Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:03 PM 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: La Nina cold usually dumps in the northern plains so it makes sense. Lr uses enso greatly but, medium I don't think so. It's output does look nina though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Idk. I’ll take the cold dumping in the plains on Ops for now. I could care less about a trough centered over New England. The former has a much better chance of delivering with a block than the latter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:11 PM 27 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Idk. I’ll take the cold dumping in the plains on Ops for now. I could care less about a trough centered over New England. The former has a much better chance of delivering with a block than the latter. I would normally agree with you but the past 3 or 4 winters have had a parade of storms cutting West of us with the SE Ridge flexing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:13 PM Just now, wncsnow said: I would normally agree with you but the past 3 or 4 winters have had a parade of storms cutting West of us with the SE Ridge flexing. The past 3 or 4 winters have had Oct/Nov temps in Jan for the most part as well, so idk if we really have any track record to go on in recent years as far as that’s concerned with low placement + the cold dumping into the conus. This side of the world has been devoid of cold since a 2 week period in 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:38 PM 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:06 PM 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: They’re out brining roads between here and louisburg. Don’t think they even touched the brine supply last winter. W 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM PAC is running the show. Until this changes, models are irrelevant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:43 PM GFS doesn't get cold through 16 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Positive trends on. The Euro ens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Monday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:17 PM 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Positive trends on. The Euro ens There are some differences between the operational GFS and EURO long range with the EURO being a better set up for us. Unfortunately, when there are two options on the table, it's best to avoid disappointment and go with the less wintry solution. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:12 PM If the EPS had moved towards the GFS solution then I'd be super worried, instead it doubled down and improved an already great look. Even on the GEFS it looks more delayed than denied. GFS has been wrong on long range warmth at least twice already this season. Long ways to go, enjoy the model watching roller coaster lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:35 PM 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: GFS doesn't get cold through 16 days. Yeah, it's likely seeing the MJO stalling in Ph 6 and crawling into 7 later. That's what it's solution looks like. If it were to be right, it's shut the blinds for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:36 PM 4 hours ago, Bevo said: PAC is running the show. Until this changes, models are irrelevant. MJO Ph 6 stall. GFS keying on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted Monday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:39 PM GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:56 PM 16 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive. Hopefully the GFS is being GooFuS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Monday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:13 PM 15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all Lots are though, including BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:14 PM 18z GFS is a clinic of how to establish a semi-permanent SER. Ugly doesn’t even do that run justice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:19 PM 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Lots are though, including BAM We’ll see. There are conflicting suites and it’s not locked in at all. GEFS is trending towards the Op. MJO staying in phase 6… I do not like what I’m seeing. Will it be 70s in January like the 18z gfs insists? No. But with all the cold dumping into upper Midwest and a SER entrenched I do not see winter weather chances at all through week 1 of the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:24 PM Maybe a change is coming but I see the can kicking beginning. To me, we can kick is past the first week in Jan now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:35 PM The EPS has been and is currently beating the drum. Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a really nice pattern.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM The Euro AIFS looks good in the extended period also.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:40 PM Euro at 12z is dang cold!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:45 PM CMC has been looking good as well. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:54 PM GEFS will always follow the OP to an extent as it suffers from underdispersal issues. Doesn't mean it's wrong, just an important thing to remember. It's GFS vs everybody else right now. Tendency after the last few winters is just to go with the warm look, but seeing people like Eric Webb and BAM adamantly against the idea of a persistent western trough gives me pause. Frustrating as it may be, guess we'll wait and see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:47 AM For what it’s worth, the AI models, including the GFS graph cast are closer to the EPS than the GFS and its suite 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:10 AM Realistically, we have about 45 days from Jan 1 to Feb 15. After that, it starts getting springish and our chances fade. Dont have long windows to waste around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 03:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:18 AM Last year someone posted the stages of winter snow lovers in the south. That needs to resurface 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted Tuesday at 05:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:05 AM Huge changes on 00 Gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:32 PM lol…. Gentle swing there by the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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