BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:33 PM Pacific jet retraction, blocking, west coast ridge, cross polar flow. We need one more thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:36 PM 3 hours ago, BooneWX said: Pacific jet retraction, blocking, west coast ridge, cross polar flow. We need one more thing. Split flow with an active subtropical jet please 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:05 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Split flow with an active subtropical jet please YOULL TAKE THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM AND YOULL LIKE IT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM 36 minutes ago, BooneWX said: YOULL TAKE THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM AND YOULL LIKE IT Northern stream = brown ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM Compared to the 18 cold ENSO Jans since 1991: the mean of the last 12 runs of the 4 member CFS ensemble has the SE at the 3rd coldest Jan 7-13 for cold ENSO behind only 2011 and 1996 with an avg of ~4.5-5F BN: Just one week ago, this is how much warmer the 12 run CFS ens mean was: ~2F AN Getting a week to average 5F BN is not the least bit easy! Precip is ~normal, which is good because that is wetter than the majority of cold periods since cold is more often than not associated with BN precip in the SE. Also, Jan 7-13 normal precip is pretty significant, especially well inland. So, it appears that there would be a decent shot at wintry precip during this period if the last 12 CFS runs have the right idea (possible Gulf moisture): 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Tuesday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:57 PM GFS suite slowly taking baby steps towards the EPS over the last few runs. Time will tell if it folds entirely or they meet somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Northern stream = brown ground We’re in the season of giving (to everyone else except us foothills folk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM GFS is finally getting a clue and progressing things,no digging and dumping in the west this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:01 PM The 12Z EPS 360 hour has about as negative H5 anomalies as I can recall on any run at 360 centered in the E US. NYC is at 534 dm, which is a whopping 14-15 dm BN! Keep in mind that that is a 50 member ensemble mean out 15 days, a very difficult modeled anomaly to have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:12 PM How about this earlier in the 12Z EPS (at 270)? This has E NC H5 at 20 dm BN! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:16 PM 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: How about this earlier in the 12Z EPS (at 270)? This has E NC at 20 dm BN! Yay cold and dry! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM Euro snow ensemble mean was nice 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Today’s Euro Weeklies for Jan 6-12 has the 3rd shade of cold covering most of the E US vs just a tiny area in the 3rd shade mainly in NC the last 4 days. The third shade is 3-6C BN or 5.4-10.8F BN averaged over a full week! That’s easily the coldest EW map that I have saved in my files (all from the last 3 winters) in the SE for a week that doesn’t even start for 13 days. Note how far out this 3rd shade goes offshore as well as deep into FL: @pcbjr Precip anomaly map is similar to the CFS map I posted earlier: this has NN in the SE, which is as much as I’d ask for with it this cold. The green in the N Gulf suggests the possibility of a Miller A Gulf low: The following week (1/13-19) is also cold though it only shows the 2nd shade of blue so far (still 20+ days out). ————- Edit: The only other EE map I have that is comparable (slightly warmer SE) with most of the SE US in 5.4-10.8F BN is closer in at 9 days out (11/23/24) preceding Dec 2-8. How did it verify? Wilmington, NC (map: ~-6F): actual was -10.9F (so, it wasn’t nearly cold enough) Savannah (map ~-5.5F): actual was -9.7 (so, it wasn’t nearly cold enough) If this verification were to happen to be an indication of what’s to come Jan 6-12, the SE (at the very least) would verify colder then what today’s map shows. Also, if the strong cold signal maintains itself, look for a portion of this going into the 4th shade of blue on a run within a few days. The 4th shade starts at -10.8F. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:54 PM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 12:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:12 AM We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 12:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:18 AM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:54 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:56 AM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Wednesday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:41 AM 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! I felt the same way when we went through the late 90s snow drought. Then Jan 2000 came. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Wednesday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:56 AM 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone! Don’t forget March 1960. Good snows only 65 years ago. I still hear about those three Wednesdays and that we get our biggest snows in March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:48 PM Eric Webb: Pepperidge farm remembers when the "record" cold PDO was supposed to give us a -PNA/SE ridge pattern all winter long this year. Instead, the exact opposite has happened/is continuing to happen & the PDO is rapidly rising. A lot of people finding out the hard way that the PDO has no value in winter forecasting & it doesn't "force" the extratropical wave pattern, even in an extreme state. The PDO is at the mercy of the tropics & the atmosphere 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:43 PM Possibly the highest mean of the season 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:36 PM EPS shows about a 15% chance of 1" of snow for RDU through that time period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM The mean trough is starting to trend a bit too far east for my liking on the ensembles. Much further and could look like this past weekends cold with storms not organizing til out over the Atlantic. Hopefully they'll tick back west over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:44 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted Wednesday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:19 PM Anyways the 18z GFS says Merry Christmas,brings the big dog and puts everyone in the freezer late in the run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:27 PM 6 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Anyways the 18z GFS says Merry Christmas,brings the big dog and puts everyone in the freezer late in the run. I’ll take my 15” of snow followed by 0 degrees and call her a season 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Wednesday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:44 PM 21 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Anyways the 18z GFS says Merry Christmas,brings the big dog and puts everyone in the freezer late in the run. Little doubt cold is coming. I always look for a storm on the front end of a cold dump. Hopefully it can work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 02:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:11 AM When I start counting more than just a couple of ensemble members with wintry precip in FL (anywhere from T to measurable), it starts to get my attention for especially us deep SE folks where it is pretty rare. I haven’t had even just a T of any kind of wintry precip in nearly 7 years, the longest for this area at least going back 140 years! The latest runs of 2 of the 3 major ensembles all have the largest # of members like that yet this season (not surprising considering how cold they are and the strong hint of multiple cold plunges as opposed to just one and done). -18Z GEFS: 11 of 30 (37%) have it in FL! Prior 3 runs had 5 each. This usually has highest of the 3 ens but 37% is still very impressive! -12Z GEPS: 4 of 20 (20%); 0Z had only 1 and yesterday’s 12Z had none -12Z EPS: 4 of 50 (8%) but 0Z had 7 of 50 (14%); this usually has lowest of the 3 ens. -The bulk of the wintry events are near the end (Jan 8-10) but a couple on the GEPS are as early as Jan 4. @pcbjr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 02:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:59 AM That trough needs to be further west or it's cold, dry and windy for most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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