WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 Eric Webb: Euro Ensemble has a CAD wedge for a week straight in NC & VA next week through the end of December. Yeah so much for that “torch” pattern. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869473367943999824?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 The Euro Weeklies still look nice for cold potential Jan 6-12. H5 is a beaut for a period that’s still 2.5-3.5 weeks out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Eric Webb: Euro Ensemble has a CAD wedge for a week straight in NC & VA next week through the end of December. Yeah so much for that “torch” pattern. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869473367943999824?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Yay 40s and drizzle. Can't wait! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 I had to turn on my air conditioning today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 The 0Z 12/18 GFS ens extended looks beautiful at H5/H8 along with many Canadian surface highs dropping down during Jan 6-17. Consistent with the Euro. Bring it on! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 Folks, the new 0Z GEFS actually looks nice as early as Dec 30th and is the best looking that early in at least 4 days of runs. Progression is really good to see. And the 0Z EPS is a real beaut! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: Folks, the new 0Z GEFS actually looks nice as early as Dec 30th and is the best looking that early in at least 4 days of runs. Progression is really good to see. And the 0Z EPS is a real beaut! I sure hope so. Been waiting a long time for a shot a winter weather. Hope it comes to fruition. Always enjoy reading your posts. Merry Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 19 Share Posted December 19 12z GFS is a dream run for mountain folks around the 30th 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 I’m excited about the Jan potential but man… I can’t help but notice how in most of the LR guidance, the trough axis is over New England. That’s just simply not going to get it done here most of the time. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: At this point we will consider that snow lol.https://www.wral.com/news/local/climate-change-warming-raleigh-winters-dec-2024/ 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 Jumpin January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: It's gotta be our year, right? Right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 Can we just get one CAD overrunning setup? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 20 Share Posted December 20 BAMWx: This type of pattern flip coming for the new year will take some time for the cold to bleed in so be patient. The nice thing about a setup like this is we’re not getting flooded with Arctic air and shutting off the storm chances. Should be ideal for snow lovers too. Cold bleeds in… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21 Share Posted December 21 9 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Jumpin January The week 3/4 outlook website has a great archive section. I just took a look at all winter week 3/4 outlooks since they started 2015-6. I can confirm that today’s, with all but the S 1/2 of FL in 60-70% BN chances, is easily THE coldest week 3/4 outlook for the SE as a whole for Jan on record! The 2nd coldest for Jan was issued for Jan 16-29, 2016: 1/16-29/2016 verified very well with the solid cold of 4-6 BN. Also, there was a major winter storm N GA/Carolinas. In addition, flurries fell as far S as Gainesville, FL. (I was there) @pcbjr Could the SE, including Deep South, have a similarly cold and wintry two week period to 1/16-29/2016? Based on today’s coldest week 3/4 forecast on record for Jan, the extended models, Dec cold/strong +PNA analogs, and a decent chance to have an MJO largely near or inside the circle starting on left side, I wouldn’t at all discount this possibility. Could this finally be when the widespread SE major winter storm drought ends?? Was this the coldest week 3/4 outlook on record for the SE for ALL met winter from an absolutes standpoint? There’s only one other that can compare, the one for 2/9-22/2019 (see below). But that one was for a period with avg normals ~3F warmer than those pertaining to today’s week 3/4 outlook. Thus, I’d say today’s is the coldest week 3/4 outlook for the SE on record in terms of implied absolutes being forecasted for all met. winter! 8 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 21 Share Posted December 21 I’m looking at Xmas day and cloudy and mid-40s feels festive. That’s a win. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 21 Share Posted December 21 29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’m looking at Xmas day and cloudy and mid-40s feels festive. That’s a win. Weather looks phenomenal. And even the “torch” ain’t looking so torchy. I guess it depends on where you’re at, but the extended for me is mostly 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 21 Share Posted December 21 From Van Denton WGHP: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Saturday at 04:30 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:30 AM I’d take my chances with that right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Saturday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:16 PM An actual Miller A in fantasy land at 12z.... Brought a tear to my eye just seeing it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Christmas Eve bares watching for an icing event…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Saturday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:33 PM 52 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Christmas Eve bares watching for an icing event…. How far East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted Saturday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:48 PM 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: An actual Miller A in fantasy land at 12z.... Brought a tear to my eye just seeing it. Seen that,and the Euro is sorta honking too but not as big .Makes sense MJO coming into phase 8 around the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:01 PM 28 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: How far East? Central NC atm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: Central NC atm Probably too dry West of the triangle. An odd setup, not sure I buy it, I suspect precip will be too suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted Saturday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:19 PM There's also the 11 year solar lag response for NAO,AO.Also affects the Aleutian Low Doesn't guarantee cold other things have to be included as QBO,ENSO,and MJO and where they are. On average for eastern/central N America Lag 0 year-warm Lag 1 year -warm Lag 2 year -warm Lag 3 year warm Lag 4 year- cold (here now) Lag 5 year- cold Lag 6 year-cold Lag 7 year -cold Lag 8 year-cold Lag 9 year- neutral to cold Lag 10 year-warm Lag 11 year -warm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Saturday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:48 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Saturday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:51 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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