WinstonSalemArlington Posted Saturday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:56 PM 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:56 AM The last 6 days of Euro Weeklies runs have had measurable snow into far N FL on the mean! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Sunday at 12:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:10 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 02:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:03 PM 14 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: and it is gone... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Sunday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:52 PM 48 minutes ago, eyewall said: and it is gone... Good. Snow is icky. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Sunday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:15 PM Best we can do is a cutter on this run lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:25 PM 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Best we can do is a cutter on this run lol: Hey! I’ll take that signal this far out. Storm present in the eastern US and HP aplenty to the north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM On another note, I’m not going to get giddy about how cold some of the guidance is. My worry is that too much of a good thing will have lows tracking through Cuba. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM Some of you RDU folks need to go full weenie after that Euro run 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Euro brings the big dog late in the run,good grief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Sunday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:07 PM We're never gonna reel anything in from 380 hours but it's nice to see operational runs lining up with the potential seen on the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Sunday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:26 PM On 12/21/2024 at 12:41 PM, BooneWX said: Christmas Eve bares watching for an icing event…. Damn. You must be one tough dude. No way am I standing outside naked waiting for an icing event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Damn. You must be one tough dude. No way am I standing outside naked waiting for an icing event. Just bring your jingle bells…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM Models agree that the first half of January will be frigid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted Sunday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:04 PM 18 z GFS not agreeing but doesn’t seem to follow Ensembles. We shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:28 PM 1 hour ago, jburns said: Damn. You must be one tough dude. No way am I standing outside naked waiting for an icing event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 02:16 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:16 AM 18z GFS was a disaster but ensembles have the pattern we want. I’m not getting excited until we’re in the 7 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 03:12 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:12 AM while the euro op looked good, the ensembles show a 30% chance of dusting and less than 15% chance of 1" (as of now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:35 AM Cold, dry NW flow. Trough orientation still too far NE. Mountains will have chances with clippers and NW flow but the rest of us will be dry unless that trough orientation changes and we can fire up the subtropical jet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Monday at 05:59 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:59 AM I think at minimum the 4th-6th is the first period to watch to see if we can get some members to start to cluster around anything. Right now there is definitely a small signal in the noise, but still far too many scenarios on the table to draw any conclusions. 12z EPS showed these at the same time, I'll take it at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted Monday at 11:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:55 AM 8 hours ago, wncsnow said: Cold, dry NW flow. Trough orientation still too far NE. Mountains will have chances with clippers and NW flow but the rest of us will be dry unless that trough orientation changes and we can fire up the subtropical jet. Yep. I don’t get the excitement. More of the same from last year. Folks get excited by the cold air but no moisture. Don’t worry though, it’ll swing back through after the cold air leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:55 PM The Operational models are backing off the cold already. If the ensembles start to follow it could be another case of misled hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:17 PM 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Operational models are backing off the cold already. If the ensembles start to follow it could be another case of misled hope. par for the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:36 PM It’s gotten so bad that I’m hoping for a couple hours of freezing drizzle in the morning. And even that is a long shot now. Ops dumping cold into Midwest should scare everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:49 PM 12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s gotten so bad that I’m hoping for a couple hours of freezing drizzle in the morning. And even that is a long shot now. Ops dumping cold into Midwest should scare everyone SE Ridge about to flex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:00 PM 23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s gotten so bad that I’m hoping for a couple hours of freezing drizzle in the morning. And even that is a long shot now. Ops dumping cold into Midwest should scare everyone If I am correct today marks 1059 days since the last measurable snow in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:24 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: The Operational models are backing off the cold already. If the ensembles start to follow it could be another case of misled hope. The last few GFS suites especially have trended toward the initial cold in January coming down further west vs what was showing late last week through early yesterday. Hoping that would be temporary or better yet a head-fake. Interesting times in the forecasting discussion world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 PM 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: The last few GFS suites especially have trended toward the initial cold in January coming down further west vs what was showing late last week through early yesterday. Hoping that would be temporary or better yet a head-fake. Interesting times in the forecasting discussion world! La Nina cold usually dumps in the northern plains so it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:55 PM 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: La Nina cold usually dumps in the northern plains so it makes sense. The MJO forecasts are what make me think the recent GFS suite trend is mainly a head fake or temporary at worst and that the E US will likely be dominated by cold in much of Jan 1-20+. Fingers crossed. *Edit: Also the (near) record Dec +PNA for cold ENSO is encouraging for Jan +PNA prospects per analogs. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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