’ve got a good feeling the Op runs will start looking more interesting somewhere in that Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 That 50/50 low is going to help put CAD regions in the freezer. The EPS mean is absolutely absurd. 70-80% odds for 1” or greater in most of Nc. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 New EPS snow mean. Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed. 1 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: New EPS snow mean. Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed. A 3” mean near Atlanta is just absolutely wild. Still less wild than there being a mean for central Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: New EPS snow mean. Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed. I’ll take that and run with it any day and twice on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Some big ones in there too 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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