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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx
GaWx

I thought this thread and others similar to it are supposed to be for forecast discussion of any aspect of wx that any poster wants to post about rather than being restricted to just discussion of wx

GaWx
GaWx

Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9.   Also, I currently see n

eyewall
eyewall

Happy anniversary to the Carolina Crusher! I took this shot in Southern Pines NC on Midland Road on 1/25/2000

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Nice looking redeveloping +PNA on the Euro ens late! Is it real or is it Memorex? That along with the cold 0Z 12/16 extended GEFS tells me that tomorrow’s Euro Weeklies, which run off the 0Z Euro ens, may be colder in weeks 3-4.

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TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet.

Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat.

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Seminole

Seminole

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat.

Climate Change has happened before and will happen again. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617693898?journalCode=hola

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum#:~:text=The Maunder Minimum occurred within,believed to be volcanic activity.

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jpbart

jpbart

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Agreed but couldn't CC be causing that? Changes globally could be creating an imbalance. I saw a stat that in Charlotte, 4 of the top 5 longest snow droughts have happened in the last 30 years. This was before a recent snow but kind of a wild stat.

Yes, that may be a factor adding instability to the current climate and changing things so previous analog years are less predictive.  The effect is likely small over time currently but it is not well understood so it's effects are hard to pin down.  General consensus is it makes things more extreme, droughts a bit more intense etc. 

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing 

And the bad thing is, it will take a while to break this pattern down. I can already see us here in Mid- January posting about February weeklies looking cold. 

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NorthHillsWx

NorthHillsWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And the bad thing is, it will take a while to break this pattern down. I can already see us here in Mid- January posting about February weeklies looking cold. 

We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years. 

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PackGrad05

PackGrad05

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Wall to wall cold almost never happens down here even in good years.

Agreed.  Snowstorms around here are usually during that short cold period that is surrounded by above normal temperatures...  
The problem is, we aren't able to cash in on these cold streaks when they come.  

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BooneWX

BooneWX

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro ensemble has a very pretty +PNA at the end. Canadian ens does, too, but not the GFS ens.

Came here to say the same about the 12z suite.
 

in hindsight, absolutely zero has changed from previous thoughts over the past week. The only change is that the well predicted and overly advertised post-Christmas warm up went from fantasy land to the mid range. 

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yotaman

yotaman

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Not to discount CC, but this is another thing. It’s progd to be like -100F in Siberia. We just can’t get any cold air on our side of the planet.

Where in the heck do you see that? I just checked for several places there and none are expecting anywhere near that cold. 

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
On 12/16/2024 at 7:48 AM, Met1985 said:

We will continue to see swings and adjustments.  Not worried at all at this point.  We've just got to watch things shake out.

  1. Five years!!  Five years with crappy winters!!  Will you please start worrying so we can get some snow!!!!

     

    Met1985

    We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out.
  2. Yeah I'm not too worried about the warmup at all. Looks like the pattern will reload.
  3. A really weird run from the Euro. Doesn't really drop the hammer with the second system at all. I'm not worried. It will change again tonight.
  4. Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all.
  5. One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried
  6. Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own.
  7. NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good
  8. Yep clouds have broke here also. But im not worried. Lets just get the moisture in here.
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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

This is just.. sad. No cold to be found at the end of December. Above freezing all the way to the Hudson Bay in Canada. 

sfct-imp.conus (5).png

Yeah, sickening really. Other side of Pole below Average. CPF will bring that over if it sets back up but, by the time it mixes with all the warmth it'll probably just bring Temps down to Average wherever it does go. Hopefully, it does set back up and hang before upstream blocking set's up. Some indication the Strat may initiate that so, we definitely don't want blocking set up before cold gets reestablished as it would just lock in the mild air in Canada and the US.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jburns said:

 

  1. Five years!!  Five years with crappy winters!!  Will you please start worrying so we can get some snow!!!!

     

    Met1985

    We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out.
  2. Yeah I'm not too worried about the warmup at all. Looks like the pattern will reload.
  3. A really weird run from the Euro. Doesn't really drop the hammer with the second system at all. I'm not worried. It will change again tonight.
  4. Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all.
  5. One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried
  6. Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own.
  7. NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good
  8. Yep clouds have broke here also. But im not worried. Lets just get the moisture in here.

Lol maybe IV put a hex on everyone east of here! Ok ok. I'm going to start worrying for yall now. Some reverse psychology. 

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BlueRidgeFolklore

BlueRidgeFolklore

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, jburns said:

 

  1. Five years!!  Five years with crappy winters!!  Will you please start worrying so we can get some snow!!!!

     

    Met1985

    We will continue to see swings and adjustments. Not worried at all at this point. We've just got to watch things shake out.
  2. Yeah I'm not too worried about the warmup at all. Looks like the pattern will reload.
  3. A really weird run from the Euro. Doesn't really drop the hammer with the second system at all. I'm not worried. It will change again tonight.
  4. Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all.
  5. One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried
  6. Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own.
  7. NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good
  8. Yep clouds have broke here also. But im not worried. Lets just get the moisture in here.

 

To be fair to Met, the mountains have had a few decent snow events during those years. :D

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